Estimated number and type of GB families and individuals in families benefitting from the uprating of benefits in financial year 2025 to 2026 and the Fair Repayment Rate
Published 30 October 2024
Applies to England, Scotland and Wales
© Crown copyright 2024
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/benefit-uprating-estimated-number-and-type-of-families-and-individuals-in-families-benefitting-from-the-uprating-of-benefits-in-2025-to-2026/estimated-number-and-type-of-gb-families-and-individuals-in-families-benefitting-from-the-uprating-of-benefits-in-2025-to-2026-and-the-fair-repayment
Introduction
The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions has a statutory obligation to conduct an annual review of State Pension and benefit rates. The Treasury has a separate statutory obligation to conduct an annual review of HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) administered benefits. Parliament is informed of the outcome of these reviews by means of Ministerial Statements and publication of a list of the existing and new benefit and pension rates on GOV.UK.
Subject to Parliamentary approval, the basic and new State Pension rates, the Standard Minimum Guarantee in Pension Credit and widows’ and widowers’ benefits in Industrial Death Benefit will increase from April 2025 by 4.1%, in line with the increase in Average Weekly Earnings in the year to May to July 2024.
Other State Pension and benefit rates covered by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) statutory review will be increased by 1.7%, in line with the increase in CPI in the year to September 2024. This includes universal credit and other benefits and statutory payments linked to participation in the labour market; and additional state pension and pension credit elements other than the standard minimum guarantee.
Benefits administered by HMRC will rise by 1.7% from April 2025, in line with the increase in CPI in the year to September 2024. This is with the exception of Tax Credits, which will have no rates in financial year (FY) 2025 to 2026 as all awards will cease at the end of FY 2024 to 2025[footnote 1].
This release shows the estimated number and type of families and individuals in families benefitting from the uprating of State Pension rates and benefits in FY 2025 to 2026 in Great Britain.
As announced in the Budget, the overall cap for Universal Credit (UC) deductions will be reduced to 15% from April 2025. In addition, child maintenance deductions will now be moved up the priority order before repayments of Advances. Statistics on the impact of this policy are shown below.
Existing Official Statistics on benefit recipients
DWP publish a comprehensive set of benefit statistics on Stat-Xplore. This includes Official Statistics on the number and characteristics of DWP benefit claimants as well as average amounts awarded. In addition, official statistics on combinations of DWP benefits[footnote 2] paid or administered to benefit claimants are available each quarter. HMRC publish statistics on the number of claimants of Child Benefit.
Benefit uprating affects a wide range of benefits, including both DWP and HMRC-administered benefits. However, there is no overarching publication that captures this information as a whole. For some benefits, information on family members is also not always collected.
Statistics on benefit receipt in this release
This release therefore uses a combination of survey data and caseload forecasts to estimate how many and what type of families and individuals living in families are affected by benefit uprating and will therefore either have an increase in their benefit amounts or be living with someone who has an increase in their benefit amounts from April 2025. Examples are also provided to show how uprating will affect benefit amounts for specific family types.
Although HMRC-administered benefits are paid UK-wide, this release is restricted to Great Britain only; this ensures coverage is consistent and populations are comparable across the two Departments. Northern Ireland social security benefits are transferred to the Department for Communities in Northern Ireland and are therefore not in-scope for this release. The release also does not include families who are only in receipt of benefits which have been devolved to the Scottish Parliament, such as Personal Independence Payment[footnote 3]. The only HMRC benefit included in this publication is Child Benefit. Guardian’s Allowance is excluded due to small sample sizes.
The figures presented here are estimated so they are subject to a degree of uncertainty. See Notes for further detail.
Families in-scope for benefit uprating in FY 2025 to 2026
These statistics provide an estimate of the number of families in Great Britain that are in receipt of at least one DWP-administered or HMRC-administered benefit which will be subject to uprating in April 2025. They also include an estimate of the number of individuals that live in these families, broken down by type of individual.
An estimated 19.7 million families and 39.5 million individuals in families in Great Britain in receipt of DWP and HMRC benefits will see an increase in their benefits next year.
Estimated number of families with at least one DWP and HMRC benefit uprated in FY 2025 to 2026, by family type
| Number of families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 19,700,000 |
| Pensioner – single | 4,600,000 |
| Pensioner – couple | 3,200,000 |
| Working-Age and Pensioner couple | 1,100,000 |
| Working-Age couple with children | 3,800,000 |
| Working-Age single with children | 2,300,000 |
| Working-Age couple without children | 900,000 |
| Working-Age single without children | 3,800,000 |
Estimated number of families with at least one DWP and HMRC benefit uprated in FY 2025 to 2026, by region
| Number of families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 19,700,000 |
| North East | 900,000 |
| North West | 2,400,000 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 1,800,000 |
| East Midlands | 1,500,000 |
| West Midlands | 1,900,000 |
| East | 1,800,000 |
| London | 2,200,000 |
| South East | 2,500,000 |
| South West | 1,800,000 |
| England | 17,000,000 |
| Wales | 1,100,000 |
| Scotland | 1,700,000 |
Estimated number of individuals living in families with at least one DWP and HMRC benefit uprated in FY 2025 to 2026, by region and type of individual
| All Individuals in families | Pensioners in families | Working-Age in families | Children in families | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB Total | 39,500,000 | 12,200,000 | 16,500,000 | 10,900,000 |
| North East | 1,800,000 | 500,000 | 800,000 | 500,000 |
| North West | 4,800,000 | 1,400,000 | 2,100,000 | 1,400,000 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 3,600,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,500,000 | 1,000,000 |
| East Midlands | 3,100,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,300,000 | 900,000 |
| West Midlands | 3,900,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,700,000 | 1,100,000 |
| East | 3,700,000 | 1,200,000 | 1,500,000 | 1,000,000 |
| London | 4,500,000 | 1,100,000 | 2,000,000 | 1,400,000 |
| South East | 5,200,000 | 1,800,000 | 2,000,000 | 1,400,000 |
| South West | 3,600,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,400,000 | 900,000 |
| England | 34,300,000 | 10,500,000 | 14,300,000 | 9,500,000 |
| Wales | 2,100,000 | 700,000 | 900,000 | 600,000 |
| Scotland | 3,100,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,300,000 | 800,000 |
Estimated number of working-age individuals living in families with at least one benefit uprated in FY 2025 to 2026, by benefit type
| Number of working-age individuals in families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 16,500,000 |
| Child Benefit only | 4,900,000 |
| Child Benefit and other benefits | 4,600,000 |
| Other benefits only | 6,900,000 |
Estimated number of children living in families with at least one benefit uprated in FY 2025 to 2026, by benefit type
| Number of children in families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 10,900,000 |
| Child Benefit only | 4,300,000 |
| Child Benefit and other benefits | 6,100,000 |
| Other benefits only | 400,000 |
Notes to tables
Notes:
-
number of families and individuals in families is rounded to the nearest 100,000. Figures may not sum due to rounding
-
a family is defined as a single adult or a married or cohabiting couple and any dependent children or young people in full-time advanced education
-
individuals in families includes all individuals within the specified group (for example, Working-Age) that are living in a family which is affected by benefit uprating
-
figures include the impact of the benefit cap and tax on benefit awards
-
Social security is a transferred matter in Northern Ireland. Therefore, these statistics exclude Child Benefit recipients in Northern Ireland
-
State Pensions are also uprated in countries outside the UK where there is a legal obligation to do so but these figures exclude such cases. They also exclude families only in receipt of benefits such as Personal Independence Payment[footnote 4] in Scotland which have been devolved to the Scottish Parliament
-
Child Benefit receipt refers to cases in payment. Recipients may have to pay the High Income Child Benefit Charge if the claimant or their partner has an individual income that is above £60,000. If the income exceeds £80,000 these families would not benefit from uprating due to the associated High Income Child Benefit Charge
-
estimates of families and individuals benefiting are based on survey data which is calibrated to national benefit forecasts. There is therefore increased uncertainty when estimating regional breakdowns below the national level
-
these figures were based on the latest models and forecasts at the time of analysis and therefore will not be fully consistent and should not be compared with final forecast benefit caseload data due to be published later this year on the GOV.UK website at Benefit expenditure and caseload tables. The “Benefit expenditure and caseload tables” will reflect the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR’s) final Autumn Budget position
Example benefit amounts
The following are examples of how uprating will impact benefit amounts for different family types.
Example weekly amounts
| Benefit Type | FY 2024 to 2025 amount | FY 2025 to 2026 amount | Increase in benefit amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Basic State Pension | £169.50 | £176.45 | £6.95 |
| Full New State Pension | £221.20 | £230.25 | £9.05 |
| Pension Credit Standard Minimum Guarantee, Single | £218.15 | £227.10 | £8.95 |
| Pension Credit Standard Minimum Guarantee, Couple | £332.95 | £346.60 | £13.65 |
| Child Benefit, two children | £42.55 | £43.40 | £0.75 |
Example Monthly amounts
| Benefit Type | FY 2024 to 2025 amount | FY 2025 to 2026 amount | Increase in benefit amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universal Credit, single, aged 25+ | £393.45 | £400.14 | £6.69 |
| Universal Credit, single, aged 25+ with limited capability for work and work-related activity | £809.64 | £823.41 | £13.77 |
| Universal Credit, single, aged 25+ and one child (born on or after 6 April 2017) | £681.37 | £692.95 | £11.58 |
| Universal Credit, couple, at least one adult 25+ and two children (born on or after 6 April 2017) | £1,193.44 | £1,213.72 | £20.28 |
Illustrative average annual amounts
In FY 2025 to 2026, around 5.7 million Universal Credit families are forecast to benefit from uprating with an average annual gain for a family on Universal Credit estimated to be £150 (equivalent to an increase of around £12.50 per month), however gains will vary depending on the elements received by different family types.
The Pension Credit Standard Minimum Guarantee will increase by 4.1%, or £465 a year for a single person and £710 for a couple.
Data and Methodology
This analysis uses the Department for Work and Pensions’ Policy Simulation Model (PSM) of the UK tax and benefit system to estimate the number of families and individuals in families that would be eligible for the uprating of DWP benefits and benefits administered by HMRC (for this release, the only HMRC benefit included is Child Benefit due to small sample sizes for Guardian’s Allowance). The PSM is a static microsimulation model based on a snapshot of the UK population from the Family Resources Survey (FRS)[footnote 5], currently for the FY 2022 to 2023. It uses caseload forecasts alongside the benefit rules to simulate results for each year, currently up to and including 2029 to 2030.
In this analysis, the PSM is used to model the average number of families over the FY 2025 to 2026 that would be eligible for benefit uprating. The number of people living in families that would benefit from uprating was also modelled. This includes those who indirectly benefit from uprating, for example a couple where one partner is in receipt of a disability benefit, but the other partner is not would be counted as two people. Individuals and families may also receive multiple benefits, as such these figures should not be considered a count of benefit caseloads.
For pensioner families and individuals, off-model adjustments have been made to calibrate to benefit forecasts. The advantage of using the model compared with administrative data for this purpose is that it models both DWP and HMRC benefits; it allows us to estimate all gainers in families, not just those captured in the admin data; it also allows analysis of beneficiaries by family type.
Estimates of families and individuals benefiting are based on survey data which is calibrated to national benefit forecasts. There is therefore increased uncertainty when estimating regional breakdowns below the national level.
These figures were based on the latest models and forecasts at the time of analysis and therefore will not be fully consistent and should not be compared with final forecast benefit caseload data due to be published later this year on the GOV.UK website at Benefit expenditure and caseload tables. The “Benefit expenditure and caseload tables” will reflect OBR’s final Budget position.
Impact of Fair Repayment Rate
As announced in the Budget, the overall cap for Universal Credit (UC) deductions will be reduced from the current 25% of the standard allowance to 15% from April 2025. In addition, child maintenance deductions will now be moved higher up the priority order. Statistics on the impact of this policy are shown below. They have been derived from UC administrative data by modelling the impact of the new UC deductions policy on the deductions held by UC households in May 2024. The number of households[footnote 6] affected - and the amount they benefit by – may vary due to the characteristics of the UC caseload after the policy is introduced.
Estimated number of families benefitting from the Fair Repayment Rate, using May 2024 data
| Total benefitting | |
|---|---|
| All families | 1,200,000 |
| Families with children | 700,000 |
Estimated number of individuals benefitting from the Fair Repayment Rate, using May 2024 data
| Total benefitting | |
|---|---|
| Individuals | 3,000,000 |
| Adults | 1,500,000 |
| Children | 1,600,000 |
1.2 million families, including 700,000 families with children, will benefit by, on average, £420/year.
Notes to tables
Note:
- Figures are for Great Britain and rounded to the nearest 100,000.
Statement of Compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics
The Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code) is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:
- trustworthiness – having confidence in the people and organisations that publish statistics
- quality – using data and methods that produce statistics
- value – publishing statistics that support society’s needs
The following explains how we have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way in this analysis.
Trustworthiness
The figures were created following interest from DWP ministers, HM Treasury and the Members of Parliament. They are being published now in order to give equal access to all those with an interest in them and better support understanding of the impact of uprating. Regarding the UC deductions reform policy, we similarly want to ensure equal access to the policy impacts, this policy affecting approximately 3 million individuals.
Quality
The data that underpins this information is taken from DWP’s Policy Simulation Model, and from DWP’s administrative data, and includes caseload forecasts taken from DWP and HMRC data, with some off-model adjustments.
The information used refers to families and individuals in families who will be affected by benefit uprating, as above.
Regarding the UC deductions reform policy, the statistics have been derived from UC administrative data by modelling the impact of the new UC deductions policy on the deductions held by UC households6 in May 2024. The methodology has been certified both within DWP and by the OBR.
Value
Releasing this information serves the public interest in how the government is supporting the public. The figures also help reduce the administrative burden of answering Parliamentary questions, Freedom of Information requests and other forms of ad hoc enquiry.
-
All uprating decisions are subject to Parliamentary approval. ↩
-
Attendance Allowance (AA), Bereavement Benefit (BB), Bereavement Support Payment (BSP), Carer’s Allowance (CA), Disability Living Allowance (DLA), Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), Housing Benefit (HB), Incapacity benefit (IB), Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit (IIDB), Income Support (IS), Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), Pension Credit (PC), Personal Independence Payment (PIP), Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA), State Pension (SP), Universal Credit (UC), Widow’s Benefit (WB). ↩
-
Full list of benefits: Attendance Allowance, Carer’s Allowance, Disability Living Allowance, Industrial Injuries Scheme Benefits, Personal Independence Payment and Severe Disablement Allowance. ↩
-
Full list of benefits: Attendance Allowance, Carer’s Allowance, Disability Living Allowance, Industrial Injuries Scheme Benefits, Personal Independence Payment and Severe Disablement Allowance. ↩
-
The Family Resources Survey is a continuous household survey which collects information on a representative sample of private households in the United Kingdom ↩
-
In UC, a “household” is the group of people taken into account in the UC entitlement calculation. That group could also be referred to as a “benefit unit” or “family” (as in the impacts table for the UC Deductions Reforms policy). ↩