Accredited official statistics

Child and Working Tax Credits statistics: finalised annual awards, supplement on payments, quality report - 2020 to 2021

Updated 22 November 2022

Introduction

Tax credits were introduced in April 2003 replacing Working Families’ Tax Credit, Disabled Person’s Tax Credit and Children’s Tax Credit. They are an important part of the Government’s policy aims to provide adequate financial incentives to work, reduce child poverty and to increase financial support for all families.

WTC provides in-work support for people on low incomes, with or without children. It is available for in-work support to people who are aged at least 16 and meet a certain criteria.

CTC provides income-related support for children and qualifying young people aged 16 to 19 who are in full time, non-advanced education or approved training into a single tax credit, payable to the main carer. Families can claim CTC whether or not the adults are in work.

More information about tax credits eligibility can be found on GOV.UK.

Statistical presentation

The Child and Working Tax Credit statistics on the supplement on payments from the finalised annual awards of 2020 to 2021 consists of a series of tables showing whether people were overpaid, underpaid or paid the entitled amount of Child and Working Tax Credits, based upon what we now know about any changes in their circumstances in 2020 to 2021.

These tables show a time series of payments (overpaid, underpaid or paid the entitled amount) as well as a breakdown of type of tax credits overpaid or underpaid. A breakdown is also shown by whether the recipients of the payments were single or in a couple.

Statistical Processing

Source data

The main source data used to create the Child and Working Tax Credits finalised annual awards statistical publication is scan1189 HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) tax credits administration system.

Data collection

The data in scan1189 is sourced from HMRC’s tax credits administration system.

Scan1189 holds information on the number of Child and Working Tax Credits claimants and whether they were overpaid, underpaid or paid the entitled amount of tax credits within a specific tax year. Scan1189 has a time lag between the tax year it represents and the date it is produced at. This is to allow claimants to submit what their true income for the tax year in question.

Once all this information is collected (a process called finalisation) the data is ready for analysis and we can see the difference between the amount of tax credits claimants were paid (based on an estimate of income) and the amount of tax credits they should have been paid (based on actual income reported).

Data validation

Checks carried out on the data include:

• analysts check that the number of records loaded into the analysis database is as expected

• analysts check that the number of records as we go through the code is as expected for different files created. These are compared to previous years publications

• any large changes in the number of claimants from one statistical release to the next are investigated

Quality management

Quality Assurance

All official statistics produced by KAI, must meet the standards in the Code of Practice for Statistics produced by the UK Statistics Authority and all analysts adhere to best practice as set out in the ‘Quality’ pillar.

Analytical Quality Assurance describes the arrangements and procedures put in place to ensure analytical outputs are error free and fit-for-purpose. It is an essential part of KAI’s way of working as the complexity of our work and the speed at which we are asked to provide advice means there is a high risk of error which can have serious consequences on KAI’s and HMRC’s reputation, decisions, and in turn on peoples’ lives.

Every piece of analysis is unique, and as a result there is no single quality assurance (QA) checklist that contains all the QA tasks needed for every project. Nonetheless, analysts in KAI use a checklist that summarises the key QA tasks, and is used as a starting point for teams when they are considering what QA actions to undertake.

Teams amend and adapt it as they see fit, to take account of the level of risk associated with their analysis, and the different QA tasks that are relevant to the work.

At the start of a project, during the planning stage, analysts and managers make a risk-based decision on what level of QA is required.

Analysts and managers construct a plan for all the QA tasks that will need to be completed, along with documentation on how each of those tasks are to be carried out and turn this list into a QA checklist specific to the project.

Analysts carry out the QA tasks, update the checklist, and pass onto the Senior Responsible Officer for review and eventual sign off.

Quality assessment

The QA for this project adhered to the framework described in ‘Quality assurance’ and the specific procedures undertaken were as follows:

Stage 1 – Specifying the question

• previous documentation was reviewed and outputs were agreed with the relevant stakeholders

Stage 2 – Developing a methodology

• the methodology used for the previous year’s analysis was reviewed and was agreed with my team to be appropriate for producing these statistics

Stage 3 – Building and populating a model and/or piece of code

• most of the analysis in this publication was carried out using Excel and R Studio and are in line with good practice guidance. Reproducible Analytical Pipelines (RAPs) have been used for production of these statistics

• data inputs were checked to ensure they were fit-for-purpose by reviewing available documentation and, where possible, through direct contact with data suppliers

• QA of the input data was carried out

• the analysis was audited by someone other than the lead analyst – checking code and methodology

Stage 4 – Running and testing the model and/or code

• results were compared with those produced in previous years and differences understood and determined to be genuine

• results were determined to be explainable and in line with expectations

Stage 5 – Drafting the final outputs

• checks were completed to ensure internal consistency (for example, totals equal the sum of the components)

• the final outputs were independently proofread and checked

Relevance

These annual statistics provide a breakdown of whether tax credits recipients were overpaid, underpaid or paid the correct amount of tax credits in the year 2020 to 2021. These are National Statistics and the month of publication is indicated on HMRC’s release schedule with the exact date being published at least 28 days before its release on HMRC’s statistics release calendar.

The statistics contained in this publication will be of interest for anyone that is looking for the most comprehensive data on Tax Credits and estimates of the number of people receiving overpayments, underpayments or the correct amount of different types of tax credits.

Accuracy and Reliability

The published tables are based on the 2020 to 2021 finalised awards data, which in turn is based on 100% of tax credit administrative data available for that period, and therefore are not subject to sampling error.

This publication has been produced in line with UK Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice for producing official statistics and have also been independently checked by a step by step quality assurance process.

Timeliness and punctuality

The supplement on payments finalised awards statistics are produced annually with enough time to produce the analysis, carry out quality assurance and prepare the right format for publication. The release has since been published each year on the pre-announced date.

Accessibility and clarity

HMRC has an increased focus on accessibility and all documents published for this release have met the Department’s accessibility requirements.

Publications are available in PDF and Excel formats and can easily be downloaded by users. The latest 2020 to 2021 statistics publication is available in HTML and Open Document Spreadsheet (ODS) formats in compliance with the new accessibility requirements.

You can also access the previous publications by visiting the HMRC’s statistics on The National Archives website.

Coherence and comparability

The data for these statistics were derived from the same data source that was used to produce the Child and Working Tax Credits Finalised annual awards 2020 to 2021, published in July 2022.

It is difficult to fully compare this publication with any previous releases due to the numerous policy changes affecting Child and Working Tax Credits over the past ten years. Changes in geographical boundaries and area codes have also had an impact on time series analysis.

Trade-offs between output quality components

We are committed to ensuring these statistics are as accurate as possible and to minimise revisions due to errors, as such, the data will be published in a timely manner taking into account the time needed to carry out full and robust quality assurance.

Assessment of user needs and perceptions

Users can provide feedback by contacting the relevant statistician whose details are provided in the publication.

HMRC launched a wide-ranging consultation on a range of statistics on 8 February 2021. This included changes to a number of tax credits statistics releases. A response to the consultation on a range of statistics can be found on GOV.UK.

A formal review of our National and Official Statistics publications was held between May and August 2011. Over 130 responses were received from a broad range of users. A report summarising the responses received has been published.

Performance, cost and respondent burden

Most of the datasets used for this analysis are taken from the tax credits administrative data and therefore the cost of carrying out this analysis is minimal. The compilation of these statistics does not impose any additional burden on employees or employers.

Confidentiality, transparency and security

All datasets used for these statistics are stored in a Controlled Access Folders (CAFs) which are accessible to only a few analysts who are part of the production team and therefore have business need to access the data.

HMRC is committed is to the efficient management of information as such our records are compliant with:

• UK General Data Protection Regulation (UK GDPR) 2018

• The Data Protection Act 2018

• The Data Protection Act 1998

• The Public Records Act 1968

• The Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOI) (in particular the Code of Practice on Records Management issued under s46 FOI which requires that public authorities have effective record-keeping arrangements in place)

Under the guidelines for pre-release access, information contained in the tables is not given out in final form one day before publication and then only to nominated officials and ministers whose names are published on the HMRC website