Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: May 2024 summary
Updated 21 June 2024
Applies to England
© Crown copyright 2024
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports/lincolnshire-and-northamptonshire-water-situation-may-2024-summary
1. Summary
The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received above average rainfall of 63mm in May, which was 124% of the long term average (LTA). Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) increased in all 6 catchments but saw a slight decrease again towards the end of the month. The area as a whole ended the month with an SMD of 27mm. Mean monthly flows ranged from 127% to 314% of the LTA which were classified from above normal to exceptionally high for the time of year. In response to above normal levels of rainfall across the area, groundwater levels remained high. At all sites with data, groundwater levels were classified as normal to notably high for the time of year. Reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves with the exemption of Covenham and Ruthland which remained slightly below target.
2. Rainfall
The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received above average rainfall of 63mm, 124% of the LTA during May of which 56mm fell in the last 2 weeks of the month. This is now the ninth month in succession with above average rainfall. It has been the wettest September to May period across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire since records began in 1871. The highest levels of rainfall were in the Lower Welland and Nene (69.6mm, 136% of the LTA) and South Forty Foot and Hobhole catchments (66.6mm,133% of the LTA). Four of the 6 hydrological areas were classified as above normal. The Upper Welland and Nene and Louth Grimsby and Ancholme were classified as normal levels of rainfall for the time of year.
The last 3 months rainfall totals showed above normal levels in almost all of the hydrological areas (except for the Upper Welland and Nene and Witham to Chapel Hill catchments which showed as notably high in the 3-month map). The record breaking rainfall totals over winter are still having an impact on the long term analysis with the last 6 months and the last 12 months rainfall totals in all catchments still being exceptionally high during these periods.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
Soil moisture deficit responded in line with the rainfall received across May; SMD increased in all 6 catchments but saw a slight decrease again towards the end of the month, when the month’s main rainfall fell. The area as a whole ended the month with an SMD of 27mm, in comparison to 13mm at the end of April. This figure is still within the below normal range for the time of year.
4. River flows
River flows remained relatively high at all key indicator sites. Mean monthly flows ranged from 127% to 314% of the LTA, and from above normal to exceptionally high classification. In most sites river flow responded in line with the amount of rainfall received in May. The River Glen returned an exceptionally high classification for the time of year and moving from above normal to exceptionally high.
5. Groundwater levels
Following the above normal levels of rainfall and below normal SMD across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area in May, groundwater remained high, but trend showed a slight decline at all indicator sites. However, at most sites groundwater levels show no change in banding since April 2024 except groundwater level at Dunholme Road Scothern which moved from normal to above normal classification and Hanthorpe which moved from exceptionally high to notably high classification. Overall, at all sites with data, groundwater levels were classified as normal to notably high for the time of year.
6. Reservoir stocks
With the exception of Covenham and Ruthland, reservoirs the area ended the month above their normal operating curves. The levels at Covenham was 5% below target curve and Rutland was 1% below target curve in April, however levels are not alarmingly low (around 1995 to 96 operational curve).
7. Environmental impact
All transfer schemes remained off throughout May. There were no cessation notices issued due to the high flows. There were 5 flood alerts. There were no flood warnings issued.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
June 2024: There is an increased probability of normal or higher flows with none of modelled rainfall scenarios showing notably low levels at Nene Northampton and Nene Wansford.
September 2024: All sites are showing a decreased probability of river flows being notably low or exceptionally low.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
September 2024: All sites are showing an increased probability of groundwater levels being normal or higher with none of the modelled rainfall scenarios showing notably or exceptionally low levels.
March 2025: All sites are showing a decreased probability of groundwater levels being notably low or exceptionally low.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report
Contact details: 03708 506 506