Accredited official statistics

Forecasts of Farm Business Income by farm type, England 2024/25

Updated 11 March 2025

Applies to England

Forecasts of Farm Business Income by type of farm, England, 2024/25

This statistical release provides forecasts of Farm Business Income (total output generated by the farm business minus total farm costs) for 2023/24 alongside results from recent years (Table 1.1). Data on farm business incomes are used to monitor and evaluate Government policies and to inform wider research into the economic performance, productivity and competitiveness of the agricultural industry. The data are also widely used by the industry for benchmarking.

These figures are for March/February years with the latest estimates covering the 2024 harvest and including the 2024 delinked Basic Payment Scheme (which is included within the total farm output and therefore contributes to Farm Business Income). Actual survey results for this period will be published in November 2025.

The forecasts for 2024/25 are derived from information available in early February 2024 for prices, livestock populations, marketings, crop areas, yields and input costs. They are intended as a broad indication of how incomes for each farm type are expected to move compared with 2023/24. For longer term trends see the Farm Business Income timeseries.

The forecasts are subject to a margin of error, reflecting, in particular, the fact that farm income is derived as the relatively small difference between total output and total input; small percentage changes in either of these can result in large percentage changes in income.

It should also be noted that within each year there is a wide range in income across farms around the average figures published here.

Key results

• Average Farm Business Income (FBI) is forecast to have risen in 2024/25 across all farm types with the exception of cereal farms. This follows a fall in income for most farm types in 2023/24, after some exceptional highs in the two preceding years.

• Reductions in the cost of inputs, such as fertiliser and animal feed, are expected to be a major contributing factor for the forecast rise in average FBI. For livestock farms, firm output prices are also predicted to have a positive impact on overall FBI.

• On cereal farms, a combination of challenging weather conditions and lower output prices are forecast to result in a substantial drop in output from crops (most notably wheat) and FBI is expected to fall by nearly a third to £27,000. For general cropping farms, lower output from cereals enterprises is forecast to be partially offset by increases for other crops, such as sugar beet and potatoes. This, along with lower inputs costs, is expected to result in a 13% rise in FBI to £108,000.

• On dairy farms, average FBI is forecast to more than double compared to 2023/24 to £176,000, with a recovery in the farmgate milk price expected to be the primary driver.

• For grazing livestock farms, both lowland and in Less Favoured Areas (LFAs), higher output from sheep enterprises and reduced feed costs will be some of the drivers increasing FBI to £28,000. For lowland farms, higher income from agri-environment activities is also predicted to be a key factor.

• Lower costs, particularly feed, (reflecting the lower value of feed wheat and barley) are forecast to be one of the main drivers increasing FBI by around 14% for specialist pig farms to £155,000.

• No income forecasts have been produced for specialist poultry or horticulture farms as forecasts would be subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty, reflecting both the structure of this sector and the relatively small sample of these farms in the Farm Business Survey.

• The 2024 delinked Basic Payment is expected to fall by a quarter at the all farm level, reflecting the fourth year of progressive reductions to the payment. Although variation between farm types is forecast, at the all farm level income from agri-environment payments are predicted to rise by more than three quarters to around £23,000.

Points which apply throughout

1. The Farm Business Survey is the source for all data presented in tables and figures unless otherwise stated.

2. All figures relate to England, unless otherwise stated and, on average, cover a March to February fiscal year, with the most recent year shown ending in February 2024/25. Fiscal years are shown in YYYY/YY format, for example, the period of 2024 is shown as 2024/25. To ensure consistency in harvest/crop year and commonality of subsidies within any one Farm Business Survey year, only farms which have accounting years ending between 31 December and 30 April are included in the survey. Aggregate results are presented in terms of an accounting year ending on the last day of February, which is the approximate average of all farms in the Farm Business Survey.

3. All financial figures have been rounded to the nearest £100 except forecasts which are rounded to the nearest £1,000. All percentages have been rounded to the nearest 1% and have been calculated using the unrounded data.

4. The acronym ‘LFA’ refers to Less Favoured Area. These areas were established in 1975 to provide support to mountainous and hill farming areas. They are areas where the natural characteristics (geology, altitude, climate, short growing season, low soil fertility, or remoteness) make it difficult for farmers to compete.

5. The forecasts reflect the fourth year of progressive reductions to the Basic Payment. From 2024, the Basic Payment Scheme was also delinked from land.

6. Historically the forecasts have only considered changes to agri-environment payments. However, for 2024/25, to reflect the growing importance and increasing scale agri-environment activities, an estimation for associated costs has been incorporated. These are included in the forecasts for all farm types.

1 Farm Business Income by farm type

Figure 1.1 Average Farm Business Income (£ per farm) by farm type, England 2023/24 and 2024/25 forecast

Figure note:

1. The legend is presented in the same order as the bars.
2. 2024/25 values are shown here with 95% confidence intervals, which give an indication of the degree of uncertainty around an estimate; the lower and upper limits show the possible range around the published averages.

Table 1.1 Average Farm Business Income per farm at current prices (£/farm)

Farm Type	2021/22	2022/23 (note 3)	2022/23 (note 4)	2023/24	2024/25 forecast	% Change from 2023/24 to 2024/25
Cereals	120,100	150,400	146,400	39,400	27,000	-32%
General cropping	145,400	125,200	126,000	95,300	108,000	13%
Dairy	140,200	229,200	224,400	70,900	176,000	148%
Grazing livestock (Lowland)	34,000	21,600	22,800	17,300	28,000	61%
Grazing livestock (LFA)	42,900	25,400	26,800	23,500	28,000	18%
Specialist pigs	11,800	67,900	72,500	135,800	155,000	14%
Mixed	74,000	68,000	68,900	22,700	30,000	34%

Table notes:

1. Data for forecast year rounded to the nearest thousand.
2. The percentages shown are calculated against the unrounded figures and are rounded to the nearest 1%.
3. Farm typology based on 2013 Standard Output coefficients (see Section 3.2).
4. Farm typology based on 2017 Standard Output coefficients (see Section 3.2).
5. Years ending at end of February.

1.2 Average Farm Business Income per farm in real terms at 2024/25 prices (£/farm)

Farm Type	2021/22	2022/23 (note 3)	2022/23 (note 4)	2023/24	2024/25 forecast	% Change from 2023/24 to 2024/25
Cereals	140,200	166,500	162,100	40,700	27,000	-34%
General cropping	169,800	138,600	139,600	98,500	108,000	10%
Dairy	163,800	253,800	248,400	73,300	176,000	140%
Grazing livestock (Lowland)	39,700	23,900	25,200	17,900	28,000	56%
Grazing livestock (LFA)	50,100	28,200	29,700	24,300	28,000	14%
Specialist pigs	13,700	75,100	80,300	140,300	155,000	11%
Mixed	86,400	75,300	76,300	23,400	30,000	30%

Table notes:

1. Data for forecast year rounded to the nearest thousand.
2. The percentages shown are calculated against the unrounded figures and are rounded to the nearest 1%.
3. Farm typology based on 2013 Standard Output coefficients (see Section 3.2).
4. Farm typology based on 2017 Standard Output coefficients (see Section 3.2).
5. Years ending at end of February.
6. Real terms prices use the latest GDP deflator data, published 23 December 2024 at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybgb/ukea.

1.1 Cereal Farms

Average Farm Business Income on cereal farms is forecast to fall by just under a third in 2024/25 to £27,000 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). A fall in input costs is expected to be more than offset by a larger decrease in output from crop enterprises. Challenging weather, including wet autumn drilling conditions and a cool, wet harvest impacted both yields and planted areas. For wheat, output is forecast to be around a quarter lower than 2023/24, with smaller crop areas and yields compounded by lower prices, the result of plentiful global supplies. Output from oilseed rape is also predicted to fall despite prices remaining firm, driven by reduced yield and area. Overall, crop output is forecast to be around 18% lower than 2023/24. A 5% fall in input costs will be largely driven by substantially lower fertiliser costs, reflecting both lower prices, and, for some crops, a smaller planted area. The delinked Basic Payment is forecast to fall by a quarter, while income from the agri-environment cost centre is predicted to more than double compared to 2023/24 to around £35,000.

1.2 General Cropping Farms

On general cropping farms, average Farm Business Income is expected to increase by 13% to £108,000 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). Lower input costs are forecast to be a key driver with a notable fall in fertiliser costs (following the rise due to the war in Ukraine) a major influencing factor. Decreases in output of 20% from cereals and 24% from oilseed rape are expected to be partially offset by increases for other crop enterprises, such as potatoes and sugar beet. Despite weather challenges, firm prices and slightly increased planted areas for both these crops are expected to result in higher output. Overall, these factors combined are forecast to result in a 3% decrease in crop output. For the Basic Payment, a similar picture is expected to cereal farms with a decrease of 25%. Net income from agri-environment payments is forecast to rise by 81% to £27,000 in 2024/25.

1.3 Dairy Farms

Average Farm Business Income (FBI) is forecast to be around £176,000 on dairy farms compared to £70,900 in 2023/24 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). At a UK level, the average farm gate milk price rose by around 12% in the period March 2024 to January 2025 compared to the previous year, Defra statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/milk-prices-and-composition. The recovery of milk prices, supported by tight supplies in the early part of the year, is expected to increase output from milk by 12% and be a key driver raising FBI for dairy farms. It is important to note the wide variation in milk prices with some farmers receiving considerably more or less than the average. Output from other cattle enterprises is also expected to be higher and this, along with the increase in output from milk, is predicted to more than compensate for a fall in crop output (most notably wheat) of 19%. Input costs are expected to fall by around 2%, primarily driven by reduced feed costs (reflecting lower cereal prices) and lower fertiliser costs. Agri-environment income is forecast to rise by around 47% compared to 2023/24 and the delinked Basic Payment fall by nearly a quarter.

1.4 Lowland Grazing Livestock Farms

In 2024/25, average Farm Business Income for lowland grazing livestock farms is predicted to rise by 65% to £28,000 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). The main driver is expected to be a substantial increase in agri-environment income, this is forecast to more than double from the 2023/24 level to around £23,000 in 2024/25. Sheep output is also expected to be higher with lamb prices (both fat and store) consistently up on the year, including some record highs. However, the higher prices, will be tempered to some extent by a smaller lamb crop in 2024, reflecting challenging weather conditions at lambing and a contraction of the breeding flock. Output from beef cattle enterprises, which tend to make the biggest contribution to livestock output on this type of farm, is expected to increase very slightly (1%). Crop output is forecast to be 7% lower. It is predicted that decreases for crop related costs of 23% will offset smaller rises across a range of inputs, meaning that overall input costs will remain unchanged compared to 2023/24.

1.5 Less Favoured Area (LFA) Grazing Livestock Farms

At £28,000, average Farm Business Income on LFA grazing livestock farms is forecast to be 18% higher than 2023/24 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). In addition to record lamb prices, higher average prices for breeding ewes and hoggs, an important source of income on these farms, are expected to have a positive impact on sheep output, which will rise by around 13%. This will more than offset a fall of 4% in output from cattle enterprises; whilst prices for finished and store cattle remained firm, for stores throughput per farm is forecast to be lower. As with lowland farms, costs are predicted to fall with the largest savings likely to be feed and crop related costs. Average income from the agri-environment cost centre, which represent a major source of revenue on these farms, is forecast to increase by 15% and the Basic Payment fall by around a quarter.

1.6 Specialist pig farms

The Farm Business Survey (FBS) sample for specialist pig farms is relatively small, meaning that individual farms can have a large influence on the results and the results should be treated with caution.

Average Farm Business Income is expected to increase by 14% to £155,000 on specialist pig farms in 2024/25 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). The increase is forecast to be largely driven by lower input costs which are predicted to fall by around 2%. Feed (which typically accounts for a substantial proportion of costs for pig farms) is expected to drop by around 5%, tracking the lower value of feed wheat and barley. This decrease, along with lower crop costs is predicted to more than offset smaller rises for other inputs. Higher output from pig enterprises (4%) will reflect reasonably steady prices for finished pigs, stores and weaners. Both throughput and average carcase weights are also forecast to be slightly higher. However, increased pig output will be offset by lower crop output, the reduction in Basic Payment and a fall in agri-environment income (which is expected to be around 9% lower when related costs are taken into account) meaning that total output at the farm level will remain static compared to 2023/24.

1.7 Mixed Farms

On mixed farms, Farm Business Income is expected to be just over a third higher than 2023/24 at £30,000 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). This type of farm reflects all the enterprises found in the more specialist farm types reported above. Input costs are forecast to fall by 2%, as with other farm types the biggest savings will be for crop costs (19%) and feed (5%). At the same time, total output is expected to see little changed compared to 2023/24 with rises to agri-environment income of 73% and sheep and beef enterprises of 6% and 8% respectively offsetting lower output from crops and the reduction to the Basic Payment.

2 What you need to know about this release

2.1 Availability of results

All Defra statistical notices can be viewed at:
www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-environment-food-rural-affairs/about/statistics

Results from the Farm Business Survey, including time series in spreadsheet format, can be found at:
www.gov.uk/government/collections/farm-business-survey

The next release is expected to be in October/November 2024. The definitive publication date will be announced on the research and statistics webpage on gov.uk.

2.2 Contact details

Responsible statistician: Alison Wray

Public enquiries: fbs.queries@defra.gov.uk

For media queries between 9am and 6pm on weekdays:

Telephone: 0330 041 6560
Email: newsdesk@defra.gov.uk

2.3 National Statistics Status

Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. An explanation can be found on the Office for Statistics Regulation website. Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in January 2014. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards (see contact details above). Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.

Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

• Reviewed and improved data presentation to better meet accessibility guidelines.

• Automated production of the statistics using Reproducible Analytical Pipelines (RAP).

• Reviewed and improved accompanying commentary.

3 Technical note

3.1 Survey coverage, weigthing and accuracy

The Farm Business Survey (FBS) only includes farm businesses with a Standard Output of at least £21,000, based on activity recorded in the previous June Survey of Agriculture and Horticulture. In 2023/24, the sample of 1,373 farms represented approximately 51,300 farm businesses in England.

Initial weights are applied to the FBS records based on the inverse sampling fraction for each design stratum (farm type and farm size). Dataset table 16 in the Farm Accounts in England publication shows the distribution of the sample compared with the distribution of businesses from the 2023 June Survey of Agriculture. These initial weights are then adjusted, using calibration weighting, so that they can produce unbiased estimates of a number of different target variables.

In common with other statistical surveys, the published estimates from the FBS are subject to sampling error, as we are not surveying the whole population. More detailed information about the Farm Business Survey and the data collected can be found at: https://www.gov.uk/farm-business-survey-technical-notes-and-guidance.

The forecasts shown in this release for 2024/25 are provisional, based on information available in early February 2025 for prices, livestock populations, marketings, crop areas and yields. The relative changes, compared to the previous 12 months, are then applied to aggregate data from the most recent FBS for each robust farm type. A level of estimation is necessary, particularly for variables where no market information is available. Outturn results (which will be published in November 2025 based on results for the 2024/25 FBS), could differ from these forecasts for several reasons. These include changes to the sample and to the weighting framework. In 2023/24, of the 1,373 farms that were included in the FBS target population around 360 farms came into the sample that weren’t present in 2022/23. In addition, the FBS weights are refreshed each year in line with the latest farm population data from the June Survey of Agriculture.

3.2 Farm type classification

From 2023/24, the classification of farms is based on 2017 Standard Output (SO) coefficients. The 2022/23 results have been recalculated and presented in this release to allow comparability between 2022/23 and 2023/24. The results published here are therefore not directly comparable with those published in earlier years, which are based on previous standard output coefficients. More details on the impact of the SO change can be found on the Farm Business Survey Technical notes and guidance page.

3.3 Definition of Farm Business Income

For non-corporate businesses, Farm Business Income represents the financial return to all unpaid labour (farmers and spouses, non-principal partners and their spouses and family workers) and on all their capital invested in the farm business, including land and buildings. For corporate businesses it represents the financial return on the shareholders capital invested in the farm business.

In essence Farm Business Income is the same as Net Profit, which as a standard financial accounting measure of income is used widely within and outside agriculture. Using the term Farm Business Income rather than Net Profit, gives an indication of the measure’s farm management accounting rather than financial accounting origins, accurately describes its composition and is intuitively recognisable to users as a measure of farm income.