Accredited official statistics

Chapter 14: The food chain

Published 6 June 2024

Summary

• In 2022, the agri-food sector (excluding fishing) in the United Kingdom accounted for a total estimated Gross Value Added (GVA) of £146.7bn or 6.5% of national GVA, an increase of 15% since 2021. (For the overall GVA figure for the agri-food sector, refer to the Food Statistics Pocketbook which includes fishing, adding roughly an extra billion pounds to GVA each year.) The food and drink wholesaling sector increased by 31% between 2021 and 2022. All other sectors also saw an increase.

• Employment in the agri-food sector in Great Britain grew by 3.3% over the 12-month period to the fourth quarter of 2022 to just under 4.2 million. The largest percent change was seen in non-residential catering which rose by 7.9% (144,000 employees).

• Total factor productivity of the food chain increased by 3.7% while there was a decrease of 0.2% in productivity in the wider economy. In the 10 years prior to 2021, the average annual growth rate of the food chain was 0.6% while the wider economy’s average annual growth rate was 0.2%.

• Consumer expenditure on food and alcoholic drinks (at constant prices) decreased by 1.2% from £248.5bn in 2022 to £245.5bn in 2023 and was 14% higher than in 2013. Expenditure on food and drink eaten out increased by 0.6% from £116.9bn in 2022 to £117.6bn in 2023, whilst expenditure on household food decreased by 2.8% from £109.6bn to £106.5bn and expenditure on alcoholic drinks (off-licence only) decreased by 2.8% from £22.0bn to £21.3bn.

Contribution of the agri-food sector to the national economy

Figure 14.1 Gross Value Added of the agri-food sector, 2022 (£ billion)

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

Sector	Gross Value Added	Share of total
Agriculture (excluding fishing)	£13.9bn	9%
Food and drink manufacturing	£35.1bn	24%
Food and drink wholesaling	£16.6bn	11%
Food and drink retailing	£37.7bn	26%
Food and drink non-residential catering	£43.4bn	30%

Notes:

1. 2023 figures not yet available from the Annual Business Survey (ABS).

Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Aggregate Agricultural Accounts (Defra).

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In 2022 the agri-food sector (excluding fishing) contributed £146.7bn to the economy, 6.5% of the national GVA. Within this, catering accounted for the largest proportion at 30% followed by retailing at 26% and manufacturing at 24%. The agriculture sector made the smallest contribution at 9%.

Table 14.1a to 14.1f - Agri-food sector’s contribution to the national economy (£ million unless otherwise specified)

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

Table 14.1a

Sector	2021	2022	2023
Agri-food sector’s contribution to total economy gross value added	127,236	146,714	[x]
Agriculture (not including fishing)	12,064	13,859	[x]
Food and drink manufacturing	30,428	35,067	[x]
Food and drink wholesaling	12,672	16,642	[x]
Food and drink retailing	36,870	37,710	[x]
Food and drink non-residential catering	35,202	43,436	[x]
% of national gross value added	6.2%	6.5%	[x]

Table 14.1b

Sector	2021	2022	2023
Workforce in the food sector (thousand persons)	4,035	4,168	[x]
Agriculture (including fishing)	425	428	[x]
Food and drink manufacturing	414	419	[x]
Food and drink wholesaling	199	207	[x]
Food and drink retailing	1,162	1,134	[x]
Food and drink non-residential catering	1,835	1,979	[x]
% of total workforce in employment	13%	13%	[x]

Table 14.1c

Trade in food, feed and drink in real terms at 2023 prices	2021	2022	2023
Imports of food, feed and drink	63,537	66,966	61,081
% of total UK imports	11%	10%	10%
Exports of food, feed and drink	24,483	27,499	24,425
% of total UK exports	6.1%	6.3%	5.8%

Table 14.1d

UK food production to supply ratio (‘self-sufficiency’)	2021	2022	2023
% of all food	61%	60%	62%
% of indigenous type food	74%	73%	75%

Table 14.1e

Household final consumption expenditure on food and alcoholic drinks	2021	2022	2023
At current prices	242,181	276,755	298,285
Household food and non-alcoholic beverages	117,950	123,476	137,297
Food and drink eaten out	98,388	129,771	137,051
Alcoholic drinks (off-licence only)	25,843	23,508	23,937
At constant 2022 prices	233,971	248,464	245,511
Household food and non-alcoholic beverages	116,158	109,581	106,540
Food and drink eaten out	93,107	116,917	117,627
Alcoholic drinks (off-licence only)	24,706	21,966	21,344
% of total household final consumption expenditure (current prices)	18%	18%	19%
Household food and non-alcoholic beverages	8.9%	8.2%	8.5%
Food and drink eaten out	7.4%	8.6%	8.5%
Alcoholic drinks (off-licence only)	2.0%	1.6%	1.5%

Table 14.1f

Consumer Price Index (2015 = 100)	2021	2022	2023
All Items	111.6	121.7	130.5
Food and non-alcoholic beverages	104.2	115.5	132.3
Alcoholic beverages	103.3	105.8	114.0

Notes for tables 14.1a to 14.1f:

1. 2023 trade figures are provisional and subject to revision

2. [x] means ‘not available’

3. An issue was detected in the weighting of the Labour Force Survey for Northern Ireland for Q4 2023 (October 2023 to December 2023). ONS will provide these figures in the next quarterly release. This means we have been unable to publish employment figures for 2023 in time for the release of AUK 2023.

Sources: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Aggregate Agricultural Accounts (Defra), Labour Force Survey GB (ONS), Overseas Trade Statistics (HMRC), Consumer Price Indices (ONS).

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Agri-food sector employees and self-employed farmers

Figure 14.2 Agri-food sector employees and self-employed farmers, Great Britain, 2022 (millions)

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

Sector	Number of employees	Share of total
Agriculture	0.4	10%
Food and drink manufacturing	0.4	10%
Food and drink wholesaling	0.2	5%
Food and drink retailing	1.1	27%
Food and drink non-residential catering	2.0	48%

Notes:

1. An issue was detected in the weighting of the Labour Force Survey for Q4 2023 (October 2023 to December 2023). ONS will provide these figures in the next quarterly release. This means we have been unable to publish employment figures for 2023 in time for the release of AUK 2023.

Source: Labour Force Survey GB (ONS), June Survey of Agriculture (Defra)

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In 2022, the agri-food sector employed 4.2 million people, or 13% of all employees in Great Britain. This proportion has been broadly the same since 2001. Agriculture accounts for less than half a million employees or 10% of the agri-food sector.

In the twelve months to December 2022, employment in the agri-food sector increased by 3.3%. Employment fell in 2022 in retailing (2.4%), but increased in non-residential catering (7.9%), wholesaling (4.3%) and manufacturing (1.2%).

Employment across the whole GB economy rose by 3% over the same period.

Employment in the agri-food sector has risen 16% since 2000. Changes in each of the sectors since 2000 show that employment in agriculture, manufacturing and wholesaling fell by 23%, 13% and 6.1% respectively, while retailing and non-residential catering increased by 4.1% and 57% respectively.

Total Factor Productivity

In 2021, the productivity of the food chain increased by 3.7% while there was a decrease of 0.2% in productivity in the wider economy. In the 10 years prior to 2021, the average annual growth rate of the food chain was 0.6% while the wider economy’s average annual growth rate was 0.2%.

In 2021, all four of the food sectors had a higher productivity than in 2020.

In 2021, total factor productivity in food and drink manufacturing increased by 3.2% and increased by 0.2% over the last 10 years.

Total factor productivity of food wholesaling increased by 1.5% in 2021, while in the last 10 years has shown an average annual increase of 0.8%.

Productivity of the food retail sector increased by 2.3% in 2021. In the last 10 years, productivity has shown an average annual increase of 1.2%.

In 2021, non-residential catering (NRC) showed a increase in productivity of 11%.

For more information on productivity please see the Total Factor Productivity of the United Kingdom Food Chain publication.

Trade in food, feed and drink

In 2023, the value of food, feed and drink exports was £24.4bn, a decrease of 11% on 2022. In 2023 the value of food, feed and drink imports decreased by 8.8% to £61.1bn in real terms, resulting in the trade gap in food, feed and drink of £36.7bn in real terms, a decrease of 7.1% since 2022. See Chapter 13 for more detail on overseas trade.

Food production to supply ratio

Figure 14.3 Food production to supply ratio, 1956-2023

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

Source: Defra analysis of HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics

Text description of Figure 14.3: Figure 14.3 is a line chart showing how the food production to supply ratio for the UK has changed from 1956 to 2023. The ratio stabilised in the most recent decade at around 60% after falling from over 80% in the 1980s but is higher than it has been historically. The ratio for indigenous only food types follows the same trend but is consistently several percentage points higher than the ratio for all food types.

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The food production to supply ratio (commonly referred to as the “self-sufficiency ratio”), is calculated as the farmgate value of raw food production divided by the value of raw food for human consumption and is estimated to be 62% for all food in 2023 and 75% of indigenous type food. In 2022, this was 60% and 73% respectively. Table 14.2 contains production to supply ratios for selected crops and other primary agricultural products. For these individual products, the production to supply ratio is calculated using volumes rather than value.

Table 14.2 Food production to supply ratio

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

	2021	2022	2023
Cereals	86%	92%	93%
Wheat	89%	95%	96%
Barley	110%	112%	113%
Oats	101%	121%	120%
Other crops
Oilseed rape	52%	64%	63%
Sugar beet	63%	55%	54%
Fresh vegetables	57%	54%	53%
Potatoes	74%	63%	62%
Cabbages	90%	86%	[X]
Cauliflowers and broccoli	64%	55%	[X]
Carrots, turnips and swede	96%	99%	[X]
Mushrooms	47%	49%	[X]
Lettuce	34%	45%	[X]
Tomatoes	17%	16%	[X]
Fresh fruit	15%	17%	16%
Apples	38%	40%	[X]
Pears	16%	14%	[X]
Plums	9%	14%	[X]
Strawberries	64%	67%	[X]
Raspberries	30%	38%	[X]
Meat and dairy
Beef and veal	83%	87%	85%
Pig meat	71%	69%	64%
Mutton and lamb	108%	107%	114%
Poultry meat	93%	84%	82%
Milk	105%	105%	105%
Eggs	92%	90%	87%

Notes:

1. 2023 figures are provisional.
2. Average ratios for categories cereals, other crops, fresh vegetables and fresh fruit may include more items than the selected items listed in the table.
3. [x] means ‘not available’.

Source: Chapters 7 - Crops and 8 - Livestock of this publication are used for category averages (e.g. fresh vegetables) and potatoes and all meat and dairy products. Defra’s Horticulture Statistics for all other individual products.

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Distinction between competitiveness and food security

The food production to supply ratio provides a very broad indicator of the ability of United Kingdom agriculture to meet consumer demand - also described as competitiveness. The ratio is not an appropriate measure of “food security” since it fails to account for many dimensions of this complex issue.

A high food production to supply ratio fails to insulate a country against many possible disruptions to its supply chain.

Diversity enhances security. The United Kingdom sources foods from diverse stable countries, mainly European countries, and imports can make up for domestic supply shortages (see Figure 14.4).

A detailed analysis is given in the Defra publication ‘UK Food Security Report’.

The UK Food Security Report (UKFSR) 2021 was the first comprehensive review of the UK’s food security to be published since the UK Food Security Assessment (UKFSA), which was first published in 2009 and updated in 2010. The next edition of the UKFSR will be published in 2024.

In the decade since the UKFSA, the food security landscape changed significantly. The UK’s departure from the European Union brought changes in the areas of trade, farming, and access to fisheries, resulting in both challenges and opportunities in food security. Climate change and its impacts on farming and the food supply chain are now also better understood.

The COVID-19 pandemic and other concurrent events happening towards the end of 2020, such as the UK leaving the EU and increased food demand in the run up to Christmas, have stress-tested the supply chain, highlighting both the vulnerabilities in this complex system and the resilience and flexibility of the UK’s food supply.

In addition, the pandemic has increased public awareness in a range of food security areas. This includes the complexities and dependencies of the UK’s food supply chain, notably the advantages and risks of just-in-time food supplies, as well as the issues surrounding household food insecurity.

Origins of food consumed in the United Kingdom

Figure 14.4 includes the proportion of United Kingdom food consumption that is produced in the United Kingdom. This should not be confused with the food production to supply ratio given in Figure 14.3. Figure 14.4 looks purely at the breakdown of food that the United Kingdom actually consumes.

The food production to supply ratio (see Figure 14.3) considers all United Kingdom food production, including food that the United Kingdom exports instead of consuming. A further, much smaller difference is that the United Kingdom food production used in the food production to supply ratio calculations has been adjusted to take account of the balance of trade in important inputs into agriculture.

Figure 14.4 Origins of food consumed in the United Kingdom, 2023 (percentage)

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

Origin of destination	2023
UK exports	-9%
UK	58%
EU	24%
Rest of Europe	3%
Africa	4%
Asia	3%
Australasia	1%
North America	3%
South America	4%

Notes:

1. Based on the farm-gate value of raw food.

2. Consumption of UK origin consists of UK domestic production minus UK exports.

3. UK exports are given as a percentage of total UK consumption.

Source: Defra analysis of HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics

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Supply includes domestic production plus imports and excludes exports of home production. In 2023, 58% of domestic consumption came from UK production (based on unprocessed value at farmgate), 24% from the EU and the remaining 18% from the rest of the world. 33 countries accounted for 90% of imported supply, and 22 for 80%. Some countries or regions are uniquely important to the supply of particular products such as bananas from the Caribbean and Central America, reducing the security of this supply.

Consumers’ expenditure

Figure 14.5 Consumers’ expenditure on food, drink and eating out 2003-2023 (£ billion at constant prices)

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

Source: Consumer trends, ONS

Text description of Figure 14.5: Figure 14.5 is a line chart that shows the amount of consumer spending in the UK on food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink (off-licence only) and for catering from 2002 to 2023.

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After taking into account the effects of price rises (constant prices) consumers’ expenditure on food and alcoholic drinks decreased by 1.2% from £248.5bn in 2022 to £245.5bn in 2023 and was 14.1% higher than in 2013.

Expenditure on food and drink eaten out increased by 0.6% from £116.9bn in 2022 to £117.6bn in 2023, whilst expenditure on household food decreased by 2.8% from £109.6bn to £106.5bn and expenditure on alcoholic drinks (off-licence only) decreased by 2.8% from £22.0bn to £21.3bn.

Changes in consumers’ price indices

Figure 14.6 Changes in the food price index (in constant prices, food and non-alcoholic beverages) 2000-2023 (2015 = 100)

Enquiries: David Lee on +44 (0)20 802 63006
Email: david.lee@defra.gov.uk

Source: Consumer Price Index (ONS)

Text description of Figure 14.6: Figure 14.6 shows the changes in the consumer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages from 2000 to the end of 2023.

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Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in real terms were fairly stable between 2000 and 2007, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), before rising by 12% between July 2007 and February 2009. Prices then followed a more gradual increase until February 2014. From a peak in February 2014, food prices fell steadily to October 2016 and, after improving in 2017, fell again to November 2018. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fluctuated in 2019 before falling sharply in the second half of 2020. Prices remained low in 2021.

This has been followed by a recent spike from the early part of 2022, due to food prices generally rising faster than other items. This was in part a consequence of the onset of the war in Ukraine leading to global food supply issues and rising energy costs. However, the rise appeared to have tailed off towards the end of 2023.

Glossary

Standard Industry Classification codes (SIC codes)

These are numerical codes that categorise the industries that companies belong to based on their business activities.

Economic definition of food and agri-food sector

The UK food sector is defined as food manufacturing, food wholesaling, food retailing and non-residential catering.  In terms of the standard industrial classification (SIC 2007) it is defined as:

Category	SIC codes
Food manufacturing:	10 + 11
Food wholesaling:	46.3 (excluding 46.35) + 46.17
Food retailing:	47.2 (excluding 47.26) + 47.11 + 47.81
Non-residential catering:	56

• In SIC2007 the food manufacturing sector comprises of nine main categories including processing and preserving meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables, oils, bread, biscuits and cakes, and confectionery. Animal feed manufacturing is included, covering both farm animal feed and pet food. The drink manufacturing sector includes alcoholic beverages and soft drinks and mineral waters.

• Food and drink wholesaling consists of the buying, storage and reselling of food either manufactured or freshly produced. Wholesale of tobacco products (46.35) is not included, but SIC code 46.17 "Agents involved in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco" is included. This group includes wholesalers that trade on behalf of others on a fee or contract basis and also 46.3 which is "Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco".

• Food and drink retailing is defined as the sale of food within both non-specialised stores (e.g. supermarkets), 47.11, and specialised stores such as butchers and bakers, 47.11 and 47.81. The sale of tobacco products is subtracted from the specialised stores using 47.26 and then subtracted from the non-specialised stores later on using a ratio for food and drink.

• Non-residential catering (NRC) consists of restaurants and bars involved in preparation and serving of food, alongside canteens and catering services. Hotels are not included.

The deductions are to remove non-food items as far as possible.
The agri-food sector is the food sector plus agriculture and fishing.

Gross Value Added (GVA)

GVA is the difference between output and intermediate consumption for any given sector / industry. This is the difference between the value of goods and services produced and the cost of raw materials and other inputs which are used up in production.

Total Factor Productivity (TFP)

Productivity measures the efficiency at which inputs are converted into outputs. Total Factor Productivity provides a comprehensive picture of growth.