Research and analysis

University of Warwick: Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England, 23 December 2021

Paper prepared by the University of Warwick.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 7 January 2022

Documents

University of Warwick: Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England, 23 December 2021

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307v1

Details

Paper prepared by the University of Warwick on the B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of concern. This paper was available for participants to read at SAGE 101 on 23 December 2021, but not considered or discussed in the meeting. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

This paper should be read alongside the accompanying papers from SAGE 101:

• SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on COVID-19, 22 December 2021
• Imperial College London: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England, 22 December 2021
• University of Edinburgh, PHS and EAVE II: SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Protection in Scotland: ​Omicron, 22 December 2021
• LSHTM: Omicron scenarios:​ 28 December restrictions​, 22 December 2021
• University of Warwick: Omicron Modelling, 22 December 2021

See more information on:

• what epidemiological modelling is and how it is used by government
• epidemiological modelling frequency asked questions
• more information on SPI-M modelling and medium-term projections.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 7 January 2022