Chapter 6: Prices
Updated 20 February 2024
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Summary
- The annual average price index for all agricultural outputs increased by 19% from 2021 to 2022.
- The largest upward contribution to the annual inflation rate for agricultural outputs was from milk (8.2 percentage points), followed by wheat (3.1 percentage points) and barley (1.7 percentage points). The main downward contribution came from forage plants (-0.2 percentage points).
- The annual average price index for all agricultural inputs increased by 28% from 2021 to 2022.
- The largest upward contribution to the annual inflation rate for agricultural inputs was from fertilisers and soil improvers (9.6 percentage points), followed by compound feedingstuffs (6.8 percentage points) and energy and lubricants (4.2 percentage points).
Data sources
The Agricultural Price Index (API) measures the monthly price changes in agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK.
The output series reflects the prices farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm-gate prices. Information is collected for all major crops (for example cereals, fruit and vegetables), and for livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk, and eggs). It should also be noted that the price index for poultry is based on deadweight price reporting by processors. These prices are not directly comparable with poultry prices referenced in Chapter 8 which estimate the cost to producers.
The input series reflects the prices farmers pay for goods and services and is split into two groups: goods and services currently consumed, and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process (for example fertiliser or seed). Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or farm buildings.
Further information can be found in the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Summary chart for price indices
Figure 6.1: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs, 2020 to 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
| Year | All agricultural outputs | All agricultural inputs |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2021 | 109.9 | 111.4 |
| 2022 | 130.6 | 143.2 |
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Figure 6.1 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs since 2020. Compared with 2021, the annual average price index for 2022 is 19% higher for agricultural outputs and 28% higher for agricultural inputs.
In contrast with 2021, the price index for inputs was greater than that for outputs in 2022. Both price indices are currently at their highest value in the time series.
Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rates
Figure 6.2: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs annual inflation rate between 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Milk | 8.2 |
| Wheat | 3.1 |
| Barley | 1.7 |
| Cattle and calves | 1.4 |
| Pigs | 1.1 |
| Oilseed rape | 1.1 |
| Fresh vegetables | 0.7 |
| Eggs | 0.3 |
| Poultry | 0.3 |
| Sugar beet | 0.2 |
| Oats | 0.2 |
| Plants and flowers | 0.2 |
| Potatoes | 0.1 |
| Sheep and lambs | -0.1 |
| Fresh fruit | -0.1 |
| Forage plants | -0.2 |
Notes:
- Not all agricultural output categories are shown in Figure 6.2. Therefore, the sum of the contributions in Figure 6.2 may be slightly less than the annual inflation rate.
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Figure 6.2 shows the contributions to the agricultural outputs inflation rate of 19% observed between 2021 and 2022. Thirteen out of the sixteen output categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contribution came from milk - much of this can be explained by sharp price rises in inputs used in milk production, particularly fuel and animal feed. The emergence of conflict between Russia and Ukraine has seen significant upward contributions from key cereal crops, including wheat and barley.
Figure 6.3: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs annual inflation rate between 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 9.6 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | 6.8 |
| Energy and lubricants | 4.2 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 2.2 |
| Materials | 1.7 |
| Buildings | 1.1 |
| Other goods and services | 0.9 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 0.8 |
| Plant protection products | 0.5 |
| Maintenance of materials | 0.4 |
| Seeds | 0.2 |
| Veterinary services | 0.0 |
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Figure 6.3 shows the contributions to the agricultural inputs inflation rate of 28% observed between 2021 and 2022. All twelve output categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from fertilisers and soil improvers, followed by compound feedingstuffs, and energy and lubricants. As energy-intensive commodities, fertiliser prices have been strongly impacted by the large rises in wholesale energy costs. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to tight supplies of several key animal feedingstuffs, including feed wheat and feed barley, placing both compound and straight feedingstuffs as significant upward contributors to the agricultural inputs inflation rate.
Trends in price indices through the year
Agricultural outputs
Figure 6.4: Monthly cereal price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.4: Figure 6.4 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for cereals in 2021 and 2022. The cereals price index increased significantly in the final four months of 2021 and the first half of 2022, peaking in June 2022. Steady declines and a minor fluctuation were observed in the second half of 2022.
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The annual price index for cereals increased by 36% in 2022 compared with 2021. This was driven by the tight supply-demand balance that dominated 2022, brought about by the onset of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February. Prices rose rapidly throughout the first half of the year, before falling from July when a deal was signed between the two countries to allow the resumption of grain exports from the Black Sea region. Prices remained volatile as uncertainties remained over subsequent extensions of the grain export deal, with slow plantings in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in Argentina, contributing to continued high prices towards the end of 2022.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.5: Monthly oilseed rape price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.5: Figure 6.5 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for oilseed rape in 2021 and 2022. The price index for oilseed rape increased steadily throughout 2021 and strongly in the first half of 2022, reaching a peak in June 2022. Strong declines were then observed in the summer before more steady declines towards the end of the year.
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The annual price index for oilseed rape increased by 37% in 2022 compared with 2021. As for cereals, a mid-year peak was observed for oilseed rape prices, with price declines in the second half of the year. The observed price increases were driven by significantly reduced Ukrainian exports amid the conflict with Russia, with the Black Sea export deal helping to ease prices in the second half of the year.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.6: Monthly cattle and calves price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description fort Figure 6.6: Figure 6.6 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for cattle and calves in 2021 and 2022. The price index for cattle and calves steadily increased throughout 2021 and 2022, with slight drops in May and October of both years.
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The annual price index for cattle and calves increased by 10% in 2022 compared with 2021. Moderate price increases were recorded in the first quarter of 2022 with prices stabilising over the rest of the year. The observed increases can be attributed to rises in animal feed costs, which saw strong price growth early in 2022 in line with cereal price growth. Increases in throughput later in the year were able to keep prices for cattle somewhat stable despite the high feed prices, though seasonal price growth was observed at the end of the year.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.7: Monthly sheep and lambs price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.7: Figure 6.7 is a line chart showing the price index for sheep and lambs for 2021 and 2022. The price index fluctuated in both years, with the highest values observed in the spring and early summer months. Increases were also observed towards the end of each year, particularly in 2021.
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The annual price index for sheep and lambs decreased by 0.7% in 2022 compared with 2021, with fluctuations observed across the year similar to those seen in 2021. Price increases were seen in the first half of the year as a result of lower throughput. Retail sales of lamb fell over the summer months as inflation climbed and consumers switched to cheaper forms of protein (e.g. pork), contributing to the price falls seen over this time. Lamb prices continued to ease towards the end of the year in line with feed prices and with increased throughputs.
Figure 6.8: Monthly pigs price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.8: Figure 6.8 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for pigs for 2021 and 2022. The price index for pigs fluctuated in 2021, peaking in July, while strong increases were observed in 2022, particularly in the spring. The price index levelled off towards the end of 2022.
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The annual price index for pigs increased by 20% in 2022 compared with 2021. Strong price growth was observed in the first half of 2021 with rapid increases in animal feed prices, driven by the impact of the war in Ukraine on the global cereals market. A notable change for 2022 is the lack of the usual seasonal price movements for pork, which would usually follow a pattern of price increases leading up to the summer followed by decreases thereafter. Prices have instead remained high this year and have continued to increase steadily over the summer and remained high through the autumn. This is due to elevated feed and energy prices - key commodities associated with the production of pig meat.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.9: Monthly milk price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.9: Figure 6.9 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for milk in 2021 and 2022. The price index for milk initially remained stable before steadily increasing throughout the latter half of 2021 and increasing more rapidly in 2022, particularly over the summer. Price increases slowed down towards the end of 2022.
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The annual price index for milk increased by 42% in 2022 compared with 2021. Milk prices saw persistent growth throughout 2022 with particularly strong rises in the summer months. These increases were a result of significant input cost increases, particularly with fertiliser, feed and fuel, with these three items accounting for around a third of total production costs. Despite these cost challenges, the vast majority of dairy farmers chose to remain in the industry, with a reduction of only 150 producers being observed between October 2021 and October 2022.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.10: Quarterly eggs price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.10: Figure 6.10 is a line graph showing the quarterly price index for eggs in 2021 and 2022. The price index for eggs remained stable throughout 2021, dropping slightly in the final quarter. Substantial price increases were observed in 2022, with the largest increase occurring in the final quarter.
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The annual price index for eggs increased by 10% in 2022 compared with 2021. Prices increased throughout the first three quarters of the year, driven by high input costs and production contraction following a sectoral shift away from intensive and towards free range/barn production systems. Production decreased further as some farmers were forced to leave the industry or reduce the size of their flocks in response to the rising input costs, which were further exacerbated by the need to house all birds indoors for much of the year amid outbreaks of Avian Influenza.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Agricultural inputs
Figure 6.11: Monthly fertilisers and soil improvers price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.11: Figure 6.11 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for fertilisers and soil improvers for 2021 and 2022. The price index for fertilisers and soil improvers increased steadily over the first three quarters of 2021, increasing more rapidly towards the end of the year and into 2022, reaching a peak in summer 2022. Steady declines were observed towards the end of 2022.
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The annual price index for fertilisers and soil improvers increased by 104% in 2022 compared with 2021. Inflation in this index was strongest in the first half of 2022 amid the emergence of conflict between Russia and Ukraine and was overwhelmingly driven by fertilisers, with soil improvers seeing a much less significant rise. Fertiliser production is energy intensive and the industry was heavily impacted by increasing natural gas prices, resulting in reduced domestic production and supply, with some individual fertiliser prices up by more than 300%. Fertiliser prices started to drop towards the end of 2022 in line with reductions in wholesale gas prices, pressured by lower demand amid mild autumnal weather in Europe.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.12: Monthly energy and lubricants price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.12: Figure 6.12 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for energy and lubricants for 2021 and 2022. The price index for energy and lubricants increased steadily throughout 2021 and more rapidly going into 2022, before fluctuating over the summer and reaching a peak in November 2022. A modest decrease was observed at the end of the year.
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The annual price index for energy and lubricants increased by 52% in 2022 compared with 2021. The strongest price rises were observed in the first half of 2022 amid rising wholesale gas prices, with prices remaining elevated over the summer months and peaking in November 2022. In contrast to fertilisers and soil improvers, another index driven by movements in wholesale gas prices, reductions in the energy and lubricants price index were not seen until the end of 2022 due to the persistence of high road petrol and diesel prices.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.13: Monthly animal feedingstuffs price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.13: Figure 6.13 is a line chart showing the price index for animal feedingstuffs for 2021 and 2022. The price index for animal feedingstuffs remained stable throughout 2021, though increased slightly towards the end of the year. Substantial increases were observed in 2022, with the largest increase occurring between March and April. Thereafter, the price index increased slightly into the summer months, before holding steady for the remainder of the year.
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The annual price index for animal feedingstuffs increased by 29% in 2022 compared with 2021. The strongest price rises were seen in the spring, with prices stabilising over the summer and into the autumn. By-products of cereals (e.g. feed oats) saw the most significant price rises in the face of tightened wheat supplies as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine took hold. This was countered by increased associated UK crop yields, with wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape all reporting increased yields in 2022 over 2021.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Figure 6.14: Monthly maintenance of buildings price index, 2021 and 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
Text description for Figure 6.14: Figure 6.14 is a line chart showing the monthly price index for maintenance of buildings for 2021 and 2022. The price index for maintenance of buildings increased steadily throughout 2021 and the first half of 2022, reaching a peak in July, before steadily falling in the remainder of the year.
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The annual price index for maintenance of buildings increased by 19% in 2022 compared with 2021. The most significant price rises took place in the first half of 2022, with prices stabilising over the summer and autumn months. Insulating materials and sand & gravel have seen the most significant price rises, with the latter seeing continually falling sales throughout 2022.
These data come from the monthly Agricultural Price Index publication.
Summary table of price indices
Table 6.1: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs, 2021 to 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
| Category | 2021 | 2022 | Annual inflation rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 121.8 | 161.6 | 33 |
| Barley | 131.2 | 185.7 | 42 |
| Oats | 111.1 | 164.0 | 48 |
| Oilseed rape | 136.8 | 186.9 | 37 |
| Sugar beet | 101.1 | 131.4 | 30 |
| Forage plants | 136.1 | 78.4 | -42 |
| Fresh vegetables | 106.6 | 118.1 | 11 |
| Plants and flowers | 106.8 | 110.6 | 3.5 |
| Potatoes | 102.6 | 107.7 | 4.9 |
| Fresh fruit | 95.7 | 94.0 | -1.8 |
| Cattle and calves | 114.3 | 126.3 | 10 |
| Pigs | 91.8 | 110.5 | 20 |
| Sheep and lambs | 121.8 | 120.9 | -0.7 |
| Poultry | 100.7 | 103.5 | 2.8 |
| Milk | 108.8 | 154.2 | 42 |
| Eggs | 109.0 | 120.4 | 10 |
| All agricultural outputs | 109.9 | 130.6 | 19 |
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Table 6.2: Annual average price indices for agricultural inputs, 2021 to 2022 (2020 = 100)
Enquiries:
Katie Fisher on +44 (0)20 8565 4419
Email: katie.fisher@defra.gov.uk
| Category | 2021 | 2022 | Annual inflation rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seeds | 104.4 | 109.3 | 4.7 |
| Energy and lubricants | 116.3 | 176.3 | 52 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 145.8 | 297.9 | 104 |
| Plant protection products | 100.9 | 111.5 | 11 |
| Veterinary services | 100.8 | 102.3 | 1.5 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 115.6 | 144.0 | 24 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | 113.9 | 148.5 | 30 |
| Maintenance of materials | 103.9 | 110.6 | 6.5 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 115.2 | 137.2 | 19 |
| Other goods and services | 103.0 | 110.6 | 7.4 |
| Materials | 102.4 | 118.3 | 16 |
| Buildings | 112.6 | 133.7 | 19 |
| All agricultural inputs | 111.4 | 143.2 | 28 |