Putin has badly miscalculated in Ukraine: UK statement to the OSCE
UK military adviser, Ian Stubbs, says that 1 year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin is losing strategically and at enormous cost to the Russian military.
Thank you, Mr Chair. A year ago, we sat in this Chamber on what we would later understand to be the eve of Russia’s unprovoked, premeditated and barbaric attack on Ukraine. Twelve months on, it is worth reflecting on what Russia has done, what it has achieved and at what cost.
What has Russia done? Mr Chair, it is important to focus on the facts. Let me reiterate some:
Russia, since November 2021, repeatedly lied over the true purpose of its extraordinary military build-up on Ukraine’s borders and in illegally annexed Crimea.
Russia, not only ignored its commitments under the Vienna Document, but weaponised this Confidence and Security Building measure to support its disinformation campaign and preparations for its invasion.
Russia, said there would be no war. But Russia invaded Ukraine and, in doing so, created the biggest refugee crisis and war in Europe since the Second World War.
So what has Russia achieved? In this and other Forums, we repeatedly warned that any further Russian military incursion into Ukraine would be a massive strategic mistake. Putin tried to divide and undermine NATO. However, Russia’s own aggressive actions have resulted in a more united and even stronger NATO, ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.
Above all, Russia’s invasion has demonstrated the strength, resolve and determination of the courageous Ukrainian people as they defend their homeland. With support from their friends and partners, Ukraine has shown that agility, ingenuity and great leadership can have a devastating effect against a so-called super power.
What is the cost? Mr Chair, we have seen an out-manoeuvred and frustrated Russian military unleash horrendous amounts of violence and have heard in dismay the ongoing reports of men, women and children killed, mutilated, tortured and raped.
We have watched Russia resort to blunt edged attrition to reduce entire cities, towns and villages that they, Russia, could not take, to rubble. Russia has and continues to conduct horrific missile, air and artillery strikes on civilian infrastructure. These have torn through apartment blocks, hospitals, shopping malls and schools killing innocent civilians, including children. The atrocities we see being committed day after day are a great moral stain upon the Russian military, one which will never be forgotten.
There has been enormous cost to the people of Russia too. Thousands of young Russian lives have been lost, sent to fight Putin’s war of choice. Whilst Russia may have had some tactical successes, these have come at huge cost to the Russian military. Morale is pitiful. Casualties are immense and their troops are running out of key weapons and ammunition. Russian forces have lost a significant amount of their combat power. It is clear that Russia is losing strategically and at great cost to the families of those killed in this needless war. Putin badly miscalculated in Ukraine.
Mr Chair, over the past year, we have watched our Russian colleagues slavishly use this Forum as a mouthpiece to perpetuate the Kremlin’s blizzard of lies, to justify the unjustifiable. On the eve of the invasion, in this Forum, our Russian colleague stated that, “international law prohibits the organization, advocacy, financing, incitement or toleration of activities aimed at destroying the constitutional order of another State.” They published their statement the following day, whilst Russia was launching its illegal invasion of Ukraine, its sovereign neighbour. A clear and shameful demonstration of the Russian delegation’s blatant hypocrisy.
Mr Chair, in the face of Russia’s barbaric invasion and brutal actions, we are proud to support our Ukrainian friends as they fight to liberate their homeland. With every day that passes, Russian forces inflict yet more pain and suffering. We must all recognise that giving Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself and push Russia out of its sovereign territory is the swiftest and only path to a just and lasting peace. Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence will be fully restored. Thank you.