Research and analysis

Trends and drivers of homicide: Main findings

This report looks at long-term trends and patterns in homicide in England and Wales and other nations with the aim of explaining the trends and drivers.

• From: Home Office
• Published: 5 March 2020
• Last updated: 13 April 2020 — See all updates

Documents

Trends and drivers of homicide: Main findings

Ref: ISBN 978-1-78655-988-3, Home Office Research Report 113

PDF, 976 KB, 80 pages

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Trends and drivers of homicide: Main findings data tables

ODS, 418 KB

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Trends and drivers of homicide main findings: Annexes 1 to 9

PDF, 8.6 MB, 476 pages

Annex 1 data tables

MS Excel Spreadsheet, 128 KB

Annex 2 data tables: International trends

MS Excel Spreadsheet, 73.9 KB

Homicide Index data tables

MS Excel Spreadsheet, 70.5 KB

Mortality statistics data tables

MS Excel Spreadsheet, 45.8 KB

Population data tables

MS Excel Spreadsheet, 164 KB

Technical Annex data tables

MS Excel Spreadsheet, 70.5 KB

Details

The latest statistics on homicide can be found at ‘Crime in England and Wales’ and the latest detailed Homicide Index statistics can be found at ‘Homicide in England and Wales: year ending March 2019’.

This report aims to assess the main drivers of homicide in England and Wales since 1960. It uses data analysis of trends and patterns in England and Wales and also other nations, given the evidence that global trends show a high level of correlation with those in England and Wales. It also includes a rapid evidence assessment of drivers of homicide. This is divided into sections corresponding with the drivers of crime identified in the Modern Crime Prevention Strategy: alcohol, drugs, the effectiveness of the Criminal Justice System, opportunity, character and profit.

The report finds that homicide is a complex crime with many different overlapping categories including alcohol and drug-related cases, gang-related cases, domestic cases, sexually motivated cases and so on. However, careful analysis reveals that homicide trends display clear patterns. Understanding these patterns is important for police, policy-makers and others aiming to reduce homicide. The report tentatively suggests that two trends have driven homicide since 1960: a ‘long wave’ that affected all types of homicide and crime more generally, which possibly suggests a rise and fall in risk factors for offending; and a series of locally-specific ‘short waves’ focused on male-on- male homicides and likely to be connected to gangs, organised crime and illicit drugs.

Published 5 March 2020
Last updated 13 April 2020 + show all updates

1. 13 April 2020

   Added 'Trends and drivers of homicide main findings: Annexes 1 to 9', 'Annex 1 data tables', 'Annex 2 data tables: International trends', 'Homicide Index data tables', 'Mortality statistics data tables', 'Population data tables' and 'Technical Annex data tables'.

2. 5 March 2020

   First published.