Winter health watch summary: 11 January 2018

Question 1

1. Summary

Accepted Answer

1.1 Cold Alert

North East England and North West England are currently at level 3 (cold weather action), while Yorkshire and Humber and West Midlands are at level 2 (alert and readiness).

Prior cold weather alerts have been in place this season from:

24 November to 2 December
7 December to 19 December
26 December to 29 December
6 January to 10 January

1.2 Flu

During week 01 (ending 7 January 2018), allowing for Christmas reporting breaks, influenza activity continues to increase across all surveillance indicators with notable increases for respiratory outbreaks and influenza confirmed hospitalisations, although there are early signs that influenza swab positivity levels in primary and secondary care are stabilising. Influenza A and B are co-circulating, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) has reached peak activity and is now decreasing. The Department of Health has issued an alert on the prescription of antiviral medicines by GPs.

1.3 Syndromic Surveillance

There were further increases in influenza-like indicators during week 1, including GP consultations for ILI, NHS 111 cold/flu calls and ED ILI attendances, in line with current reports of influenza circulating within the community. Increases were most notable in adults.

There were small decreases in ED attendances and GP out of hours consultations for acute respiratory infection during week 1.

1.4 Norovirus

Since week 27, 2017 there have been 2551 laboratory reports of norovirus in England and Wales. As a result of activity earlier in the season this is 6% lower than the average number for the same period in the previous 5 seasons from season 2012 to 13 to season 2016 to 2017 (2710); however activity in the most recent weeks has increased and is now above the 5 season average for this reporting week.

Reports of suspected and confirmed outbreaks of norovirus in hospitals in England are currently at lower levels than in previous years (2009 to 2016).

1.5 Rotavirus

Since week 27, 2017, there have been 611 laboratory reports of rotavirus in England and Wales. This is 45% lower than the average for season 2013 to 2014 to season 2016 to 2017 (1102) (the period after vaccine was introduced).

Following the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine into the routine childhood immunisation schedule in July 2013, the total number of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections each season has remained low compared to the pre-vaccine period.

1.6 All-Cause Mortality

In week 50 2017, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen through the EuroMOMO algorithm in England overall or by age group. Please note mortality statistics will resume on 18 January 2018.