Policy paper

State of the Nation 2022: Executive summary

Updated 21 July 2022

1. The new Social Mobility Index

1.1 Summary

Our new, improved Social Mobility Index is a measurement framework for social mobility in the UK. It offers a more systematic way to monitor mobility, comparing where people start and end, across a range of outcomes. This includes occupational class, income, and education, at earlier and later stages in their lives.

1.2 Highlights

‘Social mobility’ refers to the link between our starting point in life, and where we end up. When our starting point strongly determines where we end up, mobility is low. But if people from all starting points and backgrounds have a good chance of achieving any outcome, then mobility is high.

The term ‘social mobility’ has been widely used, with a range of different meanings. But to have a useful basis for public discourse and policy, we have to look at a range of clearly defined social mobility outcome measures, consistently over time.

We have developed a new and improved measurement framework that goes well beyond reporting on the drivers of mobility.

Our new index provides, for the first time, a systematic look at social mobility outcomes themselves, and a critical starting point to improve the evidence base. We will focus on the mobility outcome of occupational class, and add further outcomes like income, wealth, education and housing, as the data allows.

We have identified important data gaps, which make reporting on social mobility, and targeting policies on those most in need, more difficult. For example, there is no administrative dataset covering income at the family level.

By reporting mobility measures clearly and up front, we can better define the state of social mobility in the UK and understand where we are doing well, and where we need to improve.

2. Mobility outcomes

2.1 Summary

Most analysis shows that there has been no decline in the rates of absolute or relative occupational mobility for decades, and the UK has good rates when compared internationally.^{[footnote 1]} In contrast, there probably has been a decline in absolute and relative income mobility for people born in the late 1970s and beyond.^{[footnote 2]}

2.2 Highlights

The dominant view in politics and the media has been that social mobility in the UK is in decline and that the UK compares very badly with other countries. But the evidence is not as gloomy as the popular narrative.

The UK’s total occupational mobility rate has remained stable for many decades. This is an absolute measure that gives the percentage of people in a different occupational class from their parents.

In the late 20th century, there was a large surplus of upward over downward mobility, but this surplus is now shrinking, as growth in professional and managerial jobs slows. But this is a sign of success – it is because the professional class has grown so much in the last 70 years.

Relative rates of occupational mobility – the relative chances of people from different backgrounds reaching a particular destination – are not in decline, and may even have improved over decades.

There is less consensus on mobility in other outcomes such as income, wealth, housing and education. Trends in these mobility outcomes may be different. For example, there probably has been a decline in absolute and relative income mobility for people born in the late 1970s and beyond.

3. Intermediate outcomes

3.1 Summary

Intermediate outcomes – a range of mobility outcomes measured earlier in life – do not appear as bleak as sometimes thought. Many gaps between those from professional and working-class backgrounds have narrowed across aspects of education and the labour market. The full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still unlikely to be shown in the data.

3.2 Highlights

The popular narrative of worsening mobility prospects for young people in the UK is not supported when we take a careful look at a range of outcomes across education and employment.

Almost every gap in our intermediate outcomes between young people from higher and lower socio-economic backgrounds has narrowed in the past decade.^{[footnote 3]} There are still disparities, but there has been progress across all measures.

Intermediate outcomes in education and work have been trending in a positive direction. Educational attainment gaps between pupils from higher and lower socio-economic backgrounds have narrowed, especially at key stages 2 and 4.

The gaps between professional and working-class backgrounds for both university participation and degree attainment have also narrowed.

In terms of early career, the gap between people from professional and working-class backgrounds has decreased for most of our occupational and economic outcomes since 2014.

In some cases, there are different trends for men and women. For example, the gap in earnings between women of professional and working-class backgrounds has widened since 2014.

The full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still unlikely to be shown in the data.

4. Drivers of social mobility

4.1 Summary

The drivers, or background conditions that enable social mobility, are also looking positive. Conditions of childhood, opportunities for good-quality education and employment, and social capital (trust and community relationships) are mostly trending positively, and often compare well with other countries. However, some drivers are hard to measure, and the full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still unlikely to be shown in the data.

4.2 Highlights

Trends in the drivers of social mobility over the last 20 years are generally positive.

The conditions of childhood have tended to improve over the past 2 decades, both in terms of finances and parental education levels.

Opportunities for good-quality education and employment have also improved. The UK’s education system has been performing at or above the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average since 2006. Maths, in particular, has improved recently.

Job opportunities are currently high, and youth unemployment has trended downwards since the 2008 financial crisis.

Young people’s median real hourly pay has increased steadily and now exceeds its pre-financial crisis high. The balance of professional over working-class jobs taken by young people has also improved.

Levels of social capital (trust and community relationships) in the UK compare well with those in other countries, although civic engagement has declined since the 1990s, and feelings of safety have decreased sharply from 2020 to 2021.

There are different trends in household finances when we consider the longer term, because income inequality and relative child poverty rose significantly in the 1980s, and have never fallen back to the levels seen in the 1960s and 1970s.

The full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still unlikely to be shown in the data.

1. Absolute measures give the number of people who have experienced mobility. Relative measures compare the chances that at least 2 groups have of reaching, versus avoiding, a particular outcome. ↩

2. Occupational mobility and income mobility are not 2 ways of measuring the same concept. They measure completely different (but correlated) outcomes: the types of jobs people do, and the money they earn. Trends in the 2 may be different. ↩

3. Data for some of our measures only goes as far back as 2014. ↩