Winter health watch summary: 15 December 2016

Published 30 March 2017

This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.

Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.

This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/winter-health-watch-summary-30-march-2017/winter-health-watch-summary-15-december-2016

1. Summary

1.1 Cold Alert

All regions are currently at Level 1 – ‘Winter Preparedness and Action’.

Prior level 2 cold weather alerts have been in place this season from:

November 8 to 9 November
November 18 to 21
November 24 to 26
November 28 to December 6

1.2 Flu

During week 49 (ending 11 December 2016), influenza activity is starting to increase for several indicators in particular flu outbreaks in the community, the proportion of laboratory samples positive for influenza in primary and secondary care and influenza admissions to intensive care. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is nearing its peak.

1.3 Syndromic Surveillance

There were small increases in GP consultations for influenza-like illness during week 49, however levels remain within seasonally expected limits.

Gastroenteritis indicators remain above seasonally expected levels in all systems.

1.4 Norovirus

Reports of suspected and confirmed outbreaks of norovirus in hospitals continue to be reported at similar levels to previous years.

The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in this season* (since week 27 2016) is 1954. This is 14% higher than the average number for the same period in the 5 seasons from season 2011 and 2012 to season 2015 and 2016 (1719), and 64% higher than the same weeks last season.

Norovirus activity varies from season-to-season, and the level of norovirus activity was lower than average during the 2015 and 2016. Therefore it is more appropriate to use the 5 season average for comparison

1.5 Rotavirus

The number of laboratory reports of rotavirus in this season* (since week 27 2016) is 998. This is 3% higher than 10 season average for the same period in the seasons 2003 and 2004 to 2012 and 2013 (967)**. The total number of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections each season has since remained low compared to the pre-vaccine period.

1.6 All-Cause Mortality

In week 49 2016, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen through the EuroMOMO algorithm in England overall and by age group and across the devolved administrations.

*In order to capture the winter peak of activity in one season, for reporting purposes, the norovirus and rotavirus season runs from week 27 in year 1 to week 26 in year 2, for example week 27 2009 to week 26 2010, July to June.

**Comparison is made with this 10 season period as it is prior to the vaccine introduction.