SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections (Draft), 1 September 2020
Draft medium-term projections prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
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Draft medium-term projections from SPI-M-O. This paper was available for participants to read at SAGE 56 on 10 September 2020, but not considered or discussed in the meeting.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
These are draft medium-term projections from individual modelling groups, and should be considered as analyses under development. The approach and presentation in this slidepack may not be consistent with those from later meetings.
These are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data, such as hospital admissions and deaths. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might affect transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission. The potential impact of school opening/closures is included. They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.
Projections are particularly uncertain during periods of transition, for example when significant interventions are introduced or relaxed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.