Vision for a 10x economy: horizon scanning
Published 29 August 2024
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Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland’s Department for the Economy developed a horizon scanning tool to identify emerging opportunities around key enabling technologies.
What was the challenge?
In 2021, Northern Ireland’s Department for the Economy launched a new economic strategy with a 10-year time horizon. The strategy – Vision for a 10X Economy: A Decade of Innovation – is focussed on strengthening Northern Ireland’s capabilities in key technologies where it has the potential to be world class and to develop global leadership capabilities.
The strategy identifies eight enabling technologies. While each individual technology can increase innovation and competitiveness on its own, the real growth potential is realised when they are supported to combine and form clusters of activity in the economy.
The challenge was to develop an interactive and updateable horizon scanning tool which the Department and its partners could use to:
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Spot emerging opportunities in each enabling technology area
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Model emerging clusters
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Identify – and capture – future strategic opportunity.
The Leading Innovation Horizon Scan was developed to support these activities.
What was the approach?
The scan was developed in collaboration with the Economic Strategy Branch of the Department for the Economy and their Matrix Panel which carries out technology foresighting. The Matrix panel is comprised of industry experts in key technologies who were able to provide guidance on the current state of technology in Northern Ireland and the emerging areas to explore further. The main project tasks were:
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To provide a scanning document which set out individual scanning articles relevant to each key technology
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To identify and include linkages to more detailed research reports related to each key technology
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To enable users to look for linkages between technologies and navigate the material in a non-linear way to support those connections.
The scanning team was small, comprised of three scanners; one sat within the Department and the other two scanners were contracted researchers. In this respect, the exercise differed from scanning programmes designed to engage a wider group of stakeholders.
There was no single research question. Instead, the parameters of the scan were defined by the strategic framework set out in Vision for a 10X Economy. Scanners therefore looked for medium- to long-term trends and developments relating to each of the enabling technologies and sectors.
The scan was developed over the course of two months. Scanners utilised a range of national and international sources, such as:
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News and current affairs websites – including Financial Times, BBC, Forbes, Wired, New York Times, Fast Company
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Sectoral organisations – including Composites UK, renews.biz, Institute of Mechanical Engineers and the International Federation of Robotics
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Business – including Visa, Intel, Microsoft, IBM, PWC, Deloitte and Ford Motor Company
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Academia – including University of Oxford, University of Glasgow, Harvard, University of Bristol, MIT and University of Exeter
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Others – including the World Economic Forum, UK and international governments, Royal Society, UNDP, OECD and the Ellen McArthur Foundation.
Rather than search for topics by key word, the initial search criteria tended to be more generic (“future development of AI” for example, or “digital currency: where next?”). These initial searches were not expected to lead directly to meaningful scans, but to help the research team spot common themes or build their understanding of the emerging issues. Over several iterations, the team refined their search criteria (“Deploying AI to deliver better public services in the future” for example, or “Central bank digital currency – opportunity or threat?”) to identify articles of potential interest.
How are the horizon scans presented?
The Leading Innovation Horizon Scan gathers together 79 research reports and 111 individual horizon scans which are organised by enabling technology. Readers can move around the document following internal links that take them to the technologies they are interested in. Clicking on a report title will take the reader to that report on the web.
There is also an accompanying website containing all the materials.
In addition, each of the scanning assets is set out on a Miro board that cross-disciplinary teams can use to explore linkages between technologies and to cluster ideas and scans, to identify newly emerging opportunities and areas for further futures research.
The published report can be found here: Leading innovation - introduction horizon scan for a 10x economy.
What was the impact?
There is an increased focus in the Department for the Economy on the technologies in Vision for a 10X Economy and the report has supported wider conversations across the department about the technology clusters, how they are likely to develop, and the implications for policy and implementation.
A variety of external bodies have also accessed the scan to promote discussion (particularly in the innovation landscape) about how Northern Ireland best responds to the changing world while targeting those areas where it has strength.
The scan can be updated with new technologies and developments in the future.
Written by Waverley Consulting for GO-Science, 2023.