SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 3 March 2021
Medium-term projections prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on COVID-19. It was considered by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and UK Chief Medical Officer on 4 March 2021 during a week in which no SAGE was held, and also presented at the next meeting, SAGE 83 on 11 March 2021.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
These are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data, such as hospital admissions and deaths. With the exception of the potential impact of vaccinations and re-opening of schools, they do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might affect transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission. They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.
Projections are particularly uncertain during periods of transition, for example when significant interventions are introduced or relaxed.
Find out more about medium-term projections.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.