National Reference Test annual statement 2023
Published 24 August 2023
Applies to England
© Crown copyright 2023
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Ofqual has today, Thursday 24 August, published the results of the National Reference Test (NRT) in 2023. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) Results Digest shows the 2023 results alongside results from previous years.
Background
In February and March 2023, more than 13,000 year 11 students from over 340 schools in England took the National Reference Test in English and maths, which is administered by NFER. The tests are designed to provide evidence of the performance of 16-year-old students in English and maths. The first live NRT, taken in 2017, was benchmarked against the first awards of the reformed GCSEs in English language and maths, and subsequent tests compare the performance of students with those in previous years.
Results are reported at three grade boundaries – grade 7, grade 5 and grade 4. Results are reported as expected percentages of students achieving those grades (and above) based on changes in performance on the NRT. This report focuses only on grades 7 and 4, since the grade 5 boundary is set arithmetically by exam boards offering GCSEs and would not normally be adjusted.
Results for 2023
The results are shown below. Because this test uses a sample of students, we report ‘confidence intervals’ around the results. These confidence intervals represent the possibility that if we had taken a different sample of students, and each student had taken a different subset of questions, we would get a slightly different result. The results show the changes in the expected percentage of students at the grade 7 and grade 4 boundaries, compared with 2017.
The NRT results are compared with 2017 because this is the baseline year of the NRT, and, with the exception of 2021 and 2022, the year that we have previously compared results with. Reformed GCSEs in English language and maths were first awarded in 2017, and we know that when new assessments are available, performance typically dips in the first year and then subsequently improves. This is known as the sawtooth effect. When considering any changes in performance compared with 2017, we take into account any changes in performance that are typically observed when new qualifications are introduced, as we did when making decisions about using the NRT in 2019 and 2020. For example, were we to see a significant increase in NRT performance compared with 2017, we would need to consider whether this reflected a genuine change in attainment, or whether it reflected those changes in performance that were observed when the GCSE English language and maths specifications were reformed.
The results show that, in English, there is a statistically significant downward change when compared with 2017 at grade 4 (at the 0.01 level of significance).[footnote 1] There are no statistically significant differences in results at any of the other key grades in English or in maths when compared with 2017. These results suggest that performance in English and maths is similar to 2017, the first year of the NRT, with the exception of grade 4 in English, where performance is lower than 2017.
Expected percentage of students at each grade (with associated confidence intervals)
| Subject | Grade 4 and above | Grade 7 and above |
|---|---|---|
| English language 2017 | 69.9 (68.3-71.5) | 16.8 (15.6-18.0) |
| English language 2023 | 66.2 (64.4-67.9) | 17.8 (16.4-19.1) |
| Maths 2017 | 70.7 (69.3-72.1) | 19.9 (18.6-21.2) |
| Maths 2023 | 70.2 (68.7-71.6) | 19.9 (18.7-21.1) |
Using NRT evidence in awarding
The NRT provides an additional source of evidence for exam boards when setting grade boundaries in GCSE English language and maths. Where there is a statistically significant difference in performance, Ofqual can require exam boards to adjust the grade standards when setting GCSE grade boundaries.
In considering the evidence from the NRT, we aim to make sure that:
- our decisions are consistent over time and between subjects, regardless of the direction of any change
- we take account of contextual evidence from the student survey and other sources, and that we act cautiously in making any adjustments to grade standards
- we document and publish the reasons for our decisions
This summer there has been a return to pre-pandemic grading for GCSEs, with protection in place to recognise the disruption that students have faced. While outcomes in English are statistically significantly lower than in 2017 at grade 4, the Chief Regulator decided not to implement a downward change because this would be counter to the wider policy intent of providing protection for students. There were no statistically significant changes in English at grades 5 and 7 compared with 2017, or at any grades in maths.
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There are different levels of statistical significance. A 0.05 significance level indicates a 1 in 20 chance of the difference occurring by chance; at the 0.01 level of significance, that reduces to a 1 in 100 chance. ↩