University of Warwick: COVID-19 vaccine impact forecast, 13 January 2021
Forecast paper prepared by the University of Warwick on the impact of vaccinations at SAGE 76.
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Paper from University of Warwick on vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) scenarios. This paper was presented at SAGE 76 on 14 January 2021.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the corresponding contribution from Imperial College London potential profile of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK under different vaccination roll out strategies, and the SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on COVID-19, both also released under SAGE 76.
Both this and the corresponding paper from Imperial consider the potential impact on the epidemic under a number of scenarios exploring vaccine roll-out and efficacy assumptions, and relaxation of NPIs.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Please note that there is a small typo at the top of page 2. The sentence “We additionally test scenarios with disease efficacy reduced by 66%” should read “to 66% of the default”, in line with all other references to this sensitivity analysis in the paper.”