Policy paper

Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Bill: Reasonable expectation of numbers of individuals present (formerly known as capacity calculations)

Updated 1 November 2024

The legislation requires responsible persons for premises and events to assess a reasonable figure for the number of individuals who can be expected to be in attendance. This assessment will inform if a premises or event is in scope, and if so, whether in the enhanced or standard tier (alongside the other qualifying factors).

Premises will be qualifying premises only where it is reasonable to expect that they will host 200 or more individuals at the same time (from time to time) in connection with any Schedule 1 activities.

Events will be qualifying events only where it is reasonable to expect that they will host 800 or more individuals at the same time at some point during the duration of the event.

The government have moved away from requiring an assessment of the capacity of premises, the approach set out in the draft bill subject to pre-legislative scrutiny, due to its lack of flexibility. Instead, this method enables a more accurate representation of the number of individuals at premises. This provides for a fairer basis for responsible persons to understand whether their premises meet the qualifying thresholds.  

The responsible person can draw from a range of methods when assessing the number of individuals who may reasonably be expected to be present at their premises or event. This includes methods which the responsible person may already be familiar with, e.g. safe occupancy calculations for the purposes of fire safety or use of historic data.

The assessment should take into account the total number of individuals who may reasonably be expected to be at the premises.  

How to establish reasonable expectation of individuals present

The responsible person can use any reasonable method of assessing the number of individuals who may be expected to be present at the premises at the same time, including:

1. Safe occupancy for fire safety purposes

Many types of premises have a safe occupancy number for fire safety purposes (i.e. the number of individuals who may safely be accommodated at the premises). That safe occupancy number is calculated in accordance with the methods set out in relevant guidance. For example, the guidance that accompanies the Building Regulations 2010 sets out two methods to determine how many individuals can safely be accommodated inside a building (or equivalent structures). ^{[footnote 1]}

The first uses floor space factors to establish a maximum density of individuals depending on how that area is used. The second, identifies an exit capacity to determine the maximum number of individuals based on the number and width of exits.  

The lowest figure of the two calculations determines safe occupancy (of individuals) for fire safety. 

A responsible person may assess the number of individuals who can reasonably be expected to be at their premises at the same time based on the number of individuals who can safely be occupied at them. This method of assessment may be suitable in particular in cases where the responsible person does not know the actual numbers of individuals who attend the premises.

Example: A café on the high street, sells food and drink establishes a fire safety risk safe occupancy figure of 250 individuals at the premises, which is often full to capacity. The responsible person assesses that it is reasonable to expect 250 individuals at the premises at the same time.

2. Historic attendance data

Historic data showing actual usage and numbers present at a premises or event can be used to determine reasonable expectation of numbers. Data should reflect whether the standard or enhanced tier threshold has been met.

Example: A large pub’s fire safety risk assessment establishes a safe occupancy figure of 875 individuals at any single point in time. However, the pub’s historic data over the last 12 months shows actual usage by visiting members of the public has reached a maximum of 725 individuals (during seasonal periods, Summer and Christmas).

Using this data, the pub can demonstrate that it meets the standard tier threshold as the number of individuals who might reasonably be expected to be at the pub at the same time did not exceed 725 (over the last year) and is not expected to in its envisaged future usage.

3. Fixed seating and / or standing.

Depending on the nature of the business, the responsible person may use the number of fixed seats and / or fixed standing areas to contribute to an assessment of the number of individuals that it is reasonable to expect.

Example: A restaurant sells food and drink consumed by visiting members of the public in its building and in an area outside which comprises of tables and chairs for this purpose. The fixed seating, for both inside and out, holds a maximum of 450 individuals at any single point in time.

The responsible person assesses that it is often full to peak capacity, and that it is reasonable to expect 450 individuals at the premises at the same time.

4. Tickets and pre-registration

For premises or an event that limits attendance based on the sale of tickets or pre-registered attendees, the maximum number of tickets issued or those registered can be used to establish a reasonable expectation of the numbers of individuals who will attend.

Example: A music event, which is open to the public by purchasing a ticket prior to entry, takes place in a large field. A restriction is placed on the number of tickets issued to 900 individuals at the same time. Tickets are checked by security on entry. The event’s responsible person reasonably expects that 900 individuals reflects the number present when full (at the same time).

Example: A private warehouse decides to hold a one-off event which is open to the public. The event is free, with a requirement that individuals must register online prior to attendance.

The event organiser restricts attendance (through staff controlling the doors) for safety reasons to a maximum of 900 individuals at any one time. The responsible person assesses that it is reasonable to expect 900 attendees at the event.

5. Restrictions 

If a responsible person for premises or an event imposes restrictions on attendance, they can use this figure to determine the number of individuals. For example, a maximum attendance/capacity figure attached to an entertainment licence.

Example: An event takes place in a standard duty qualifying premises (building). The premises does not fall within the exempted categories under Schedule 1. Over the weekend, the premises operator allows a gallery to use their premises to host a one-off art exhibition. The event organiser chooses to restrict the sale of tickets to 900 individuals per day; however, they also choose to stagger attendance.

This means no more than 200 individuals are at the exhibition at any one time. The responsible persons can use this restriction to demonstrate a reasonable expectation of 200 individuals will attend at the same time during the event. This would mean the event would not fall in scope of the bill.

6. Other means of assessing

There may be some premises which cannot use one of the above methodologies (1-5) for various reasons, or to do so would not represent an accurate representation of the actual usage of a premises and the number of individuals that it is reasonable to expect at the same time. Where that is the case, declarations can be undertaken using other means of assessing numbers, together with a justification as to why this is necessary, how the figure has been calculated, and how they know that the figure presents an accurate assessment.

Example: A garden centre consists of a building and a large outdoor area for the display and sale of goods. The operator does not count customer numbers and considers that its fire safety occupancy figure is significantly greater than the numbers who attend at peak times.

It uses its records of things like transactions and assessments of customers who visit without making purchases to provide an assessment of numbers present at the same time (during its busiest trading time).

Premises: Reasonable to expect from time to time

The assessment is as to the number of individuals who may be expected to be at the premises or event at the same time, from time to time. The reference to “from time to time” reflects the fact that many types of premises will experience fluctuations in the number of individuals that they host and will only host more than 200 or 800 individuals occasionally. Some premises may host the relevant number only on certain nights of the week, or at certain times of the year, but overall can reasonably be expected to host the number “from time to time”. Where that is the case, and similar attendance can be expected in the future, the premises will fall within scope.  

Time to time does not refer to an average attendance, for example over a day or a week.   

Example: A responsible person premises may have assessed the number of individuals it is reasonable to expect as 180, but one day it unexpectedly has 250 individuals present. If this is a circumstance which would not have been anticipated, then the premises would remain out of scope.

However, if this becomes a repeat occurrence it can be expected it will fall within the standard tier.

Events reasonable to expect at some point

‘Reasonable to expect at some point’ is an assessment of the number of individuals that are expected to be present at the event. This entails considering the number of individuals expected to attend at the same time at some point over its duration.

Example: An event takes place in a field from Thursday to Sunday, which does not restrict ticket sales. The responsible person uses historical data to ascertain whether their event can reasonably expect 800 individuals to attend at any one point.

The reasonable expectation threshold is met bringing the event in scope for the entire 4 days, even if on some days the 800 threshold is not met.

Considerations when assessing number of individuals at qualifying premises and events

This assessment should include individuals working at a premises or event, unless the methods to establish numbers in attendance are tickets or pre-registration (events only).

Areas not featured in the assessment are the immediate vicinity of a premises or event (such as the pavement used by customers outside the pub’s entrance) and areas not accessible to or not used by members of the public (such as loading bay areas at an arena). As these areas could present vulnerabilities and necessitate security measures or procedures, whilst not applicable to the assessment of attendance figures, responsible for premises and events will be required to consider these areas within their requirements.

Footnotes

1. For example, the Building Regulations Approved Document B (fire safety) Volume 2 (BR ADB) for England and Wales. ↩