Research and analysis

Water situation: June 2024 summary

Updated 11 July 2024

Applies to England

It has been a dry month across England with nearly all catchments receiving below average rainfall during June. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) have increased across England, with many parts of the country ending June with drier soils than at the start of the month. River flows decreased at all of indicator sites in June and were classed as normal or higher at all sites. Groundwater levels decreased at all but 2 of the sites we report on and levels at more than half of sites remain classed as notably or exceptionally high for the time of year. Reservoir storage decreased at all but 4 of the reservoirs we report on and the majority of reservoirs were classed as normal or higher. Reservoir stocks across England were 89% full at the end of June.  

1. Rainfall

The rainfall total for England for June was 34.1mm which represents 57% of the 1961 to 1990 long term average (LTA) for the month (52% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA). It brings to an end 11 consecutive months of above average rainfall for England. Nearly all catchments received below average rainfall during June, while only 2 catchments received average rainfall. The wettest hydrological area relative to the LTA was the Kent catchment in north-west England which received 102% of LTA rainfall. The driest hydrological areas were the River Cut and River Bourne in south-east England which both received 25% of LTA rainfall in June.

June rainfall totals were classed as below normal or lower for the time of year at nearly three-quarters of catchments in England. Thirty-six catchments were normal for the time of year, predominantly in the northern England. At the regional scale, rainfall totals were notably low for the time of year in south-west and south-east England in both cases the driest June since 2018. Rainfall totals in north-east and north-west England were classed as normal and east and central England recorded below normal rainfall totals for June. Rainfall for England as a whole was also below normal for the time of year and the driest June for 6 years.

The 3-month cumulative totals were above normal or higher across all catchments in England with nearly half of catchments classed as either above normal or higher. The last 6 months have also seen exceptionally high or notably high cumulative totals at all but 3 catchments across country and it has been the wettest 6 month period ending in June since 1871 for 11 catchments. It has also been the wettest 6 month period for north-west England since 1871. The 12-month cumulative totals were exceptionally high nearly all but 8 catchments and it has been the wettest 12 months ending in June since 1871 for 95 catchments. It has also been the wettest 12 month period until June for England as a whole since 1871. Furthermore, north-west, north-east, east, central and south-west England all recorded the wettest 12 month period ending in June since 1871. Since November 2022, it has been the wettest 18 month period (from November to June) on record for England, with more than half of catchments also having their wettest 18 month period.

2.  Soil moisture deficit

Below average rainfall across England combined the warmer temperatures and increased evapotranspiration resulted in increases in SMD with soils throughout England becoming drier.

Soils across north-west, north-east and central England remain wetter than average for the time of year. However, SMDs increased in eastern England, with soils reporting average moisture deficits for the time of year. Across many parts of the south-west and south-east England SMDs increased resulting in soils drier than would be expected for the time of year.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows decreased at all of indicator sites in June however monthly mean flows remain classed as normal or higher at all sites. Thirty-four sites (62% of the total) were classed as normal for the time of year. Thirteen sites (24% of the total) were classed as above normal for the time of year and 11% (6 sites) were classed as notably high. Two sites (4%) were exceptionally high and both those sites; Allbrook and Highbridge, River Itchen (since 1958) and Hansteads, River Ver (since 1956) recorded their highest monthly mean flow for June on record.

All the regional index sites saw a decrease in monthly mean flows in June. Naturalised flows at Kingston on the River Thames and Horton on the Great Stour, both in south-east England, were classed as above normal for the time of year. Monthly mean flows in the normal range were recorded at the:

• Bedford Ouse in east England
• River Dove in central England
• River Exe in south-west England
• River Lune in the north-west
• South Tyne in the north-east

4. Groundwater levels   

At the end of June, all but 2 of the groundwater indicator sites we report on recorded a decrease in levels. At nearly half of the indicator sites, groundwater levels were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year. Over a third of sites were above normal for the time of year. Four sites were classed as notably high and only 2 sites were classed as normal at the end of June. Five sites recorded their highest end of June groundwater level on record including:

• Weir Farm (since 1983) in Bridgnorth Sandstone in central England
• Coxmoor (since 1990) in Idle Torne Sandstone in central England
• Aycliffe (since 1979) in Skerne Magnesian Limestone in the north-east
• Priors Heyes (since 1972) in West Cheshire Sandstone in the north-west
• Skirwith (since 1978) in Carlisle Basin Sandstone in the north-west

Groundwater levels decreased at all of aquifer index sites in June. Four sites were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year:

• Weir Farm (Bridgnorth Sandstone)
• Skirwith (Carlisle Basin Sandstone)
• Little Bucket (East Kent Stour Chalk)
• Stonor Park (South West Chilterns Chalk)

Redlands Hall (Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk) and Chilgrove (Chichester Chalk) were notably high, and Dalton Estate (Hull and East Riding Chalk) was classed as above normal for the time of year. Jackaments Bottom (Burford Jurassic Limestone) in the south-east was above normal at the end of June.

5. Reservoir storage

Reservoir storage decreased during June at all but 4 of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on. The largest stock decreases were at Stithians and Blagdon both in the south-west which decreased 16% and 13% respectively. The majority of reservoirs at the end of June were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Storage at 4 of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on remain classed as notably high for the time of year. The Dee system continues to be impacted by ongoing reservoir maintenance was classed as below normal.

At a regional scale, total reservoir storage decreased in all regions. In north-west, south-west and central England, overall storage decreased by 7% during June. For England as whole, storage decreased to 89% at the end of June.

6. Forward look

July began with changeable conditions, with heavy rain showers and periods of dry, sunny weather. The unsettled weather is forecast to continue into the middle of July with an increased chance for localised heavy showers and thunderstorms. Mid July temperatures are expected to increase leading to warmer conditions during more settled periods. Towards the end of the month there is a chance of a settled period of drier, warmer weather, but forecasts remain uncertain.

For the 3 month period between July and September, there is higher than expected chance of warmer temperatures. Rainfall signals are limited at this time of year, but spells of unsettled weather can be expected, with heavy downpours and thunderstorms likely.

7. Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of September 2024, river flows are projected to be above normal or higher in east and south-east England due to high baseflows in groundwater fed rivers from aquifers. Across the rest of England, river flows are projected to be normal.

By the end of March 2025, river flows are projected to be above normal or higher in south-east and east England. River flows are projected to be normal or lower in other parts of England.

8. Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of September 2024, groundwater levels are projected to be above normal or higher across much of England as many aquifers remain higher than expected following a wet winter and ongoing wet weather.

By the end of March 2025, groundwater levels are projected to be normal across most of England, with only the north-east more likely to see below normal or lower groundwater levels.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.