Research and analysis

TAG: optimism bias workbook

A workbook of reference class forecast curves that can be used in uncertainty analysis.

• From: Department for Transport
• Published: 19 May 2021
• Last updated: 30 November 2023 — See all updates

Documents

Optimism bias workbook

MS Excel Spreadsheet, 220 KB

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Details

This workbook contains the reference class forecast (RCF) curves produced by Oxford Global Projects, for their research report on updating the optimism bias uplifts used in transport appraisal.

It can be used by promoters to complete additional uncertainty analysis.

TAG provides information on the role of transport modelling and appraisal, and how the transport appraisal process supports the development of investment decisions to support a business case.

Published 19 May 2021
Last updated 30 November 2023 + show all updates

1. 30 November 2023

   Updated workbook.

2. 19 May 2021

   First published.