Winter health watch summary: 18 February 2016

Published 31 March 2016

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1. Summary

1.1 Cold Alert

A level 2 cold weather alert ‘Alert and readiness’ is in place between midday on Wednesday 17 February and 9:00am on Friday 19 February for North East England, North West England, Yorkshire and Humber, West Midlands, East Midlands, East England and South East England. All other regions are at level 1 ‘Winter preparedness and action’.

Earlier this week a level 3 cold weather alert ‘Cold Weather Action’ was issued between 9:00am on Saturday 13 February and midday on Wednesday 17 February for North East England, North West England, Yorkshire and Humber and West Midlands. All other regions were at level 2 ‘Alert and readiness’ except London which remained at level 1 ‘Winter preparedness and action’.

1.2 Flu

In week 6 2016 (ending 14 February 2016), influenza indicators continued to increase or stabilise across surveillance schemes, including GP influenza-like illness (ILI) consultation rates, the proportion of laboratory samples positive for influenza and influenza admissions to hospitals and ICU. The Department of Health has issued an alert on the prescription of antiviral medicines to the health service. Updated guidance on antiviral prescribing in secondary care when influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 is the dominant circulating strain has been published.

1.3 Syndromic Surveillance

Selected respiratory indicators, including GP ILI consultations and cold or flu calls to NHS 111, remained stable during week 6. There were further increases in GP consultations for scarlet fever during week 6, with highest rates in the 1 to 4 years age group.

1.4 Norovirus

The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in this season (since week 27 2015) is 2309. This is 41% lower than the average number for the same period in the 5 seasons from season 2010 and 2011 to season 2014 and 2015 (3912), and 78% lower than the same weeks last season. Reports of outbreaks of diarrhoea and vomiting in hospitals continue to be reported but at lower levels than in previous years.

1.5 Rotavirus

The level of rotavirus laboratory reporting is currently lower than previous years. The level of laboratory reports is 49% lower compared to the 10 season average (from season 2003 and 2004 to season 2012 and 2013).

1.6 All-Cause Mortality

Excess mortality was seen in 15 to 64 year olds in week 6 in England. So far this season, excess has been seen in England in under 5 year olds and 5 to 14 year olds in week 51 and in 15 to 64 year olds from week 52 with the EuroMoMo algorithm.