Using BBC Pandemic data to model the impact of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of Covid-19 in different settings, 16 April 2020
Paper considered by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Paper by academics on using BBC Pandemic data to model the impact of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of COVID-19 in different settings. It was considered at SAGE 26 on 16 April 2020.
These results should not be interpreted as a forecast, but rather illustrative outputs under a set of assumptions to inform wider discussion. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
You can see a preprint of the paper.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.