Putin has limited options to sustain his war on Ukraine: UK statement to the OSCE
Ian Stubbs says Russia is suffering its highest casualty rate since the invasion began, but Putin could stop his needless sacrifice of thousands more Russians.
Thank you, Mr Chair. A year ago, we reported to this Forum that Russia’s military build-up had amassed approximately 130,000 troops positioned along Ukraine’s borders and in illegally annexed Crimea.
Russia had deployed: the Iskander-K offensive ballistic missile systems in range of key Ukrainian cities and infrastructure; extensive air defence assets including the S-400 and Pantsir missile systems; and large numbers of air assets including the Su-25, Su-35S, Ka-52 and Mi-8 on a scale not normally seen as part of exercises.
Russia had also imposed unprecedented access restrictions over large areas of the Black Sea and was further bolstering its Black Sea Fleet with reinforcements from other Fleets; including increasing the number of landing ships by more than double.
In the face of this massive military build-up and Russia’s escalating rhetoric, Ukraine had demonstrated remarkable restraint. We had seen commendable attempts by Ukraine, and others, to reduce the risk of miscalculation and de-escalate tensions through two initiations of the Vienna Document Risk Reduction mechanism. But Russia refused to engage, insisting that it saw “no grounds for applying the procedures of the Vienna Document Paragraph 16”. Russia’s argument that the risk reduction mechanism did not apply whilst at the same time presiding over the biggest military build-up in Europe since the Cold War, was a clear indication that Putin had already taken the decision that Russia would invade its sovereign neighbour.
Mr Chair, we also know that the lies, deception and disruptive activity from our Russian colleagues aimed to deliberately undermine efforts by participating States to find a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. The Russian delegation’s duplicitous behaviour endures nearly a year later.
Last week, in an interview with Russian State media, our Russian colleague lamented that other delegations were “scrutinising” Russia’s “previous statements, looking for contradictions” – we do not have to look far. In this Forum exactly a year ago, he stated that Ukraine was “stubbornly continuing to impose…an unsubstantiated idea about some kind of Russian aggression”. Russia then invaded Ukraine. Last week, he said that Russia had “made every effort to ensure military-political stability in Europe”, but Russia refused to engage in the very mechanisms designed by this organisation to reduce risk, de-escalate tension and restore stability. When our Russian colleague persists in using this Forum to peddle the Kremlin’s disinformation and propaganda, the contradictions are clear for all to see.
Mr Chair, over the past two weeks, Russia has reportedly suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion of Ukraine. Russian military leaders have now likely deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under the so-called “partial mobilisation” and Wagner announced on 09 February that it had halted its prisoner recruitment scheme. The options for Putin and his military leaders to sustain their war of choice appear to be limited: continue to deplete their forces; scale back their objectives; or conduct a further form of mobilisation. But there is another option: Putin could end this war now, withdraw all Russian forces from Ukrainian sovereign territory, and in doing so, stop his needless sacrifice of thousands more ordinary Russian people.
Mr Chair, in the face of Russia’s barbaric invasion and brutal actions, we must all recognise that giving Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself and push Russia out of its sovereign territory is the swiftest and only path to a just and lasting peace. In the UK-Ukraine Joint Declaration we signed with Ukraine on 8 February, we reaffirmed our countries’ commitment to stand side by side in the face of Russia’s aggression.
The UK is working with Ukraine to help develop their longer-term force structures and capabilities, to reverse Russian gains and build towards a deterrence force of the future. We will support our Ukrainian friends as they fight to liberate their homeland. Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence will be fully restored. Thank you.