Accredited official statistics

Figures to December 2022 (published 23 February 2023)

Updated 23 March 2023

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at December 2022

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 18.7% in the 12 months to December 2022.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs was milk (10.4 percentage points), followed by wheat (3.6 percentage points), and pigs (1.9 percentage points).
• The largest downward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs was sheep and lambs (-0.9 percentage points). Smaller downward contributions were also observed from oilseed rape (-0.4 percentage points), fresh fruit (-0.3 percentage points), and forage plants (less than -0.1 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 1.2% in the month to December 2022, compared with an increase of 2.8% in the month to November 2022.

Inputs

• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 20.9% in the 12 months to December 2022.
• The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs came from compound feedingstuffs (6.1 percentage points), followed by fertilisers and soil improvers (4.6 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (3.7 percentage points).
• No downward contributions were recorded for December 2022.
• The price index for agricultural inputs decreased by 1.0% in the month to December 2022, compared with a decrease of 0.4% in the month to November 2022.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs, January 2015 to December 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs from January 2015 to December 2022. Overall, the price index for agricultural outputs tends to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs. Agricultural inputs have seen very strong price inflation throughout 2021 and the first half of 2022, but prices have stabilised in recent months. Agricultural output prices have seen a period of fluctuation in recent months, following a period of very strong inflation in the year prior to this. The price index for agricultural outputs is currently at its second highest recorded value in the series.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to December 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2022, the annual average price index was 19.4% higher for agricultural outputs and 27.7% higher for agricultural inputs. The price index for agricultural outputs was higher than that for agricultural inputs from 2015 to 2021. In 2022, this trend was reversed, with the index for inputs instead being higher.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2015	100.0	100.0
2016	99.6	97.4
2017	110.7	102.5
2018	115.4	110.9
2019	114.2	112.6
2020	119.2	112.6
2021	131.3	125.5
2022	156.8	160.2

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+18.7%) from December 2021 to December 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+18.7%) recorded between December 2021 and December 2022. Nine of the sixteen output categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from milk, wheat, pigs, and cattle and calves, with downward contributions from sheep and lambs, oilseed rape, fresh fruit and forage plants.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Milk	10.4
Wheat	3.6
Pigs	1.9
Cattle and calves	1.3
Barley	0.8
Fresh vegetables	0.7
Eggs	0.6
Poultry	0.4
Oats	0.2
Sugar beet	0.0
Plants and flowers	0.0
Potatoes	0.0
Forage plants	0.0
Fresh fruit	-0.3
Oilseed rape	-0.4
Sheep and lambs	-0.9

Figure 4: Contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (+20.9%) from December 2021 to December 2022 (2015 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (+20.9%) recorded between December 2021 and December 2022. The largest upward contributions came from compound feedingstuffs, fertilisers and soil improvers, and energy and lubricants. No downward contributions were recorded for December 2022.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Compound feedingstuffs	6.1
Fertilisers and soil improvers	4.6
Energy and lubricants	3.7
Straight feedingstuffs	1.7
Materials	1.4
Other goods and services	0.9
Buildings	0.8
Plant protection products	0.7
Maintenance of buildings	0.4
Maintenance of materials	0.4
Seeds	0.1
Veterinary services	0.0

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, December 2021 to December 2022

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for all agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for all agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 11.7% and 25.6% since December 2021, with the main contributors varying for different months. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in December 2022 saw upward contributions from all output categories except industrial and other crops. This was the third consecutive month to report a decrease in the 12-month agricultural outputs inflation rate.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, December 2021 to December 2022

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for all agricultural inputs over the last year. The inflation rate for all agricultural inputs has fluctuated between 19.2% and 33.7% between December 2021 and December 2022. Agricultural inputs have seen exceptionally high rates of inflation in the past year, though December 2022 marks the fifth consecutive month to report a decrease in the 12-month input inflation rate. The increasing cost of natural gas prices has severely impacted the fertiliser industry. With domestic production greatly reduced from late 2021, the price of fertilisers has increased considerably. For example, ammonium nitrate was nearly twice as expensive in December 2022 than in August 2021. Fuel prices have also risen substantially since late 2021, though have begun to fall in recent months.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to December 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate^(a)(b)

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	December 2021	November 2022	December 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	139.3	163.3	165.4	18.7	1.2
Crop products	158.5	173.6	176.2	11.2	1.5
Cereals	184.8	229.1	226.4	22.5	-1.2
Wheat	185.2	230.0	227.5	22.8	-1.1
Barley	187.8	228.7	225.0	19.8	-1.6
Oats	158.9	214.9	209.9	32.1	-2.3
Potatoes	138.2	138.2	138.2	0.0	0.0
Oilseed rape	224.7	203.8	200.5	-10.8	-1.6
Sugar beet	104.8	104.8	104.8	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	146.8	129.2	128.2	-12.7	-0.8
Fresh vegetables	126.8	144.7	150.0	18.4	3.7
Fresh fruit	207.0	138.4	174.3	-15.8	25.9
Animals and animal products	128.6	157.0	159.4	23.9	1.5
Animals	125.0	134.2	135.8	8.7	1.2
Cattle and calves	125.6	134.6	138.7	10.4	3.0
Pigs	106.8	152.1	152.5	42.8	0.3
Sheep and lambs	161.5	142.3	141.7	-12.2	-0.4
Poultry	115.0	119.5	120.1	4.4	0.6
Animal products	134.4	194.3	196.6	46.3	1.2
Milk	140.9	208.5	210.6	49.5	1.0
Eggs	97.8	122.5	122.5	25.2	0.0

^(a) Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.

^(b) Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to December 2022 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate^(a)

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	December 2021	November 2022	December 2022	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs	136.9	167.3	165.6	20.9	-1.0
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	140.9	174.4	172.3	22.3	-1.2
Seeds	119.3	122.1	122.1	2.4	0.0
Energy and lubricants	146.2	219.4	210.0	43.6	-4.3
Fertilisers and soil improvers	199.8	277.6	271.1	35.7	-2.3
Plant protection products	154.5	173.9	170.2	10.2	-2.1
Veterinary services	116.9	118.5	118.5	1.4	0.0
Animal feedingstuffs	140.8	180.3	180.1	27.9	-0.1
Straight feedingstuffs	158.2	185.9	185.1	17.0	-0.5
Compound feedingstuffs	132.9	177.8	177.8	33.8	0.0
Maintenance of materials	119.3	127.8	128.1	7.4	0.2
Maintenance of buildings	141.0	158.1	156.8	11.2	-0.8
Other goods and services	116.2	125.6	125.6	8.1	0.0
Goods and services contributing to investment	119.3	136.0	135.6	13.7	-0.3
Materials	113.1	127.8	128.2	13.4	0.3
Buildings	133.3	154.7	152.4	14.3	-1.5

^(a) Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: info@statistics.gov.uk

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.

Contact details

Responsible statistician: Matthew Lunn

Email: prices@defra.gov.uk

Public enquiries: (0)20 3025 7160

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX