In January rainfall was above the long term average (LTA) for the time of year across most of England, except in the north-west and north-east where totals were below the LTA. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) were close to zero across England, and soils remain wetter than would be expected in parts of east and south-east England. Monthly mean river flows increased at three-quarters of sites, and almost all were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Groundwater levels increased at all except 4 sites in January, and all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Reservoir stocks increased across England during January, with overall storage 92% full at the end of the month.

1. Rainfall

In January, England received 93mm of rainfall which represents 116% of the 1961 to 1990 LTA for the time of year (112% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA). The majority of hydrological areas received above average rainfall during January, with just 18% recording below average rainfall, mainly in the north-west and north-east. The wettest hydrological area was the Loddon in the south-east, having received 172% of the LTA (113mm). In contrast the driest hydrological area was the Esk (Dumfries) in the north-west on the border with Scotland, where just 58% (57mm) of LTA rainfall was received.

Rainfall totals during January were classed as normal or higher for almost all hydrological areas. Only 3 hydrological areas were classed as below normal for the time of year, all of which were in the north-west and north-east. Forty-one areas (29% of the total), were classed as normal for the time of year. Rainfall totals in 57 hydrological areas (41%) were classed as above normal for January. Another 38 hydrological areas (27%), mainly in the south-east and south-west of England, were classed as notably high for the time of year. At a regional scale, rainfall was classed as above normal in the south-east and south-west, and normal across the rest of England. England as a whole was also classed as normal.

The 3-month cumulative totals were classed as normal across most of England, with the far north-west and north-east being classed as below normal, and parts of central, east and north-west England classed as above normal. Over the last 6-months, rainfall totals have been above normal and higher across much of south-west, south-east and central England. Up the east coast, and into north-east and north-west England rainfall totals have been normal or below normal. The 12-month cumulative totals were classed as exceptionally high for most of south-west, south-east and central England. Elsewhere rainfall totals for the 12-month period were generally above normal or higher, although the north-east saw more areas classed as normal for the period.

2. Soil moisture deficit

As is expected in January, SMDs were at zero across England at the end of the month, as soils remain fully wetted following a wetter than average month for many areas.

At the end of January, soils continue to be wetter than would be expected across parts of the south-east, east and north-east of England, with SMDs around average for the rest of the country.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows increased at three-quarters of the sites we report on in January. River flows were classed as being normal or higher at all except 2 sites. The exceptions were Haydon Bridge on the South Tyne, and Pooley Bridge on the River Eamont where river flows were classed as below normal. More than a third of sites were classed as normal for the time of year, and 22 sites (40% of the total) were classed as above normal. Six sites were classed as notably high for the time of year. Four sites were classed as exceptionally high for January, including the River Weaver at Ashbrook in the north-west, which recorded the highest January monthly mean flow since records began at the site in 1977.

Regional index sites reflected the mixed picture, with 3 sites seeing a decrease in monthly mean flows, including Haydon Bridge in the north-east where flows were below normal. In east England Offord on the Bedford Ouse was classed as above normal despite a decrease in flows, and in the north-west the River Lune at Caton was classed as normal. Both the Great Stour at Horton and the River Thames (naturalised flows) at Kingston were classed as normal for the time of year. In the south-west, the River Exe at Thorverton was classed as normal, and in central England the River Dove at Marston-on-Dove was classed as above normal for the time of year.

4. Groundwater levels

At the end of January, the majority of sites had recorded an increase in groundwater levels, with just 4 sites seeing a decrease compared to the previous month. All sites were classed as being normal or higher for the time of year, with three-quarters classed as above normal or higher. Seven sites (27% of the total) were classed as normal for the time of year, and 9 (35%) sites were classed as above normal. Six sites (23%) were classed as notably high, most of which are in chalk aquifers. The final 4 sites (15%) were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year, including Coxmoor in the Idle Thorne Sandstone (central England) which recorded the highest end of January level since records began in 1990.

For the aquifer index sites we report on, all except one site saw groundwater levels increase at the end of January. Groundwater levels were classed as normal for the time of year at 3 sites in the south-east: Chilgrove (Chichester Chalk), Little Bucket (East Kent Stour Chalk), and Jackaments Bottom (Burford Jurassic Limestone). The remaining site in the south-east, Stonor Park in the South West Chilterns Chalk was classed as exceptionally high, where it has remained for more than a year since it was first classed as exceptionally high in December 2023. In central England Weir Farm in the Bridgnorth Sandstone was also classed as exceptionally high having recorded the highest end of January level since records at the site began in 1983. Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin Sandstone in the north-west of England was classed as above normal for the time of year. As was Dalton Estate Well in the Hull and East Riding Chalk in north-east England. In east England, Redlands Hall in the Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk was classed as notably high for January.

5. Reservoir storage

During January, reservoir stocks increased at three-quarters of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on. The greatest increases were seen at Bewl reservoir in the south-east and Stithians in the south-west, both of which saw increases of more than 15%. Any decreases were 5% or less.

It was a very mixed picture at the end of January with reservoirs ranging from notably low levels to exceptionally high. Haweswater and Thirlmere and the Dee system, which supply north-west England, were classed as notably low for the time of year as they were impacted by planned maintenance in the resource zone and drawdown for reservoir safety work respectively. Three sites were classed as being below normal for the time of year, including Kielder and the Pennines Group in the north, and Bough Beech in south-east England. Fourteen reservoirs were classed as normal for the time of year, and 8 were above normal. The Yorkshire Supply Group was the only reservoir to be classed as notably high for the time of year. Three reservoirs were classed as exceptionally high at the end of January, including Roadford in the south-west and Carsington and Ogston in the north-west which were both completely full.

At a regional scale, total reservoir storage increased across the country and for England as a whole, with overall storage for England ending January 92% full.

6. Forward look

February started with settled, cold, relatively dry conditions for many. By the middle of the month, cloudy and wet conditions are expected in many areas, with a chance of heavy rain in the far west. East and south-easterly winds are likely, which will maintain below average temperatures and bring cloudy conditions. Towards the end of February, conditions are expected to remain unsettled, with bands of rain and potentially strong winds interrupted by dry and bright breaks.

For the 3-month period from February to April there is a higher than average chance of conditions being milder, wetter and windier than would be expected for the period. There is an increased chance of stormy and windy weather, particularly during February and March. Although conditions are likely to be milder than average overall, there remains a chance for cold spells throughout the period.

7. Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2025, river flows across east, central and north-west England have a greater than average chance of being above normal or higher. River flows in the rest of the country have the greatest chance of being normal for the time of year, while below normal or lower flows are slightly more likely in the south-east.

By the end of September 2025, river flows across central and north-west England have a greater than average chance of being above normal or higher for the time of year. In the south-west, river flows have a greater than average chance of being below normal or lower, while the rest of England has the greatest chance of seeing normal river flows.

8. Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2025, groundwater levels across almost all of England have a greater than average chance of being above normal or higher for the time of year.

By the end of September 2025, groundwater levels have a greater than average chance of being above normal or higher across England, with normal groundwater levels most likely in central and north-west England.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.