Accredited official statistics

Child and Working Tax Credits Finalised Annual Awards 2019 to 2020 Quality Report

Published 29 July 2021

Contact

• Organisation unit - Knowledge, Analysis and Intelligence (KAI)
• Name - O Jasper
• Function - Statistician, Benefits and Credits
• Mail address - KAI Benefits and Credits, HM Revenue and Customs, 100 Parliament Street, London, SW1A 2BQ
• Email - benefitsandcredits.analysis@hmrc.gov.uk

Introduction

Tax credits were introduced in April 2003 replacing Working Families’ Tax Credit, Disabled Person’s Tax Credit and Children’s Tax Credit. They are an important part of the Government’s policy aims to provide adequate financial incentives to work, reduce child poverty and to increase financial support for all families.

Working Tax Credits provide in-work support for people on low incomes, with or without children. It is available for in-work support to people who are aged at least 16 and meet certain criteria.

Child Tax Credits provide income-related support for children and qualifying young people aged 16-19 who are in full time, non-advanced education or approved training into a single tax credit, payable to the main carer. Families can claim CTC whether or not the adults are in work.

More information about tax credits eligibility can be found on GOV.UK.

Statistical Presentation

These statistics focus on the average number of families benefiting from Child Tax Credit (CTC) and/or Working Tax Credit (WTC) and the average entitlement of these families in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in the tax year 2019 to 2020.

This publication presents a breakdown of families by their profile position, age and gender, type of family and family size as well as the number of children in benefiting families. It also includes statistics on families benefiting from each of the different elements of tax credits and provides information on the income used in calculating awards.

Statistical Processing

Source data

The main source data used to create the Child and Working Tax Credits finalised annual awards statistical publication is scan1190 from the HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) tax credits administration system. Along with this, Income Support and Job Seekers Allowance claimants with a family or child premium are included. The values for the Income Support and Job Seekers Allowance claimants come from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).

Data Collection

The data in scan1190 is sourced from the HMRC tax credits administration system.

Scan1190 is a true reflection of the number of Child and Working Tax Credits claimants within a tax year. The value received by the respective claimants is also accurate as scan1190 is produced after all claimants’ incomes from that specific tax year have been finalised. Scan1190 has a time lag between the tax year it represents and the date it is produced at. This is to allow claimants to submit what their true income for the tax year required was. Once all this information is collected (a process called finalisation) the data is ready for analysis.

Data Validation

Checks carried out on the data include:

• analysts check that the number of records loaded into the analysis database is as expected
• analysts check that the number of records as we go through the code is as expected for different files created. These are compared to previous years publications
• any large changes in the number of claimants from one statistical release to the next are investigated

Quality Management

Quality Assurance

All official statistics produced by KAI, must meet the standards in the Code of Practice for Statistics produced by the United Kingdom Statistics Authority (UKSA) and all analysts adhere to best practice as set out in the ‘Quality’ pillar.

Analytical Quality Assurance describes the arrangements and procedures put in place to ensure analytical outputs are error free and fit-for-purpose. It is an essential part of KAI’s way of working as the complexity of our work and the speed at which we are asked to provide advice means there is a high risk of error which can have serious consequences on KAI’s and HMRC’s reputation, decisions, and in turn on peoples’ lives.

Every piece of analysis is unique, and as a result there is no single quality assurance (QA) checklist that contains all the QA tasks needed for every project. Nonetheless, analysts in KAI use a checklist that summarises the key QA tasks, and is used as a starting point for teams when they are considering what QA actions to undertake.

Teams amend and adapt it as they see fit, to take account of the level of risk associated with their analysis, and the different QA tasks that are relevant to the work.

At the start of a project, during the planning stage, analysts and managers make a risk-based decision on what level of QA is required.

Analysts and managers construct a plan for all the QA tasks that will need to be completed, along with documentation on how each of those tasks are to be carried out, and turn this list into a QA checklist specific to the project.

Analysts carry out the QA tasks, update the checklist, and pass onto the Senior Responsible Officer for review and eventual sign off.

Quality assessment

The QA for this project adhered to the framework described in ‘4.1 Quality assurance’ and the specific procedures undertaken were as follows:

Stage 1 – Specifying the question

• previous documentations was reviewed and outputs were agreed with the relevant stakeholders

Stage 2 – Developing a methodology

• the methodology used for the previous year’s analysis was reviewed and was agreed with my team to be appropriate for producing these statistics

Stage 3 – Building and populating a model/piece of code

• most of the analysis in this publication was carried out using SAS and Excel and are in line with good practice guidance
• data inputs were checked to ensure they were fit-for-purpose by reviewing available documentation and, where possible, through direct contact with data suppliers
• QA of the input data was carried out
• the analysis was audited by someone other than the lead analyst – checking code and methodology

Stage 4 – Running and testing the model/code

• results were compared with those produced in previous years and differences understood and determined to be genuine
• results were determined to be explainable and in line with expectations

Stage 5 – Drafting the final outputs

• checks were completed to ensure internal consistency (for example totals equal the sum of the components)
• the final outputs were independently proof read and checked.

Relevance

The finalised awards are currently published in July or August the year after the relevant tax year. This time lag is due to the time delay between the end of the tax year and the time at which people have to declare their income from 2019 to 2020. These are National Statistics and the month of publication is indicated on HMRC’s release schedule with the exact date being published at least 28 days before its release on HMRC’s statistics release calendar.

The statistics contained in this publication will be of interest for anyone that is looking for the most comprehensive data on Tax Credits and detailed geographical estimates of the average number of families benefiting from CTC and/or WTC and the average entitlement of these families in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in the tax year 2019 to 2020.

Accuracy and Reliability

The published tables are based on the 2019 to 2020 finalised awards data, which in turn is based on 100% of tax credit administrative data available for that period, and therefore are not subject to sampling error.

This publication has been produced in line with United Kingdoms Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice for producing official statistics and have also been independently checked by a step by step quality assurance process.

Revision policy

The UKSA Code of Practice for Official Statistics requires all producers of Official Statistics to publish transparent guidance on the policy for revisions. The Code of Practice was published in January 2009 and can be found on GOV.UK.

HMRC aims to avoid the need for unscheduled revisions to publications unless they are absolutely necessary and put systems and processes in place to minimise the number of revisions.

Scheduled revisions

Planned revisions take place on receipt of subsequent information that is expected. For example, when figures are originally published as “provisional” and then updated to “final.”

Administrative systems and some data collections can receive updated information following their original publication. This means that some information relating to a period already published is subsequently inputted.

These revisions are scheduled revisions and any outputs that are subject to scheduled revisions will include an explanation of how these are dealt with.

Non-scheduled revisions

Receipt of subsequent information

This type of revision refers to the receipt of data following publication, when no further publication was originally planned This type of revision can arise from events such as where information given by data suppliers missed the original publication deadline or when a data supplier gives notification that they have submitted incorrect information. In these cases, a judgement will normally be made by the Head of Profession for Statistics as to whether the change is significant enough to publish a “revised” statistical release. As these revisions are not regular occurrences, they are considered to be non-scheduled.

Errors in statistical systems and processes

Occasionally, errors will occur in our statistical processes. Precautions are taken to minimise these errors and we continually review our processes and procedures to minimise this risk. These are considered to be non-scheduled revisions and as above, a decision on whether to republish the figures is made on a case by case basis by the Head of Profession for Statistics.

Changes in source systems or statistical methodology

Where major changes to source administrative systems are pre-planned and for changes in statistical methods we will, where possible, consult with users on the changes and treat these as a change of methodology.

Handling of revisions

Our policy in handling revisions is to be transparent with users about:

• the need for revisions
• how and when to expect revisions as part of our standard processes
• the processes by which other revisions will be communicated and published.

To meet these commitments, all of our statistical publications will:

• explain the specific revisions policy for that where a revision is scheduled
• ensure that the need for major revisions for any series are pre-announced on the website
• detail how users will be informed of the need for revisions
• give explanations as to the nature and extent of revisions that were necessary

Annual Report to the National Statistician

In addition, the annual report from the Head of Profession to the National Statistician will provide information on how many publications required amendments as a result of non-scheduled revisions and explain the reasons for these.

Timeliness and punctuality

The Child and Working Tax Credits Statistics finalised annual awards was first published in 2003 and is produced with enough time to produce the analysis, carry out quality assurance and prepare the right format for publication. The release has since been published each year on the pre-announced date

Accessibility and clarity

HMRC has an increased focus on accessibility and all documents published for this release have met the Department’s accessibility requirements.

The Child and Working Tax Credit Statistics from the finalised annual awards of 2018-19 are free and accessible to users via the UK National Statistics publication hub.

Publications are available in PDF and Excel formats and can easily be downloaded by users.

The latest 2018 to 2019 statistics publication is available in HTML and Open Document Spreadsheet (ODS) formats in compliance with the new accessibility requirements.

You can also access the previous publications by visiting the HMRC’s statistics on The National Archives website.

Coherence and comparability

It is difficult to fully compare this publication with any previous releases due to the numerous policy changes affecting CWTC over the past ten years. Changes in geographical boundaries and area codes have also had an impact on time series analysis. This is especially the case for Local Authorities which have changed since the 2018 to 2019 publication.

Trade-offs between output quality components

We are committed to ensuring these statistics are as accurate as possible and to minimise revisions due to errors, as such, the data will be published in a timely manner taking into account the time needed to carry out full and robust quality assurance.

Assessment of user needs and perceptions

Users can provide feedback by contacting the relevant statistician whose details are provided in the publication.

HMRC launched a wide-ranging consultation on a range of statistics on 8 February 2021.

This includes changes to a number of tax credits statistics releases. More details are given in the consultation. This consultation has now finished. Any changes to the tax credit releases will take into account user feedback and any future changes will take into account user feedback.

A formal review of our National and Official Statistics publications was held between May and August 2011. Over 130 responses were received from a broad range of users. A report summarising the responses received has been published.

Performance, cost and respondent burden

Most of the datasets used for this analysis are taken from the tax credits administrative data and therefore the cost of carrying out this analysis is minimal. The compilation of these statistics does not impose any additional burden on employees or employers.

Confidentiality, transparency and security

All datasets used for these statistics are stored in a Controlled Access Folders (CAFs) which are accessible to only a few analysts who are part of the production team and therefore have business need to access the data.

HMRC is committed is to the efficient management of information as such our records are compliant with

• UK General Data Protection Regulation (UK GDPR) 2018
• The Data Protection Act 2018
• The Data Protection Act 1998
• The Public Records Act 1968
• The Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOI) (in particular the Code of Practice on Records Management issued under s46 FOI which requires that public authorities have effective record-keeping arrangements in place).

Under the guidelines for pre-release access, information contained in the tables is not given out in final form one day before publication and then only to nominated officials and ministers whose names are published on the HMRC website.

To avoid the possible disclosure of information about individual families, values have been supressed when underlying sample counts are low. An entry of “-’’ in a table indicates that the data has been rounded down to 0 or has been withheld in line with HMRC’s Dominance and Disclosure policy.