Figures to January 2023 (published 23 March 2023)
Updated 21 March 2024
© Crown copyright 2024
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The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.
1. Key points at January 2023
Outputs
- The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 17.1% in the 12 months to January 2023.
- The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs was milk (8.0 percentage points), followed by pigs (2.4 percentage points), and wheat (2.3 percentage points).
- The largest downward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs was sheep and lambs (-0.9 percentage points), followed by fresh fruit (-0.7 percentage points), and oilseed rape (-0.6 percentage points).
- The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 1.4% in the month to January 2023, compared with an increase of 1.2 percentage points in the month to December 2022.
Inputs
- The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 15.1% in the 12 months to January 2023.
- The largest upward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs came from compound feedingstuffs (4.8 percentage points), followed by energy and lubricants (3.2 percentage points), and fertilisers and soil improvers (2.4 percentage points).
- One downward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs was recorded for seeds (-0.1 percentage points).
- The price index for agricultural inputs decreased by 1.6% in the month to January 2023, compared with a decrease of 1.0% in the month to December 2022.
2. Summary charts for price indices
Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs, January 2015 to January 2023 (2015 = 100)
Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs from January 2015 to January 2023. Overall, the price index for agricultural outputs tends to be more volatile than that for agricultural inputs, though both series have displayed considerable volatility in recent times. The price index for agricultural outputs has seen a period of fluctuation in recent months, following a period of very strong inflation in the year prior to this. Agricultural inputs have seen very strong price inflation throughout 2021 and the first half of 2022, but prices have since decreased.
Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to January 2023 (2015 = 100)
Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2015. In 2022, the annual average price index was 19.8% higher for agricultural outputs and 27.7% higher for agricultural inputs than in 2021. In 2023 (to date), the average price index is 3.8% higher for agricultural outputs and 1.6% higher for agricultural inputs than the average for 2022. In recent months, the overall price index for inputs was higher than that for outputs, but this trend has now reversed.
| Year | All agricultural outputs | All agricultural inputs |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2016 | 99.6 | 97.4 |
| 2017 | 110.7 | 102.5 |
| 2018 | 115.4 | 110.9 |
| 2019 | 114.2 | 112.6 |
| 2020 | 119.2 | 112.6 |
| 2021 | 131.2 | 125.5 |
| 2022 | 157.2 | 160.2 |
| 2023 | 163.3 | 162.8 |
3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rates
Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+17.1%) from January 2022 to January 2023 (2015 = 100)
Figure 3 shows the contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+17.1%) recorded between January 2022 and January 2023. Nine of the sixteen output categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from milk, pigs, wheat, and cattle and calves, with downward contributions from sheep and lambs, fresh fruit, and oilseed rape.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Milk | 8.0 |
| Pigs | 2.4 |
| Wheat | 2.3 |
| Cattle and calves | 2.1 |
| Poultry | 1.9 |
| Fresh vegetables | 1.1 |
| Barley | 0.5 |
| Eggs | 0.4 |
| Oats | 0.2 |
| Sugar beet | 0.0 |
| Plants and flowers | 0.0 |
| Potatoes | 0.0 |
| Forage plants | 0.0 |
| Oilseed rape | -0.6 |
| Fresh fruit | -0.7 |
| Sheep and lambs | -0.9 |
Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (15.1%) from January 2022 to January 2023 (2015 = 100)
Figure 4 shows the contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (+15.1%) recorded between January 2022 and January 2023. Eleven of the twelve input categories shown reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from compound feedingstuffs, energy and lubricants, and fertilisers and soil improvers. A downward contribution was recorded from seeds.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Compound feedingstuffs | 4.8 |
| Energy and lubricants | 3.2 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 2.4 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 1.3 |
| Other goods and services | 0.9 |
| Buildings | 0.8 |
| Plant protection products | 0.5 |
| Materials | 0.5 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 0.4 |
| Maintenance of materials | 0.3 |
| Veterinary services | 0.0 |
| Seeds | -0.1 |
4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rates
Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, January 2022 to January 2023
Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for all agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 12.0% and 25.8% since January 2022, with the main contributors varying for different months. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate in January 2023 saw upward contributions from all output commodity categories except industrial and other crops, which recorded a slight downward contribution. This was the fourth consecutive month to record a decrease in the agricultural outputs inflation rate.
Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, January 2022 to January 2023
Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for all agricultural inputs over the last year. The 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs has fluctuated between 15.1% and 33.7% in the last year. Agricultural inputs have seen exceptionally high inflation rates in the past year, but prices are stabilising amid large falls in wholesale gas prices and considerable price falls in the components of animal feed. In particular, fertilisers have seen very high inflation rates in the last year, and while prices remain considerably above 2021 levels, inflation rates have slowed considerably.
More information on the contents of each group can be found in the About these statistics section below.
5. Summary table of price indices
Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to January 2023 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate(a)(b)
Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.
| Category | January 2022 | December 2022 | January 2023 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural outputs | 139.5 | 165.6 | 163.3 | 17.1 | -1.4 |
| Crop products | 162.2 | 177.1 | 173.6 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| Cereals | 189.3 | 226.4 | 219.0 | 15.7 | -3.2 |
| Wheat | 189.0 | 227.5 | 219.3 | 16.1 | -3.6 |
| Barley | 195.5 | 225.0 | 220.1 | 12.6 | -2.2 |
| Oats | 165.7 | 209.9 | 207.5 | 25.2 | -1.1 |
| Potatoes | 138.2 | 138.2 | 138.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oilseed rape | 232.7 | 200.5 | 194.3 | -16.5 | -3.1 |
| Sugar beet | 133.6 | 133.6 | 133.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forage plants | 146.2 | 128.2 | 129.2 | -11.6 | 0.8 |
| Fresh vegetables | 121.8 | 150.0 | 159.5 | 30.9 | 6.3 |
| Fresh fruit | 246.8 | 174.3 | 182.1 | -26.2 | 4.5 |
| Animals and animal products | 128.0 | 159.2 | 158.1 | 23.5 | -0.7 |
| Animals | 122.4 | 135.8 | 141.3 | 15.5 | 4.1 |
| Cattle and calves | 122.8 | 138.7 | 141.2 | 15.0 | 1.8 |
| Pigs | 104.2 | 152.5 | 154.7 | 48.4 | 1.4 |
| Sheep and lambs | 155.1 | 141.7 | 134.4 | -13.3 | -5.1 |
| Poultry | 115.8 | 120.1 | 136.4 | 17.9 | 13.6 |
| Animal products | 138.3 | 196.1 | 188.3 | 36.1 | -4.0 |
| Milk | 144.9 | 210.7 | 200.9 | 38.7 | -4.7 |
| Eggs | 99.6 | 118.4 | 118.5 | 18.9 | 0.0 |
(a) Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.
(b) Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.
Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to January 2023 (2015 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate(a)
Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.
| Category | January 2022 | December 2022 | January 2023 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural inputs | 141.5 | 165.5 | 162.8 | 15.1 | -1.6 |
| Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture | 144.9 | 172.3 | 168.8 | 16.5 | -2.0 |
| Seeds | 124.9 | 122.1 | 122.1 | -2.3 | 0.0 |
| Energy and lubricants | 145.9 | 210.0 | 202.5 | 38.8 | -3.6 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 205.4 | 270.5 | 243.4 | 18.5 | -10.0 |
| Plant protection products | 160.3 | 170.2 | 172.7 | 7.7 | 1.5 |
| Veterinary services | 117.0 | 118.2 | 118.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Animal feedingstuffs | 148.0 | 180.1 | 180.1 | 21.6 | 0.0 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 162.6 | 185.1 | 185.0 | 13.8 | -0.1 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | 141.4 | 177.8 | 177.8 | 25.7 | 0.0 |
| Maintenance of materials | 121.1 | 128.1 | 128.7 | 6.3 | 0.5 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 141.3 | 156.8 | 156.0 | 10.4 | -0.5 |
| Other goods and services | 116.5 | 125.6 | 125.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 |
| Goods and services contributing to investment | 126.4 | 135.6 | 136.3 | 7.8 | 0.5 |
| Materials | 123.0 | 128.1 | 128.6 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
| Buildings | 134.3 | 152.5 | 153.7 | 14.5 | 0.8 |
(a) Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.
National Statistics status
National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.
These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.
For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:
Email: info@statistics.gov.uk
Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034
You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/
About these statistics
Revisions
- Price index for eggs revised for January 2022 to December 2022.
Background
The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).
The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.
Data uses
Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.
Methodology
Price data
Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.
In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.
Weights
Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The April 2018 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2015, replacing weights based on 2010.
Contributions
It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.
The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.
The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:
-
Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.
-
Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.
-
Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.
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Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.
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Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.
User engagement
As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.
Contact details
Responsible statistician: Matthew Lunn
Email: prices@defra.gov.uk
Public enquiries: (0)20 3025 7160
Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX