Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 15 March 2018

Updated 29 March 2018

1. Summary

1.1 Cold alert

All regions are currently at level 1 (winter preparedness and action programme). Cold weather alerts have been issued for later this week, please see the Cold Weather Alerts webpage for up to date details.

Prior cold weather alerts have been in place this season from:

  • 24 November to 2 December
  • 7 December to 19 December
  • 26 December to 29 December
  • 6 January to 12 January
  • 15 January to 21 January
  • 31 January to 1 February
  • 2 February to 8 February
  • 9 February to 15 February
  • 23 February to 7 March

1.2 Flu

During week 10 (ending 11 March 2018), influenza continues to circulate, although activity has now peaked. Influenza A and B are co-circulating. The Department of Health has issued an alert on the prescription of antiviral medicines by GPs.

1.3 Syndromic surveillance

Influenza indicators across all syndromic systems remain above seasonally expected levels.

1.4 Norovirus

Norovirus activity appears to have peaked.

Since week 27, 2017 there have been 4,343 laboratory reports of norovirus in England and Wales. This is comparable to the average number for the same period in the previous 5 seasons from season 2012 to 2013 to season 2016 to 2017 (4,430).

Reports of suspected and confirmed outbreaks of norovirus in hospitals in England are currently at lower levels than in previous years (2012 to 2017).

1.5 Rotavirus

Since week 27, 2017, there have been 850 laboratory reports of rotavirus in England and Wales. This is 53% lower than the average from season 2013 to 2014 to season 2016 to 2017 (1,798) (the period after vaccine was introduced).

Following the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine into the routine childhood immunisation schedule in July 2013, the total number of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections each season has remained low compared to the pre-vaccine period.

1.6 All-cause mortality

In week 10, 2018, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen overall and by age group in England, through the EuroMOMO algorithm.

Throughout the winter, local weekly flu and infectious intestinal disease bulletins are available from the relevant PHE Field Epidemiology team.

The contact details are:

East Midlands: FES.EM@phe.gov.uk

East of England: EFEU@phe.gov.uk

London: FES.SEaL@phe.gov.uk

North East: FES.NorthEast@phe.gov.uk

North West: FES.NorthWest@phe.gov.uk

South East: FES.SEaL@phe.gov.uk

South West: FES.SouthWest@phe.gov.uk

West Midlands: FES.WestMidlands@phe.gov.uk

Yorkshire and Humber: YHFES@phe.gov.uk

2. Surveillance reports updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus and rotavirus: summary of surveillance

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan for England

Annual flu programme