Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: June 2024 summary
Updated 12 July 2024
Applies to England
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1. Summary
Following 9 months of consecutive above average rainfall, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received below average rainfall of 31mm, which was 58% of the long term average (LTA). Rainfall for June across the area ranged from 20mm to 49mm (37% to 88% of the LTA), meaning the catchments received below normal to normal rainfall for the time of year. As a result of the below average rainfall and increasing temperatures, there was a general trend of increasing soil moisture deficits (SMD) across the 6 catchments, with all sites having normal levels for the time of year. Mean monthly river flows ranged from 68% to 237% of their LTA’s, and from normal to notably high classification. Despite below normal levels of rainfall and normal levels of SMD across the area in June, groundwater remained high, but trend showed a slight decline at all indicator sites. Reservoirs in the area ended the month either at or above their normal operating curves.
2. Rainfall
June was a drier than average month, the Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received below average rainfall of 31mm, which was 58% of the LTA. A large amount of June’s rainfall fell in the second week of the month. Rainfall for June across the area ranged from 20mm to 49mm (37% to 88% of the LTA), meaning the catchments received below normal to normal rainfall for the time of year. The rainfall showed a North-South divide, with the 2 most southern catchments receiving below normal rainfall whilst the remaining four catchments experienced normal levels of rainfall. The highest totals from this event were in the north which led to the monthly totals being higher in the north than in the south. The rainfall totals for the past 3 months have now dropped into the normal category for all catchments. The north-south divide is also observed in the 6 months total which showed the northern catchments receiving notably high rainfall whilst the 2 most southern catchments have received exceptionally high levels of rainfall. The record breaking rainfall totals over winter are still having an impact on the long term analysis with the last 12 months’ rainfall totals in all catchments still being exceptionally high during these periods.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
As a result of the below average rainfall and increasing temperatures, there was a general trend of increasing SMD across the 6 catchments, with all sites having normal levels for the time of year. The area as a whole ended the month with SMD of 84mm, compared to 27mm at the end of May.
4. River flows
Monthly mean river flows ranged from 68% to 237% of their LTA, and from normal to notably high classification. In most sites river flow responded in line with the amount of rainfall received in June, of the 10 sites:
- one was considered to be notably high
- 3 were at normal levels
- 6 sites were classified as above normal
5. Groundwater levels
Despite below normal levels of rainfall and normal levels of SMD across the area in June, groundwater remained high, but the trend showed a slight decline at all indicator sites. Overall, at all sites with data, groundwater levels were classified as above normal to notably high for the time of year.
6. Reservoir stocks
All reservoirs in the area ended the month either at or above their normal operating curves.
7. Environmental impact
All transfer schemes remained off throughout June. No licence cessations were issued.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
September 2024: There is an increased probability of normal or higher flows with none of modelled rainfall scenarios showing notably low levels at Nene Northampton and Nene Wansford.
December 2024: All sites are showing a decreased probability of river flows being notably low or exceptionally low.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
September 2024: All sites are showing an increased probability of groundwater levels being normal or higher with none of modelled rainfall scenarios showing below normal to exceptionally low levels.
March 2025: All sites are showing a decreased probability of groundwater levels being notably low or exceptionally low.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report
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