Guidance

UKSPF randomised controlled trials: expression of interest guidance

Updated 16 October 2024

This document contains guidance for local authorities who wish to submit proposals for DLUHC to evaluate one or more of their UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF) projects through a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Interested local authorities should complete and submit to UKSPFenquiries@levellingup.gov.uk an expression of interest (EOI) form by 10 May 2023.

Background to the UKSPF evaluation

The UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF) is a central pillar of the UK government’s ambitious Levelling Up agenda and a significant component of its support for places across the UK. It provides £2.6 billion of new funding for local investment by March 2025 with the primary goal to build pride in place and increase life chances across the UK.

DLUHC have published the UKSPF evaluation strategy alongside this guidance, which sets out how the UKSPF’s impacts and processes will be evaluated at the programme, place and intervention levels.

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) will make up one component of the UKSPF intervention-level evaluation as set out in the strategy. The RCTs will aim to:

• build the evidence base on ‘what works’ for local projects for pride in place, life chances and local growth in the most methodologically robust way possible
• help DLUHC, local authorities and other stakeholders better understand how to best spend future funds and design local projects to achieve maximum positive impact
• support LLAs in developing their local evidence base and evaluation capacity, alongside providing a DLUHC-funded opportunity to demonstrate the impact of their projects

Following publication of the strategy, DLUHC are now launching an expression of interest (EOI) process to allow local authorities to put forward UKSPF projects for consideration as RCTs.

This guidance sets out why we are using RCTs to support UKSPF evaluation, the benefits for local authorities who choose to apply, and how the EOI process will work in practice.

What are RCTs and why are they valuable?

RCTs are an evaluation method used to evaluate the impact of a specific project by randomly assigning participants to either receive a given project (the treatment group) or not (the control group). This approach helps to establish causal relationships between inputs and outcomes and is considered the ‘gold standard’ for impact evaluation.

In the context of local growth interventions, RCTs can support evidence-based policy making by identifying the most effective projects for specific places and allocating future funding more efficiency toward them. The UKSPF is interested in using RCTs as a tool to complement wider efforts to assess the impacts of different project types at a more granular level, rather than looking at broader groups of similar projects across multiple places.

Ultimately, RCTs provide a rigorous and evidence-based approach to evaluating the impacts of projects and can help to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of policy and funding decisions.

What types of UKSPF projects are suitable for RCT evaluation?

DLUHC anticipates that projects within the ‘people and skills’ UKSPF investment priority are most likely to be suitable for RCT designs. This is because they often involve a specific project aimed at improving skills and employment outcomes and can be easily isolated and randomised by controlling who can access the project. Projects in this category may include training programs, apprenticeships, mentorship opportunities, and job placement services.

Such projects could be evaluated by comparing the employment and income outcomes of participants who received the training versus those who did not, allowing determination of causal impacts.

Not all projects under the UKSPF will be suitable for an RCT approach, particularly those that are infrastructure-focused and area-based. In these cases, construction of treatment and control groups is challenging if not impossible, as access to the benefits of the project cannot be controlled at the individual level.

To help places understand whether their proposed projects are suitable for RCTs, DLUHC will hold a webinar and subsequent series of advice calls during the EOI window. Further details can be found in the below sections.

How will government work with local authorities to deliver the RCTs?

DLUHC will provide expert contractor support and funding for the design, implementation, and impact evaluation of up to 10 RCTs. The contractor will be responsible for designing and delivering the trials, as well as providing a process report that examines the relationship between the observed impacts, the project delivery, and the wider context of the project’s implementation.

Participating local authorities will also have the flexibility to reallocate their existing funding allocation towards their 4% administrative budget to cover any additional costs incurred by participating in the RCTs. The process for submitting expressions of interest has been kept as streamlined as possible, consisting of completing a simple form and attending a series of optional engagement sessions before the deadline.

While local authorities will be required to assist the contractor in delivering certain aspects of the RCTs - such as identifying participants for control groups or sharing relevant data on outcomes and outputs - this will be kept to a minimum wherever possible. To ensure overall responsibilities are kept proportionate, local authorities’ participation in RCTs will also be considered when selecting places for participation in other parts of the evaluation.

Overall, DLUHC’s support will enable local authorities to evaluate the effectiveness of their projects, understand why they did or didn’t work, and make informed decisions about allocating and delivering local growth intervention in the future.

How will UKSPF projects be selected for RCTs?

Interested local authorities should complete and submit the EOI template to DLUHC by 10 May 2023.

Submissions will then be assessed by DLUHC and the relevant evaluation contractor, with input from the What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth (WWG) and the Cabinet Office Evaluation Task Force, following which a decision will be made on which RCTs will be developed into full proposals by the evaluation contractor. DLUHC aims to prioritise proposals that have a good level of statistical power, ensuring that the trials have sufficient strength to generate robust results. Feedback will be available for both successful and unsuccessful proposals.

During the EOI window, DLUHC will run a number of attendance-optional engagement events for local authorities to ask questions about the process and to develop their proposals. These will consist of:

• an introductory webinar: for local authorities to learn more about how the RCTs will work in practice, how places will be expected to assist the contractor, and what DLUHC is looking for in the EOI form
• advice calls: for local authorities to request up to an hour of one-to-one time with the WWG to ask more technical questions, develop proposals and request early feedback on RCT feasibility. Advice call slots are limited, available on a first come, first serve basis and the booking link with be circulated to local authorities shortly.

Places’ submissions will be assessed based on the completed EOI form only and assessment will not be influenced by material presented during the advice calls.

Timeline

Table 1 below sets out indicative timelines for the RCT selection process and subsequent route to delivery. Timings for the final two stages are indicative subject to ongoing procurement of an evaluation contractor. Places who submit applications will be informed of any changes to timelines as appropriate.

Stage	Timing	Description
Introductory webinar	16 March	Optional for places to attend to learn more about DLUHC’s plan for RCTs and how to develop and submit proposals
Advice calls with the What Works Centre	Available dates (first come, first served): 23 March 30 March 4 April 18 April 25 April	Optional for places to request an advice call (up to 1 hour) with WWG to discuss their proposals and how to develop them in advance of submitting the EOI
Expression of Interest deadline	Submission deadline 10 May	Places interested in putting forward their projects must complete and submit the EOI form by the deadline
DLUHC and contractor decide on proposals to take forward	Late May early June	Places will be informed of DLUHC’s decision in response to their EOI submission
Contractor works with places to develop full RCT proposals	June onwards	Successful places will work with DLUHC and evaluation contractors to develop their EOIs into full proposals, and subsequently commence RCT fieldwork alongside delivery of the project itself