Accredited official statistics

English Housing Survey 2022 to 2023: future homeowners – fact sheet

Published 18 July 2024

Applies to England

This fact sheet examines the expectations and prospects of future homeowning for households in the social and private rented sectors. It explores renters’ buying expectations, whether these are short or long term, barriers that affect home ownership and how these vary by demographic and economic characteristic of households.

1.  General expectation to buy

In 2022-23, approximately 3.6 million renting households expected to buy a home at some point in the future. This represents 43% of the total 8.4 million renting households, Annex Table 1.1.

Over half (59%) of private renters expected to buy at some point in the future. Among social renters, one-quarter (25%) expected to buy.

Private renters were more likely to expect to buy than social renters.

2. Who expects to buy?

The expectation of buying a home in the future varied across demographics. Groups more likely to expect to buy included younger renters, part or full-time workers and households with dependent children.

Gender

In 2022-23, men who were renting their home were more likely to expect to buy a home (47%) than women (39%), Annex Table 1.2.

This disparity was mainly driven by differences between men and women in the private rented sector where 64% of men expected to buy a home compared with 54% of women. Men and women in the social rented sector had similar buying expectations (25% and 26%, respectively).

Age

Older renters were less likely than younger renters to expect to buy. This was true for both social and private renters.

Among social renters, the expectation to buy a home in the future generally decreased with age. Over half (52%) of those aged 16-24 expected to buy a home at some point in the future, dropping to 20% of those aged 45-64 and two percent of those aged 75 and over, Annex Table 1.2.

There was a similar pattern among private renters. Over three-quarters (77%) of those aged 16 to 24 expected to buy, dropping to 64% of those aged 35-44 and 6% of those aged 75 or over.

Ethnicity

White household reference persons (HRPs) in both the social and private rented sectors were less likely to expect to buy than those from an Asian or black ethnic background. Of all renters, 39% of white HRPs expected to buy. In comparison, 59% of HRPs from an Asian ethnic background and 65% of those from a black ethnic background expected to buy. It should be noted that this finding is likely influenced by age due to the overall younger age demographic of rented households from an Asian or black ethnic background than those from a white ethnic background.

Economic status

Households where the HRP was working (either part or full-time) were the most likely to expect to buy a home, though this differed across the rented sectors. Private renters with a HRP in work were more likely to expect to buy (67%) than social renters with a HRP in work (44%).

Renters in work were more likely to expect to buy than those not in work, and employed private renters were still more likely to expect to buy than employed social renters.

Of all renters, 32% of those unemployed and 18% of those who were inactive (retired, in full-time education or other inactive) expected to buy.

Dependent children

Households with dependent children were more likely to expect to buy a home (54%) than households with no dependent children (38%).

We see the largest disparity for those in the social rented sector. Of all households with dependent children in the social rented sector, 46% expected to buy compared to 16% of households without dependent children. In the private rented sector, there was no significant difference in the proportion expecting to buy between those with or without dependent children (62% and 58%, respectively).

3. Expectation to buy inside/outside London

Half (50%) of renters in London expected to buy at some point in the future, compared with 41% of households living elsewhere in England, Annex Table 1.3.

Renting households in London were more likely to expect to buy a home than households elsewhere in England.

Regional differences were driven primarily by households in the private rented sector. Social renters in London were no more likely to expect to buy than those outside of London (28% and 25%, respectively), whereas 65% of private renters in London expected to buy compared to 57% outside of London.

4. Long term/short term expectations

Renters who expected to buy a home were also asked how long they thought it would be before they did so. Of all renters who expected to buy, 26% said they expected to do so in the short-term (within two years), Annex Table 1.4.

The proportion expecting to buy in the short-term varied between social and private renters. Among private renters who expected to buy, 29% expected to buy within the next two years. Among social renters who expected to buy, 17% expected to buy within the next two years.

Of renting households expecting to buy, private renters were more likely to expect to buy in the short term than social renters.

This means that the remaining 71% of private renters expected to buy in the long term (more than two years), along with 83% of social renters.

Social renters were more likely to expect to buy in the long term than private renters.

The EHS also asks respondents about the tenure they expect to live in, in the longer term. This question was asked of people in all tenures and included a range of options.

Private renters were the least likely to expect to remain in the same tenure in the long term compared to social renters and owner occupiers. Overall, fewer than one-third (30%) of private renters expected to remain in the private rented sector, and more than half (52%) expected to own their home.

On the other hand, social renters were very likely to expect to remain in their current tenure. Overall, three-quarters (75%) of social renters expected to continue to rent in the social rented sector in the long term. Local authority and housing association tenants were both as likely to expect to remain in the social rented sector (76% and 74%, respectively). However, local authority tenants were more likely to expect to remain a local authority tenant (70%) than housing association tenants expect to remain a housing association tenant (59%), Annex Table 1.5.

Owner occupiers were the most likely to expect to remain in their current tenure in the longer term, with most (93%) expecting to continue to own their home.

5. Deposits

Of all renters expecting to buy, 27% expected to have help from family and/or friends toward their deposit.

Over a quarter of renters expected to have help from family and/or friends toward their deposit.

Private renters who expected to buy were more likely to expect to say they will have help from family and/or friends (29%) than social renters who expected to buy (24%), Annex Table 1.6.

Nearly nine in ten (87%) recent first-time buyers (resident for less than 3 years) used savings as one of the sources of their deposit and 36% said they had a gift or loan from family or friends. See Headline Report Chapter 2, Annex Table 2.1.

6. Income of those expecting to buy

Not surprisingly, households expecting to buy a home tended to have a higher income than those who did not expect to buy.

The impact of income on buying expectations differed across the social and private sectors, with private renters more likely to expect to buy a home across the income spectrum. Among private renters, 75% of households in the highest income quintile expected to buy a home while 50% of social renters in the same quintile expected to buy. In the lowest income quintile, 39% of private renters expected to buy, compared to 16% of social renters, Annex Table 1.7. 

More private renters in the highest income quintile expected to buy than social renters in the highest income quintile. This was the same for those in the lowest income quintile.

However, analysis of the impact of income on buying expectations may be confounded by factors such as household type, and characteristics such as economic status and age.

7. Reasons for not expecting to buy

Renters who did not expect to buy a home in the future were asked why this was the case. They could provide more than one answer to this question.

Overall, the most common reason among all renters for not expecting to buy was perceived affordability, with three-quarters (75%) of renters saying they would not be able to afford it, Annex Table 1.8.

The most common reason among all renters for not expecting to buy was perceived affordability.

Fourteen percent said they did not have a sufficiently secure job, and 13% said they would not like to be in debt. In addition, 12% felt repairs and maintenance would be too costly.

Groups more likely to state affordability as a concern included households with female HRPs, those in the middle age groups, those from a black ethnic background, those who were unemployed and households with dependent children.

Some ‘positive’ reasons were also given for not expecting to buy. In 2022-23, 10% said they preferred the flexibility of renting, 19% said ‘I like it where I am’ (the second most common reason overall) and 11% said they would not like the commitment of buying.

Gender

Women were more likely to state financial barriers/reasons for not expecting to buy than men. For example, 77% of women said they would be unlikely to afford it and 15% said they do not have a secure enough job, compared to 72% and 12% of men, respectively. Compared to men, women were also more likely to say repairs and maintenance would be too costly (15% vs. 9%) and they wouldn’t want to be in debt (14% vs. 12%), Annex Table 1.9.

However, there were no gender differences regarding non-financial barriers to expecting to buy, except for men being more likely to say they like it where they were (21%) than women (17%).

Age

HRPs in the youngest and oldest age groups were less likely to have concerns over affordability. Approximately two-thirds of 16–24-year-olds (67%) and six in ten (60%) of those aged 75 or over said they would be unlikely to afford to buy compared to 79% and 80% of 35–44-year-olds and 45–64-year-olds, respectively.

Those aged 75 or over were generally more likely to say they didn’t expect to buy because they like it where they are. One-third (33%) of those aged 75 or over provided this reason compared to 7% of those aged between 16 and 24.

Ethnicity

Those from a black ethnic background were most likely to have concerns over affordability. Overall, 85% of those from a black ethnic background stated they would be unlikely to afford to buy as a response compared to 74% from a white ethnic background and 67% from an Asian ethnic background.

Looking at non-financial reasons, those from a white ethnic background were generally more likely to state they prefer the flexibility of renting (11%) and like it where they are (21%) than those from other ethnic backgrounds.

Economic status

Unsurprisingly, those in employment were less likely to state concerns over affordability as a barrier to homeownership (72%) than those who were unemployed (89%). There was no difference between those in employment and those who were inactive (retired, in full-time education or other inactive). However, inactive HRPs were more likely to say they would not want the commitment (14%) than those in work (8%).

Dependent children

Households with dependent children were more likely to say they would be unlikely to afford it (84%) than those without dependent children (71%). There were no other differences relating to financial concerns. However, households without dependent children were more likely to say they like it where they are (22%) than those with dependent children (11%).