Official Statistics

Background and methodology: Cold Weather Payment estimates

Updated 8 April 2020

Applies to England, Scotland and Wales

1. Description of the Cold Weather Payments scheme

The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments scheme provides help to individuals on benefits who are the most vulnerable to the cold:

• older people in receipt of Pension Credit.
• disabled adults, families with a disabled child or families with a child under 5, who are in receipt of Universal Credit or one of the following legacy benefits:
• income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance
• income-related Employment and Support Allowance
• Income Support.

The scheme runs from 1 November to 31 March each year. This period is referred to as the Cold Weather Payment (CWP) season. During this period, the daily average temperatures are measured by the Met Office at a network of 95 weather stations across Great Britain. Each residential postcode area in the country is linked to one of these weather stations. A payment of £25 is automatically made to those eligible in the coverage area of each weather station when the average temperature has been recorded as, or is forecast to be, 0 degrees Celsius or below over seven consecutive days.

2. How Cold Weather Payments are determined

1. The Cold Weather Payment scheme is the responsibility of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), supported by the Met Office.

2. The scheme links postcode districts to weather stations that report to the Met Office on a daily basis. The Met Office takes account of topography, the extent of built-up areas and the distance from available weather stations. Each postcode district is assigned to a weather station with the most similar climate in terms of 1981-2010 average winter temperature.

3. The final postcode listings are agreed by DWP and this postcode to weather station mapping will be used throughout the Cold Weather Payment season and will not be reviewed further until the following year.

4. Every day, throughout the Cold Weather Payment season, the Met Office records the average daily temperature from each of the 95 Weather Stations. The Met Office then uses the daily averages from the previous 7 days to produce a single 7 day average covering the last 7 days. They also forecast what the 7 day average will be over the next 7 days.

5. DWP uses this information to determine whether any weather stations have “triggered” for a Cold Weather Payment. This will be the case if the recorded or forecasted 7 day average temperature is 0oC or below and there are no overlapping periods for which a Cold Weather Payment has already been made.

6. In a case of a trigger, information on the location of that trigger is entered into the relevant benefit systems. A payment of £25 will be automatically issued to any eligible person living in the area covered by that weather station. The recipient should receive the payment within 14 days.

3. What this statistical release provides

This statistical release provides estimates of the numbers of individuals eligible for Cold Weather Payments in Great Britain in 2019-20 as well as weekly updates on the number of triggers for Cold Weather Payments throughout the season.

These estimates are based on eligible individuals in receipt of Pension Credit, income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance, income-related Employment and Support Allowance, Income Support and Universal Credit. The main spreadsheet accompanying this document (CWP Estimates – 2019-20 Main) contains the following tables:

• Table 1: Cold Weather Payment estimates in Great Britain since 1 November 2019 – Estimates of the number of eligible recipients and payments made for Cold Weather Payments, at the start of the season, split by country and receipt of Pension Credit. Number of triggers, also split by country, since 1 November 2019 to date.
• Table 2: Weekly and Monthly Cold Weather Payment estimates made in Great Britain since 1 November 2019 – Estimates of the number of eligible recipients, split by month and week that payments were triggered.
• Table 3: Cold Weather Payment estimates by Weather Station since 1 November 2019 – Estimates of the number of eligible recipients in each weather station area, and the number of triggers in each.

This spreadsheet will be updated on a weekly basis throughout the 2019-20 Cold Weather Payment season. The first publication will be on the 4 December 2019 and the last on 8 April 2020, with a two week break over Christmas and the New Year. A full timetable for the release is given in Table 2 of the main spreadsheet.

The spreadsheet also accompanying this document (Weather Stations and Postcodes) provides details of the weather stations used in 2019-20 and their coverage areas.

4. How these estimates are calculated

DWP does not collect regular information on the exact number of Cold Weather Payments made throughout the winter due to the time and cost that would be involved in tracking this. We instead report on triggers and an estimate of the number of eligible recipients made at the start of the season. This information can be used to calculate weekly estimates of the number of Cold Weather Payments made.

4.1 Estimation of Eligible Recipients

A count of the number of recipients^{[footnote 1]} eligible for Cold Weather Payments in receipt of one of the qualifying benefits JSA, ESA, Income Support or Pension Credit was made on the 30th October 2019. These figures were produced by weather station area and qualifying benefit.

In addition, an estimate of the number of Universal Credit claimants, that are eligible for CWP at the beginning of the cold weather season, was calculated and included in these reports. This was done for the first time last year, and improves on the 2017/18 reports, which did not capture eligible recipients on Universal credit prior to cold weather season, or recipients on Universal Credit who were not previously entitled under legacy. The approach detailed below, for the 2019/20 reports, accounts for the cases previously excluded, to give a more accurate estimate. Individuals starting a UC claim in the Cold Weather period, who would have previously qualified through legacy benefits, continue to be included as in previous reports.

These estimates were created by using the latest available snapshot of Universal Credit claimants at the end of August 2019. To get an estimated snapshot as at end of October 2019, in line with legacy benefit claimants, an adjustment was applied. This adjustment was based on the estimated increase in claimants from August 2019 to October 2019 in the experimental statistics.

Each eligible Universal Credit household is counted as an eligible recipient, as a CWP is made once per household. The adjustment for August 2019 to October 2019 is based on the number of individual claimants. Therefore, it is assumed the increase in individuals and households, on Universal Credit, is the same. Note: of the information held on each household, around 1% is not based on the latest month’s information, but instead uses the latest available.

These estimates of Universal Credit claimants, eligible for CWP, were produced by weather station based on the claimant’s postcode area.

The figures exclude a small number of claimants who solely meet the Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) Loan eligibility criteria for Cold Weather Payments. This is not expected to have a material impact on the overall accuracy of our estimates.

4.2 Estimation of Payments and Expenditure

The eligible recipient figures remain unchanged throughout the season, and can be used to estimate payment volumes and expenditure based on reported triggers in each weather station area. This was previously included in these reports, but following a consultation in 2018 it was agreed to remove the estimates of volumes and expenditure. Estimates can be calculated based on the figures provided.

• The number of payments made in Great Britain is provided (see Table 1).
• The number of payments in a given weather station area can be estimated by multiplying the number of estimated eligible recipients in that area by the number of triggers recorded in that area (see Table 3).
• As the award amount is fixed at £25, the amount of expenditure on Cold Weather Payments can be estimated as the number of estimated payments multiplied by £25.

4.3 Estimation of figures for England, Scotland and Wales

The estimates of the numbers of eligible CWP recipients in 2019/20 are produced as totals for each weather station area. There are a number of weather station areas that cross the England/Scotland or England/Wales borders. We do not know the exact country of residence of Cold Weather Payment recipients in these weather station areas.

The number of recipients in each country has therefore been estimated using the postcode information for those on CWP-eligible benefits in October 2019 from the DWP National Benefits Database to determine the proportion of benefit claimants in each country in these weather station areas.

4.4 Triggers

The information about the number and location triggers given in the estimates is exact.

5. Comparison of estimates and actuals

Exact figures on the amount paid out in each financial year are available in the Social Fund White Paper Accounts and DWP budget information published after the end of the financial year.

Table 1 shows the estimated Cold Weather Payment expenditure reported during the season and the actual expenditure reported in the Social Fund White Paper Accounts between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

5.1 Table 1: Cold Weather Payment Expenditure estimated and actual, 2012-13 to 2017-18^{[footnote 2]}

Year	Estimated Expenditure	Actual Expenditure	Difference
2012-13	£146.1m	£141.7m	£4.4m
2013-14	£0.03m	£8.4m	-£8.4m
2014-15	£10.6m	£11.0m	-£0.4m
2015-16	£3.9m	£3.9m	£0.0m
2016-17	£3.3m	£3.1m	£0.2m
2017-18	£118.7m	£114.3m	£4.4m

6. Further Information

6.1 Cold Weather Payment Scheme

Read about Cold Weather Payment – what you’ll get, eligibility and how to find out if your area is due a payment.

The Cold Weather Payment scheme runs from 1 November 2019 to 31 March 2020. Check if you can get a payment in your area.

6.2 Cold Weather Payment estimates

Read the Cold Weather Payment estimates for previous years.

These figures and further detail about the Cold Weather Payment scheme are also available in the Social Fund annual report 2017 to 2018.

The Social Fund Accounts provide information on total actual expenditure on Cold Weather Payments each year.

A time series of past expenditure on Cold Weather Payments from 1987-88 to 2017-18 and forecasts up to 2023-24 are available in the DWP benefit expenditure and caseload tables.

The Cold Weather Payment Estimates published by the DWP were assessed by the UK Statistics Authority in Summer/Autumn 2015. Read a copy of the Assessment Report published by the UK Statistics Authority on 26 November 2015.

7. Winter Fuel Payments

Cold Weather Payments provide support to vulnerable individuals in periods of extreme cold weather. They are not the same as Winter Fuel Payments which provide a one-off lump sum paid each winter to help older people with the costs of heating their homes. Winter Fuel Payments are administered and reported separately of the Cold Weather Payment scheme.

Read information on Winter Fuel Payments – claim form, how much you get and eligibility.

Winter Fuel Payments statistics are published annually by DWP.

8. Contact information

Tell your pension centre or Jobcentre Plus office if you think you should have received a Cold Weather Payment but you have not.

If you are getting Universal Credit, contacyt the helpline instead

Universal Credit helpline
Telephone: 0345 600 0723
Textphone: 0345 600 0743

Find out about call charges

If you have any comments, questions or suggestions regarding these Cold Weather Payment publications, or queries regarding the Cold Weather Payment scheme more generally, please contact the DWP Social Fund policy team

1. The number of eligible recipients is not necessarily the total number of individuals benefitting from a Cold Weather Payment. Any individuals making a joint claim for one of the qualifying benefits, such as a couple living together, will receive one payment overall rather than one each. ↩

2. In Table 1 the larger discrepancies between estimated and actual expenditure in 2012-13 and 2013-14 are due to differences in the timings used to record the payments. The estimated figures are produced based on the date the payments are triggered whilst the exact expenditure is based on when the payment was made. These dates can differ by up to 14 days. If triggers are reported in late March, this means the payments may not be made until the following financial year. In 2013-14, only one trigger was recorded between 1 November 2013 and 31 March 2014, resulting in estimated expenditure of £0.03m. The £8m expenditure recorded as the actual figure relates to triggers that were recorded in late March 2013 but not paid until April 2013. ↩