Research and analysis

Mid Wales: UKSPF summary evaluation plan

Published 4 April 2025

Applies to Wales

Summary of the local place

Mid Wales covers the local authority areas of Ceredigion and Powys, forming one of four economic regions in Wales. Home to 207,489 people, 7% of Wales’ population^{[footnote 1]}, it includes a university town in Aberystwyth, other coastal and market towns, and rural communities^{[footnote 2]}.

Map of Mid Wales

In 2021, the two local authorities, along with Welsh Government and wider regional stakeholders agreed a Regional Economic Framework^{[footnote 3]} that identified shared values and ways of working, including inclusivity, trust, openness, collaboration, whole system thinking, appetite for change, asset-based approaches, shared ownership, continuous development and community-based action.

The United Kingdom Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF) Investment Plan for Mid Wales^{[footnote 4]} comprises £35 million of core UKSPF funding with a relatively even split of investment across the priorities of business support (£14 million), people & skills (£7 million), and communities & place (£14 million). In addition, there is £7 million of Multiply programme funding (taking this to £42 million in total, alongside the core UKSPF funding).

Unit of analysis

It is proposed that the evaluation focuses on one main intervention type from across each of the three main investment priorities, reflecting the large scale of the programme and a relatively even split of funds across each. These interventions cover the whole of Mid Wales, therefore geographically the case study will focus on the entire region. The selected units of analysis will allow for evaluation of the effectiveness of the Mid Wales model.

• Business Support Grants – With 100+ businesses expected to be supported across business support grants in Powys and Ceredigion, there is in theory the potential for sufficient scale of activity to undertake a counterfactual impact evaluation comparing growth and development indicators in supported businesses with equivalent indicators for a matched comparison group of non-supported businesses.
• Enhanced Community Infrastructure – Community infrastructure investments have comprised investment in sport and leisure infrastructure such as enhanced sport pitches and fitness equipment, as well as improvements to green and blue infrastructure such as enhanced pathways and open spaces in communities in Ceredigion and Powys. The main opportunity would be to focus evaluation on key sites where new investment was made and use the Your Community, Your Say survey to test changes around specific local sites which received new investment. Impacts captured could relate to health, wellbeing and quality of life.
• Digital Connectivity and Skills – Focusing on how improved digital infrastructure (e.g. broadband networks, internet exchange points (IXPs); cell towers and base stations for mobile coverage) can affect employment, business and personal outcomes and how the development of digital skills aids this process.

Methodological approach

Process evaluation

To address the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) and Mid Wales’ learning needs, the study will include a process evaluation. The purpose of the process evaluation is to answer questions on the relevance, efficiency and effectiveness of fund design and interventions, and the efficiency and effectiveness of processes used to manage and deliver UKSPF. The approach to the process evaluation will include:

• a review of the evolution of the local context at the interim and final stages
• analysis of Monitoring Information (MI) to gather evidence on the progress of Mid Wales’ delivery of the programme
• stakeholder and beneficiary qualitative research to explore the set-up and implementation of the UKSPF investment in Mid Wales
• a review of secondary data sources demonstrating the scale of local challenges Mid Wales compares to other Welsh regions

Impact evaluation

Quasi-experimental design (QED) approaches have been considered for each of the three elements of the evaluation, with the following conclusions.

• Business Support Grants – it is assessed that QED is viable. This would be based on analysis of supported businesses compared with a matched comparison group, using a difference in difference analysis approach. By using a survey approach, this will also allow us to capture more qualitative understanding of impacts for supported businesses, alongside net income and employment impacts.
• For Enhanced Community Infrastructure and Digital Connectivity and Skills – it is assessed that QED would not be viable due to the nature of the interventions and outcomes to be measured. However, for the Enhanced Community Infrastructure intervention, a comparative approach, using the Your Community, Your Say survey in intervention areas and comparator areas is feasible.

Across all three investment priorities, a Contribution Analysis impact evaluation method is proposed (with the QED providing complementary evidence for the case of the Business Support Grants strand). This will allow for assessment of the changes in key outcome indicators relating to each intervention type, and an analysis of the contribution made to those changes by UKSPF funded activities.

Economic evaluation

It is proposed that the economic evaluation will follow the 4E’s approach set out by the National Audit office, considering economy, efficiency, effectiveness and equity of the programme investments. Where possible, this will incorporate cost effectiveness analysis drawing on the net additional impact analysis from the quasi-experimental design relating to the Business Support Grants and Enhanced Community Infrastructure interventions.

Data to support the evaluation

The following data sources will be used across the three main strands of the impact evaluation:

Primary data collection

Business Support Grants	Enhanced community infrastructure	Digital Connectivity and Skills
■ Stakeholder consultation (strategic and delivery) ■ Surveys of supported businesses (stratified sampling approach to cover different support types) ■ Surveys of non-supported businesses (i.e. those applying but unsuccessful)	■ Stakeholder consultation (strategic and delivery)	■ Stakeholder consultation (strategic and delivery) ■ Surveys of supported individuals

Secondary data sources

Business Support Grants	Enhanced community infrastructure	Digital Connectivity and Skills
■ ONS data on business counts, employment, business births, deaths and survival rates.	■ Your Community, Your Say survey on sense of wellbeing as a result of access to facilities	■ Tech UK – Local Digital Index 2023

1. Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (2023) – accessed from Nomis (2024) ↩

2. Mid Wales UKSPF Investment Plan ↩

3. Available at: https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2023-02/mid-wales-regional-economic-framework.pdf ↩

4. Available at: https://www.growingmid.wales/article/13973/Mid-Wales-Regional-Investment-Plan-for-the-UK-Shared-Prosperity-Fund-2022-25#:~:text=The%20Mid%20Wales%20Regional%20Investment%20Plan ↩