Policy paper

UK–Nigeria development partnership summary , July 2023

Published 17 July 2023

This was published under the 2022 to 2024 Sunak Conservative government

Introduction

The Strategy for International Development (IDS) places development at the heart of the UK’s foreign policy. It sets out a new approach to development, anchored in patient, long-term partnerships tailored to the needs of the countries we work with, built on mutual accountability and transparency. This approach goes beyond aid and brings the combined power of the UK’s global economic, scientific, security and diplomatic strengths to our development partnerships.  Our 4 priorities are to deliver honest, reliable investment, provide women and girls with the freedom they need to succeed, step up our life-saving humanitarian work, and take forward our work on climate change, nature and global health. The Integrated Review Refresh (IR23) reiterates that sustainable development is central to UK foreign policy and sets out how the UK will go further and faster on development to reduce poverty and reinvigorate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This Country Development Partnership Summary details how the IDS and IR23 will be put into practice with Nigeria.

Country context

Nigeria is challenging: the largest economy in Africa and one of the world’s largest democracies, but determinedly non-aligned, carefully balancing its interests and relationships. Nigeria is a continental leader and dominates West Africa economically – it has vast economic potential, with the blessing and curse of significant oil revenue. Nigeria is a global player on an upwards trajectory in terms of power and – with its incredible diversity, population growth, economic potential, and cultural reach – will be central to the UK’s thinking on Africa for the next 50 years.

Internally however, Nigeria is a country under increasing stress, struggling to manage 3 primary long-term challenges that are driving instability and fragility, with regional and global implications – conflict and terrorism, climate change, and demography. These issues are further interlinked with secondary challenges, including high levels of extreme poverty, impacting Nigeria’s development, social contract, and stability. Sixty three percent of people in Nigeria (PDF, 17.8 MB) (approx. 133 million people) are poor, taking into account their living standards, health and education, with poverty concentrated in rural areas and Northern Nigeria. Nigeria has some of the worst human development indicators globally (PDF, 5.5 MB) with high levels of social exclusion and gender inequality. The economy remains dependent upon agriculture, with 70% of the population involved in subsistence farming, mostly informal, and low productivity, with one of the lowest human capital levels in the world: a Nigerian child will grow up to achieve just 36% of the productivity (PDF, 9.3 MB) (s)he would have had with full health and education. The inflation rate is predicted to be 20.1% in 2023 and stay in double-digits over the next 5 years. Real annual GDP growth is expected to increase slightly from 3.3% to 4.1% by 2025 with debt increasing as a share of GDP before easing off ^{[footnote 1]}. Long-term endemic and acute risks are likely to deteriorate further. Despite being Africa’s largest democracy, political power is concentrated in a powerful political elite who have been reluctant to make the changes necessary to unleash Nigeria’s potential. Nigeria is the eleventh most fragile state in Africa and 15th of 179 overall. Nigeria’s conflict fatalities are now the 4th highest in the world. Endemic corruption poses a huge challenge to Nigeria’s development and social contract. Nigeria is currently 150th out of 180 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Nigeria loses between $16 billion and $19 billion annually due to illicit financial flows, more than any other African country. These factors impact its internal ability and its influence overseas.

The UK’s objective in Nigeria is to support a more stable, inclusive, resilient, healthy, and prosperous Nigeria that sees the UK as a strategic partner for peace, climate action, trade, and development. Nigeria’s scale and the breadth of our relationship, combined with the new incoming government of President Tinubu in May 2023, provides a unique combination of opportunity and risk, and makes it one of our key partners in Africa. Our shared history and strong people-to-people ties are the foundation of our relationship.

The UK aims to strengthen its relationship with Nigeria and take a long-term, patient, and agile approach. Working within the wider FCDO and HM Government context, the UK is delivering across all 4 of the objectives of IR23, with a focus on partnership and mutual accountability. The UK already has annual bilateral dialogues on issues of shared importance including Security and Defence, Migration, Justice and Home Affairs and Economic Development. Building on this engagement we will agree a joint UK-Nigeria Strategy with the newly elected administration which focuses on areas of mutual interest. We will position the UK as a reliable partner by developing a clear, compelling and consistent whole-of-UK development offer aligned with nationally led plans, specifically Nigeria’s National Development Plan 2021 to 2025 (PDF, 8.1 MB). Our partnership approach is based on political economy-analysis, focused on good governance and long-term reforms as well as sustainable results. To achieve this we are working in partnership with the Federal Government and with several states through jointly agreed Mutually Accountable Frameworks, with the aim of delivering national and state priorities for development and economic growth and to delivering life-saving humanitarian assistance to people in the most severe need.

Our development priorities are rooted in offering a strong UK whole of government offer, delivering the IDS to achieve the SDGs in Nigeria. This includes: supporting job creations and economic growth, including through British Investment Partnerships; providing women and girls with the freedom they need to succeed, including through educating girls and driving progress on sexual and reproductive health and rights; providing urgent humanitarian support to the people who need it most and reforming the way the aid is delivered by others, including the Nigerian government; supporting Nigeria to build resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change and improving global health, including COVID-19 recovery and working towards ending preventable deaths of mothers, babies and children. Underpinning all these challenges is the need to strengthen governance. We continue our governance reform support to unlock reforms across sectors and strengthen the social contract. Addressing conflict, terrorism, insecurity and illicit finance are critical to development, and as such, the UK continues to support Nigeria’s response to its security and corruption challenges.

Why and how: the UK’s development offer with Nigeria

Building on the UK’s full foreign policy toolkit and with the aim to achieve progress on the SDG targets, we have 6 key development objectives:

Governance, social contract and stability

Supporting Nigeria to develop a free, open, peaceful, and inclusive society by addressing drivers of, and reducing, conflict and terrorism, improving security and tackling emerging upstream threats to both Nigeria and the UK, including those in cyberspace - Investment, Trade and Economic Development: contributing to a reduction in poverty by supporting macroeconomic reform; increasing tax revenue, digital and financial inclusion; improving the operating environment for increased trade and investment; and greater productivity of firms and farms.

Climate change, energy transition and nature

Supporting UK and Nigeria’s climate, energy, and nature commitments by supporting implementation of Nigeria’s NDC, National Adaptation Plan and Net Zero commitments, with a focus on Energy Transition, Forestry and Sustainable Agriculture.

Humanitarian

Focusing on food insecurity, protecting civilians, improving the humanitarian response and its prioritisation, and increasing the resilience of people, institutions and markets to withstand a period of protracted crisis.

Health, education and demography

Supporting Nigeria to accelerate its human development, build its human capital and economic productivity, contributing to greater global health security and accelerating its demographic transition.

Lake Chad Basin Conflict

Reducing violence, terrorism and instability through a comprehensive and regional approach that increases commitment to peaceful political settlement, supports longer-term recovery and development, meets immediate humanitarian needs, and protects vulnerable populations.

The development challenge in Nigeria is a governance challenge. With this in mind, our entire approach uses a full HM Government approach to catalyse reform, build Nigerian capability to meet its own needs, increase domestic revenue, deliver improved services, and build a social contract. By supporting Nigeria with our ODA, technical expertise and diplomatic influence, we can help Nigeria to:

• implement economic reform
• improve domestic revenue mobilisation
• strengthen service delivery, transparency, and accountability
• leverage private finance and investment
• create quality jobs, reducing poverty

Given Nigeria has one of the largest numbers of poor people in the world, without progress in Nigeria we cannot achieve the SDGs.

We have been successful in our approach. We have supported the Federal Government in publishing the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and passage of the Climate Change Act 2021, the President signing the Electoral Act Amendment Bill in 2022, an increase in domestic financing for education, a more inclusive National Social Protection Policy, progress toward domestication of the Kampala Convention, funding committed from the Nigerian government to the UN Basket Fund for family planning commodities and restarting the Basic Health Care Provision Fund. Manufacturing Africa Nigeria programme delivered financial investment worth $31 million, predicted to create 1,600 direct jobs, and supported 12 firms expected to attract over $300 million in investment and create over 5,000 direct jobs. These achievements were possible due to interventions from across the UK government, not just FCDO.

Our patient engagement at state level through our State Mutual Accountability Frameworks, reinforced by small ODA investments, has supported growth in domestic resource mobilisation in Jigawa State from £27.5 million (2019) to £43 million (2021) and in Kaduna state from £89 million (2019) to £104 million (2021). Due to its success, we aim to continue our Mutual Accountability Frameworks approach in focus states, expanding into new states and sectors where appropriate and bringing in other donors. Where our development focus is primarily on governance reform, programmes will ‘crowd in’ around an agreed Mutual Accountability Framework that drives reform. Where our focus is primarily not on governance reform, we will be more agile, using resources more flexibly across different geographies.

Who we work with

We hold strong partnerships with key players in the development field in Nigeria as a result of our leadership role in driving forward coordination across the international community. We co-chaired the Nigeria Development Partners Group (NDPG) for 2 years to April 2023 (and continue to provide secretariat support) which represents the majority of bilateral and multilateral partners operating in the country including the international financial institutions. This includes representatives from the UK, US, EU, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, Norway, World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and African Development Bank, and 12 UN Agencies. Through its constituent Technical Working Groups, the NDPG sets high-level priorities, actions, and offers for the attention of the Government of Nigeria. One of the key priorities is to agree on recommendations and offers from the international development community to progress the SDGs in line with the manifesto ambitions of the incoming Federal and State level governments.

In addition, the UK is a founder member of the Key Political Partners Group (KPPG) which is chaired by the UN Resident Coordinator and has the Ambassadors/High Commissioners of Germany, USA, UK, and the EU, the Country Director of the World Bank; the Resident Representative of the IMF; and the co-chairs of the NDPG, through which we have increased impact on wider critical political and policy issues through coordinated advocacy. We have been discussing how to engage the G7 on development issues in Nigeria for example, primarily focusing on green infrastructure investment and energy transition.

Through these 2 groups, HM Government is well positioned to influence the international community and multilateral reform across the key priority areas, aligned with the IDS and IR23. The UK also co-chairs the International Support Group to the Regional Strategy for Stabilisation, Recovery and Resilience in the Lake Chad Basin, and convenes the Ambassadors’ Forum on North East Nigeria, and holds strategic relationships with a broad range of stakeholders beyond government and international organisations, including civil society organisations, women’s rights organisations and organisations for people with disabilities.

Key programmes

To respond to new challenges and priorities whilst remaining committed to delivering quality results, our development portfolio has been reoriented to focus on catalysing reforms across key sectors as well as delivering sustainable results. This approach is more sustainable and impactful, as it drives reform of Nigeria’s governance system which is key in supporting Nigeria to lead its own sustainable development.

The table below summarises our current bilateral programming against our development goals and aligned with our development offer as outlined in the previous sections. Our outcomes are focused on accelerating progress towards the SDGs in Nigeria.

Due to budgetary constraints, we are closing 2 programmes: LINKS, focusing on powering economic growth in Northern Nigeria, and FOSTER which aimed to improve oil sector transparency and reforms.

Goal	Programmes	Outcomes
Governance and stability	PERL* (Partnership to Engage Learn and Reform CSSF NSP (Nigeria Stability Programme)	Supporting governance and social protection reforms, increasing transparency
Humanitarian	HARP* (Humanitarian Assistance & Resilience Programme)	Addressing critical basic food needs, malnutrition treatment, providing support to vulnerable people in the North-East
Economic Development and Energy Transition	UKNIAF (UK Nigeria Infrastructure Advisory Facility)	Supporting energy transition and power sector reform, progressing a portfolio of infrastructure Public Private Partnerships
Health and Education	LAFIYA (UK support for Health in Nigeria) PLANE* (Partnership for Learning for All in Nigerian Education)	Averting maternal and child deaths, health systems strengthening, global health Implementing foundational skills package, increasing access to education
Climate Change and Nature	PROPCOM+ (Supporting economic development in conflict and climate affected regions in Nigeria)	Improving income, nutrition, and climate resilience, climate adaptation
Lake Chad Basin Conflict	CSSF LCB (Lake Chad Basin)	Regional strategy delivering humanitarian, stabilisation, CT, and peace building support to address drivers and impacts of the conflict in the LCB

Note: *top 3 spending programmes

Nigeria is a priority country for many departments and there is considerable bilateral programming, including that of Partners Across Government (PAGs), Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF), and Centrally Managed Programmes (CMPs). We track these interventions in Nigeria which operate across the full spectrum of HM Government engagement at Post. These interventions are well integrated within the Mission and integral to achieving our development objectives and progressing the SDGs. Using our internal governance structures, we build coherence through informed discussion in order to minimise risks of duplication, contradiction, and reputation. We also work closely with Posts in Niger, Cameroon, and Chad to deliver our regional and comprehensive response to the crisis in the Lake Chad Basin.

This map represents HM Government programmatic footprint in Nigeria for 2021 to 2022 (2022 to 2023 spend analysis is still being finalised).

Financial information

Initial allocations have been set internally to deliver the priorities set out in the International Development Strategy (May 2022) and the Integrated Review Refresh 2023, based on the FCDO’s Spending Review 2021 settlement.

The department’s spending plans for the period 2022 to 2023 to 2024 to 2025 have been revisited to ensure HM Government continues to spend around 0.5% of Gross National Income (GNI) on ODA. This was in the context of the significant and unexpected costs incurred to support the people of Ukraine and Afghanistan escape oppression and conflict and find refuge in the UK, and others seeking asylum. The Government provided additional resources of £1 billion in 2022 to 2023 and £1.5 billion in 2023 to 2024 to help meet these unanticipated costs. The Government remains committed to returning ODA spending to 0.7% of GNI when the fiscal situation allows, in line with the approach confirmed by the House of Commons in July 2021.

The country development partnership summaries include the breakdown of programme budgets allocated to individual countries for 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2025. These allocations are indicative and subject to revision as, by its nature, the department’s work is dynamic. Programme allocations are continually reviewed to respond to changing global needs, including humanitarian crises, fluctuations in GNI and other ODA allocation decisions.

It should be noted that these figures do not reflect the full range of UK ODA spending in these individual countries as they do not include spend delivered via core contributions to multilateral organisations, or regional programmes delivered by the FCDO’s central departments. Other UK Government departments also spend a large amount of ODA overseas. Details of ODA spent by other UK government departments can be found in their Annual Report and Accounts and the Statistics for International Development.

FCDO ODA allocation

These figures reflect bilateral programming ODA allocation only:

Allocated ODA budget financial year 2023 to 2024: £72.3 million.

Indicative ODA budget financial year 2024 to 2025: £120 million.

Of ongoing multi-year ODA programmes in FCDO Nigeria, 8 of 9 are marked as being principally or significantly focused on gender equality, and 5 of 9 are marked as being principally or significantly focused on disability inclusion.

Figure 1. 2023 to 2024: Climate, 40%; Humanitarian, 37%; Women and Girls, 23%

1. World Bank Nigeria Development Update, Seizing the Opportunity, June 2023. ↩