Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: November 2024 summary
Updated 13 December 2024
Applies to England
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1. Summary
In general, November, like October, seemed a very typical month. The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received an average rainfall of 58mm in November, which was 103% of the long term average (LTA). Rainfall totals ranged from 42mm to 81mm (71% to 147 % of the LTA) with the highest totals in the south of the area and the lowest in the north. The 3-month, 6-month and 12-month totals indicate that the southern areas have received more rainfall than those in the north.
Soil moisture deficits (SMD) generally decreased in the second half of the month when the majority of the month’s rainfall occurred. By the end of November, the area had an SMD of 13mm, which remains within the below normal category for this time of year.
River flows in most sites responded in line with the rainfall received across November. Monthly mean river flows ranged from 55% to 348% of the LTA, falling within the normal to notably high classifications. Following the normal levels of rainfall and below normal SMD across the area in November, groundwater levels remained normal or higher at all sites with data. With the exception of Covenham, reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves.
2. Rainfall
November overall brought normal levels of rainfall, with an average total of 58mm – 103% of the LTA for Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire. This marks the second consecutive month with normal rainfall levels. However, most rain fell in the latter half of the month, with almost 76% (44mm) recorded over 5 days: 18, 22, 23, 24 and 26 November. On 24 November 2024, a deep Atlantic low-pressure system named Storm Bert brought significant rainfall, with 28mm recorded in Upper Welland and Nene catchment and an average of 12mm rainfall across the 6 catchments, making it the wettest day in November 2024. Rainfall totals varies across the region with the lowest rainfall was in the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme at 42mm (71% of the LTA) and the highest rainfall was in the Upper Welland and Nene with 81mm (147% of the LTA). As a result, the catchments experienced rainfall ranging from below normal to above normal rainfall for the time of year.
A north-south trend in rainfall distribution is evident, with southern areas receiving more ranfall than the north. This pattern is reflected in the longer-term rainfall maps, which unanimously display the higher totals received in the south compared to the north.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
SMD responded in line with the rainfall patterns observed through November. SMD increased slightly across all 6 catchments during the dry first half of the month but saw a decrease again in the second half of the month when the month’s main rainfall fell. The lowest levels of SMD were recorded in the Upper Welland and Nene hydrological area (4mm), whilst the highest levels were observed in the Ancholme Grimsby Louth (21mm), as well as the South Forty Foot and Hobhole hydrological area (21mm). On average, SMD for the region decreased from 28mm at the end of October to 13mm by the end of November. Despite this reduction, the figure remains within the below normal range for the time of year. The SMD difference-to-LTA (mm) map show most hydrological areas are in the -50 to -26 category, indicating that they are all significantly wetter than normal for the time of year. The only exception is the Ancholme Grimsby Louth hydrological area that is in the -25 to -6 category, meaning it is only slightly wetter than normal.
4. River flows
Monthly mean river flows ranged from 55% to 348% of the LTA, spanning classifications from normal to notably high. At most sites, river flow responded proportionally to the rainfall received in November. Higher flow classifications were observed in the southern areas, while normal flow classifications in the north. Most sites have experienced a reduction in classification since October 2024. Two of the 12 sites (Glen and Geldharts Mill (Nene) have not changed banding since October 2024. The mean monthly flow at Lud in the Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau hydrological area remained normal, showing no change in banding since August 2024.
5. Groundwater levels
Following the normal levels of rainfall and below normal SMD across the area in November, groundwater levels remained at normal or higher classifications at all monitored sites. All groundwater bandings decreased since October 2024, except Grainsby which remained normal for the time of year. This trend is likely due to the drier start to the month, with the majority of rainfall occurring in the second half of the month. The full impact of this rainfall is expected to become evident in early December.
6. Reservoir stocks
With the exception of Covenham, reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves. The level at Covenham was 13% below target in November, however levels are not alarmingly low.
7. Environmental impact
During November, there were 11 flood alerts, 28 flood warnings and 2 severe flood warnings issued in Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire. All transfer scheme remained off throughout November. There were 2 ‘hands off flow’ active in the Steeping River Catchment in November.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
December 2024: All sites are showing a greatly increased probability of greater than normal flows.
March 2025: The 2 Nene sites are showing slightly increased probabilities of above normal flows. North Brook is showing a slightly increased probability of below normal flows.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
March 2025: All sites are showing an increased probability of groundwater levels being normal or higher with none of the modelled rainfall scenarios showing exceptionally low levels.
September 2025: All sites are showing a reduced probability of exceptionally low levels.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report
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