Work Capability Assessment Reform: update to estimated number of claimants affected
Published 18 April 2024
Applies to England, Scotland and Wales
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Introduction
This publication provides statistics on the estimated number of claimants affected by each of the Work Capability Assessment reform changes announced at Autumn Statement 2023.
Background
At Autumn Statement 2023, reforms to three Work Capability Assessment (WCA) descriptors were announced. These are:
- removal of the Mobilising activity used to assess limited capability for work and work-related activity (LCWRA).
- realignment of LCWRA Substantial Risk rules with the original policy intent of only applying in exceptional circumstances.
- reduction in points for some of the descriptors under the Getting About activity used to assess limited capability for work (LCW).
Following Autumn Statement 2023, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published a ‘supplementary forecast information’ release containing estimates of the number of claimants affected per reform.
This release updates these figures to be consistent with Spring Budget 2024 forecasts.
Results
With these changes to the WCA criteria, 424,000 fewer people are expected to be assessed as having limited capability for work and work-related activity by 2028 to 2029 and will receive personalised support to help them move closer to employment.
A further 33,000 individuals are expected to be found fit for work by 2028 to 2029 and will receive more intensive support to search for and secure work than would be the case under the current WCA rules.
The tables contain estimates of:
• the number of claimants who would have been in the ‘limited capability for work and work-related activity’ (LCWRA) group prior to reforms, but are now expected to be in the ‘limited capability for work’ (LCW) group due to the removal of the LCWRA mobilising descriptor and changes to the LCWRA substantial risk descriptor
• the number of claimants who would have been in the LCW group prior to reforms, but are now expected to be in the Intensive Work Search (IWS) group due to changes to the LCW getting about descriptor
Tables: Number of claimants affected by Work Capability Assessment Reform, Great Britain
Moved from LCWRA to LCW
| Moved from LCWRA to LCW | 2025 to 2026 | 2026 to 2027 | 2027 to 2028 | 2028 to 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals | 85,000 | 204,000 | 309,000 | 424,000 |
| Total moved due to removing the LCWRA ‘mobilising’ descriptor | 56,000 | 133,000 | 196,000 | 260,000 |
| Total moved due to amending the LCWRA ‘risk’ descriptor | 29,000 | 71,000 | 113,000 | 163,000 |
Moved from LCW to IWS
| Moved from LCW to IWS | 2025 to 2026 | 2026 to 2027 | 2027 to 2028 | 2028 to 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total moved | 7,000 | 17,000 | 25,000 | 33,000 |
| Total moved due to amending the LCW ‘getting about’ descriptor | 7,000 | 17,000 | 25,000 | 33,000 |
Source: Internal Work Capability Assessment Reform Policy Costing model
Notes to tables:
- LCWRA, LCW and IWS are three groups within Universal Credit with different levels of labour market conditionality
- LCWRA refers to the ‘limited capability for work and work-related activity’ group. LCW refers to the ‘limited capability for work’ group. IWS refers to the ‘intensive work search’ group
- the number of claimants is rounded to the nearest 1,000. Figures may not sum due to rounding
About these statistics
The figures presented in this release are based on an internal Work Capability Assessment Reform Policy Costing model, the same method as used by OBR in the previous supplementary release. This model draws on DWP administrative data to produce volumes of Employment and Support Allowance claimants and Universal Credit claimants in scope; WCA outcome forecasts; OBR economic assumptions to uprate financial impacts; and data collected in a bespoke exercise to understand the proportion of LCWRA cases awarded based on the different descriptors and the level of comorbidities which provide alternative routes to being awarded different benefit levels.
Figures are based on Spring Budget 2024 forecasts and can be compared with Spring Budget 2024 forecast benefit caseload data.
A key uncertainty in these estimates is the behavioural response of claimants. Given the financial gain from being assigned as having ‘limited capability for work and work-related activity’ (LCWRA), as well as the lower level of conditionality, we expect some individuals will change their behaviour in their Work Capability Assessment (WCA) to increase their chances of being found eligible for LCWRA against the remaining descriptors.
We also expect the policy to increase the volume of mandatory reconsiderations and appeals from those claimants that are moved out of the LCWRA caseload, and that some of these appeals will reverse that initial assessment. There is limited evidence to inform both judgements so the exact level could be higher or lower than we expect. For more detail see paragraph 3.24 of OBR’s November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook.
Statement of Compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics
The Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code) is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:
- trustworthiness – is about having confidence in the people and organisations that publish statistics
- quality – is about using data and methods that produce statistics
- value – is about publishing statistics that support society’s needs
The following explains how we have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way.
Trustworthiness
DWP analysts work to a professional competency framework and Civil Service core values of integrity, honesty, objectivity, and impartiality. The analysis in this release has been scrutinised and received sign off by the expert lead analyst.
We protect the security of our data in order to maintain the privacy of the citizen, fulfil relevant legal obligations and uphold our obligation that no statistics will be produced that are likely to identify an individual, while at the same time taking account of our obligation to obtain maximum value from the data we hold for statistical purposes. All analysts are given security training and the majority of data accessed by analysts is obfuscated and access is business case controlled based to the minimum data required.
The figures have been seen in advance by Ministers and officials, in line with the Code, where pre-release access does not apply for an ad hoc analysis release.
Quality
The data which underpins this information is taken directly from departmental systems, which are relied upon by DWP for the administration and operation of Employment and Support Allowance and Universal Credit.
Quality assurance has taken place in line with the standards usually applied to DWP ad hoc releases, with an internal check that the results shown are robust.
Value
Releasing this information serves the public interest regarding the impacts of Work Capability Assessment Reform. The figures add to the wider set of information available and ensure all information in the public domain is consistent and reflective of latest official forecasts. They also help reduce the administrative burden of answering Parliamentary Questions, Freedom of Information requests and other forms of ad hoc enquiry.
Contact information
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