Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: October 2024 summary
Updated 13 November 2024
Applies to England
© Crown copyright 2024
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports/lincolnshire-and-northamptonshire-water-situation-october-2024-summary
1. October 2024 Summary
October was a very normal month with rainfall varying between 93% to 139% of the long term average (LTA) in the 6 catchments, all of which were classified as normal levels (relative to the monthly LTA) of rainfall for the time of year. The 3-month and 6-month totals show the southern areas receiving more rainfall than those in the north. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) generally decreased during the month of October. The area as a whole ended the month with SMD of 28mm. SMD ranges from normal to notably low across the 6 hydrological areas. River flows at indicator sites show mean monthly flows ranging from normal to exceptionally high classification. Following the normal levels of rainfall and below normal SMD across the area in October, groundwater levels remained normal or higher at all sites with data. With the exception of Covenham, reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves.
2. Rainfall
October was a very normal month, with an average of 57mm of rainfall across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire (LNA), which was 118% of the LTA. Rainfall ranged from 49mm to 61mm (93% to 139% of the LTA), classifying it as normal for the time of year in all 6 hydrological areas. This is a reduction from September’s report which showed notably high to exceptionally high levels in all rainfall units. The 3-month and 6-month totals show a clear north-south divide with the southern areas receiving more rainfall than those in the north. Following the rainfall in October, the last 12 months rainfall totals still show exceptionally high levels in most of the hydrological areas except for the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme catchment which showed notably high levels of rainfall.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
Soil moisture deficits responded in line with the rainfall received across October. SMD decreased in all hydrological areas except the Upper Welland and Nene were the levels remained relatively stable throughout October. The lowest levels of SMD were observed in the Upper Welland and Nene hydrological area (10mm), whilst the highest levels were observed in the South Forty Foot and Hobhole hydrological area (46mm). The area as a whole ended the month with SMD of 28mm. This figure is within the below normal range for the time of year.
4. River flows
River flows at indicator sites show mean monthly flows ranging from normal to exceptionally high classification. Five of the 10 sites have not changed banding since September 2024. The only site classified as normal is the Lud in the Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau hydrological area, but the site has not changed banding since August 2024.
5. Groundwater levels
Following the normal levels of rainfall and below normal SMD across the area in October, groundwater levels remained normal or higher at all sites with data. Most groundwater bandings have increased since September 2024, except Hanthorpe which remained exceptionally high for the time of year and Barton Horkstow Road that has decreased from notably high to above normal levels.
6. Reservoir stocks
With the exception of Covenham, reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves. The level at Covenham was 8% below target in October, however levels are not alarmingly low.
7. Environmental impact
All transfer schemes remained off throughout October. No licence cessations were issued. There were 14 flood alerts, and no flood warnings issued.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
December 2024: All sites are showing a greatly increased probability of greater than normal flows.
March 2025: The 2 Nene sites are showing slightly increased probabilities of above normal flows. North Brook is showing a slightly increased probability of below normal flows.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
March 2025: All sites are showing an increased probability of groundwater levels being normal or higher with none of the modelled rainfall scenarios showing exceptionally low levels.
September 2025: All sites are showing a reduced probability of exceptionally low levels.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report
Contact Details: 03708 506 506