Research and analysis

Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: February 2025 summary

Updated 12 March 2025

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

1. Summary

February was a fairly normal month, with rainfall varying between 58% and 97% of the long term average (LTA) in the 6 catchments. On average, the Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area (LNA) received 30mm of rainfall, which was 78% of the LTA. Rainfall was classified as normal in all catchments apart from the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme, which was below normal. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) slightly increased in all hydrological areas. By the end of February, the area had an SMD of 2mm, which falls within the below normal category for this time of year. River flows at most sites responded in line with the rainfall received across February. Monthly mean river flows ranged from 62% to 131% of the LTA, with classifications ranging from normal to above normal.  Following the normal level of rainfall across LNA in February, the groundwater level trend showed a slight decline at all indicator sites except Grainsby. All reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves.

2. Rainfall

Overall, February brought normal levels of rainfall, with an average total of 30mm, which was 78% of the LTA for Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire. Rainfall was distributed throughout the month, but 6 days (7, 8, 10, 15, 23, and 24 February) accounted for approximately 76% of the month’s total rainfall. Throughout the month, the frontal system did not give catchment rainfall totals higher than 8mm during any single event. Rainfall totals were normal in all catchments except Louth Grimsby and Ancholme which was classified as below normal. The lowest rainfall was in the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme with 23mm (58% of the LTA), and the highest rainfall was in the Upper Welland and Nene with 40mm (97% of the LTA).

Three-month rainfall totals showed normal levels of rainfall in all 6 hydrological areas. This is a decrease from January’s report, which showed normal to above normal levels of rainfall in all catchments. The 6-month and 12-month long-term rainfall maps reflect a north-south trend, with higher totals received in the south compared to the north.  All hydrological areas show normal or higher levels of rainfall during these periods.

3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge

Due to the below normal to normal levels of rainfall received across the area in February, SMD slightly increased in all 6 hydrological areas. The lowest levels of SMD were observed in the Upper Welland and Nene (1.3mm), whilst the highest levels were observed in the Ancholme Grimsby Louth (3.8mm). On average, SMD for the area increased from 1.3mm at the end of January to 2mm by the end of February. This figure is within the below normal range for the time of year. The SMD difference-to-LTA (mm) map in the full report show most hydrological areas are in the -25mm to -6mm category, indicating that they are slightly wetter than normal for the time of year. The only exceptions are the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme and Steeping Great Eau and Long areas that are in the -5mm to 5mm category, meaning the soils are within the field capacity range, and there is little or no water shortage.

4. River flows

At most sites river flow responded in line with the amount of rainfall received. Monthly mean river flows ranged from 62% to 131% of the LTA, and from normal to above normal classification. Ashley (Welland) was classified as above normal, whilst the remaining 11 sites were classified as normal. Ashley (Wellend) and Wansford (Nene) levels show no change in banding since January 2025.

5. Groundwater levels   

Following the normal level of rainfall across LNA in February, the groundwater level trend showed a slight decline at all indicator sites except Grainsby, ending the month with 3 sites classified as above normal, 4 sites as normal, and one site (Grange de Lings) as below normal.  Barton Horkstow Road and Leasingham Exploratory show no change in banding since the previous month, and the Burnham banding remained unchanged since November 2024.

6. Reservoir stocks

All reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves. Previously, Covenham had been below the normal operational curve for a sustained period.

7. Environmental impact 

During February, there were no flood alerts or flood warnings issued. All transfer schemes remained off throughout February. No licence cessations were issued.

8. Forward look

8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites

March 2025: All sites are showing a slightly increased probability of greater than normal flows with none of the modelled rainfall scenarios showing exceptionally/notably low level.

June 2025: The 2 Nene sites are showing increased probabilities of normal flows. North Brook is showing a reduced probability of extreme flows (both high and low).

8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

March 2025: All sites are showing a greatly increased probability of normal levels.

September 2025: All sites are showing a reduced probability of exceptionally/notably low levels.

Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report

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