Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: July 2024 summary
Updated 14 August 2024
Applies to England
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1. Summary
The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received an average rainfall of 69mm in July, which was 141% of the LTA. The rainfall in July fell mostly in the first 2 weeks with a drier end to the month. Rainfall across the area ranged from 59mm to 79mm (119% to 161% of the LTA), meaning the catchments received normal to above normal rainfall for the time of year. Soil moisture deficit responded in line with the rainfall received across July. The area as a whole ended the month with an SMD of 101mm, in comparison to 84.4mm at the end of June. This figure is still within the normal range for the time of year. Monthly mean river flows ranged from 84% to 162% of the LTA, and from normal to notably high classification. Groundwater levels remained at above normal to notably high levels at all sites except Dunholme Road Scothern, which recorded normal levels. Groundwater trends showed a slight decline at all indicator sites. All reservoirs in the area ended the month either at or above their normal operating curves.
2. Rainfall
The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received an average rainfall of 69mm, which was 141% of the LTA; however, most rain fell in the first half of the month, with almost 75% across 3 days (5, 8 and 15 July). July rainfall showed a slight east-west divide, with eastern catchments generally receiving higher rainfall than those in the west of the area. Rainfall across the area ranged from 59mm to 79mm (119% to 161% of the LTA), meaning the catchments received normal to above normal rainfall for the time of year. Following July’s rainfall, the 3-month total is now showing that the catchments have received normal to above normal levels of rainfall. This is an increase from June’s report which showed normal levels of rainfall in all catchments. The last 6 months’ rainfall totals show exceptionally high levels in most all of the hydrological areas (except for the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme catchment which showed as notably high). The record-breaking rainfall totals over winter are still having an impact on the long-term analysis with the last 12 months rainfall totals in all catchments still being exceptionally high during these periods.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
Soil moisture deficit responded in line with the rainfall received across July. SMD decreased in the first half of the month when the month’s main rainfall fell but saw an increase again towards the end of the month when the latter half of the month was dry. The area as a whole ended the month with an SMD of 101mm, in comparison to 84.4mm at the end of June. This figure is still within the normal range for the time of year.
4. River flows
Monthly mean river flows ranged from 84% to 162% of the LTA, and from normal to notably high classification. In most sites river flow responded in line with the amount of rainfall received in July. Two of the 10 sites were considered to be normal, 3 at above normal levels while the remaining 5 sites were classified as notably high.
5. Groundwater levels
Following the normal levels of rainfall and SMD across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area in July, groundwater levels remained above normal or higher at all sites except Dunholme Road Scothern, but trend showed a slight decline at all indicator sites. Most groundwater level shows no change in banding since June 2024, except Dunholme Road Scothern and Grange Farm Aswarby sites. Overall, at all sites with data, groundwater levels were classified as normal to notably high for the time of year.
6. Reservoir stocks
All reservoirs in the area ended the month either at or above their normal operating curves.
7. Environmental impact
The Trent-Witham–Ancholme (TWA) transfer scheme has been in use during July. Pumping started on the 2 July. During July water has been pumped into the Ancholme from the Witham at Short Ferry while transfer from the Trent into Witham at Torksey remained off throughout July. Both the Gwash-Glen and Slea Augmentation schemes remained off in July. There were 2 HOFs (hands off flow) active during July: 2 in the River Steeping catchment. There were 3 flood alerts and no flood warnings issued.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
September 2024: There is an increased probability of normal or higher flows.
December 2024: All sites are showing a decreased probability of river flows being notably low or exceptionally low.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
September 2024: All sites are showing an increased probability of groundwater levels being normal or higher with none of modelled rainfall scenarios showing below normal to exceptionally low levels.
March 2025: All sites are showing a decreased probability of groundwater levels being notably low or exceptionally low.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report
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