Accredited official statistics

Figures to June 2023 (published 24 August 2023)

Updated 21 March 2024

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at June 2023

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 4.0% in the 12 months to June 2023.
• There were 7 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for June 2023. The largest upward contribution was potatoes (1.6 percentage points), followed by eggs (1.3 percentage points), and poultry (1.2 percentage points).
• There were 7 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for June 2023. The largest downward contribution was milk (-4.1 percentage points), followed by wheat (-3.8 percentage points), and oilseed rape (-2.4 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 2.6% in the month to June 2023. In comparison, the index decreased by 2.9% in the month to May 2023.

Inputs

• In the 12 months to June 2023, the price index for agricultural inputs decreased by 9.9%.
• There were 5 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for June 2023. The largest upward contribution came from plant protection products (0.7 percentage points), followed by other goods and services (0.5 percentage points), and maintenance of materials (0.3 percentage points).
• There were 7 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for June 2023. The largest downward contribution was fertilisers and soil improvers (-7.4 percentage points), followed by straight feedingstuffs (-1.7 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (-1.5 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 1.5% in the month to June 2023. In comparison, the index also decreased by 1.5% in the month to May 2023.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to June 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs since January 2020. The two indices were closely aligned throughout 2020 and much of 2021, before agricultural inputs saw considerably higher rates of inflation as prices of key inputs (particularly fertiliser and animal feed) experienced rapid price increases. Following this, the agricultural inputs index saw a period of price stabilisation while the agricultural outputs index continued to rise, peaking later in 2022. The two indices have seen month-on-month declines so far in 2023. Since mid-2021, the index for agricultural outputs has consistently been below the index for inputs.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to June 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2020. In the first half of 2023, the annual average price index was 3.8% higher for agricultural outputs and 1.8% lower for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs was 2022, with 2023 so far showing the second largest difference.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2020	100.0	100.0
2021	109.9	111.4
2022	130.6	143.2
2023	135.6	140.6

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs index (-4.0%) from June 2022 to June 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the -4.0% agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between June 2022 and June 2023. Of the 16 output categories shown 7 reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from potatoes, eggs, and poultry. The largest downward contributions were from milk, wheat, and oilseed rape.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Potatoes	1.6
Eggs	1.3
Poultry	1.2
Cattle and calves	1.1
Pigs	1.1
Fresh vegetables	1.1
Fresh fruit	0.3
Sugar beet	0.0
Plants and flowers	0.0
Forage plants	-0.0
Oats	-0.1
Sheep and lambs	-0.2
Barley	-0.9
Oilseed rape	-2.4
Wheat	-3.8
Milk	-4.1

Notes:

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs index (-9.9%) from June 2022 to June 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the -9.9% agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between June 2022 and June 2023. The largest upward contributions came from plant protection products, other goods and services, and maintenance of materials. The largest downward contributions were from fertilisers and soil improvers, straight feedingstuffs, and energy and lubricants.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Plant protection products	0.7
Other goods and services	0.5
Maintenance of materials	0.3
Veterinary services	0.1
Buildings	0.0
Materials	-0.0
Maintenance of buildings	-0.1
Seeds	-0.1
Compound feedingstuffs	-0.6
Energy and lubricants	-1.5
Straight feedingstuffs	-1.7
Fertilisers and soil improvers	-7.4

Notes:

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, June 2022 to June 2023

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between -4.0% and 23.8% in the last 12 months. In June 2023 there were upwards contributions from horticulture, and livestock and animal products, and downwards contributions from cereals, and industrial and other crops.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, June 2022 to June 2023

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between -9.9% and 35.3% in the last 12 months. In June 2023 the only upwards contribution was from other farm costs, with downwards contributions from crop- and livestock-related costs, and energy and fuel.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the ‘About these statistics’ section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to June 2023 (2020 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	June 2022	May 2023	June 2023	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	133.9	132.0	128.5	-4.0	-2.6
Crop products	138.1	129.8	122.3	-11.5	-5.8
Cereals	192.0	132.6	125.6	-34.6	-5.3
Wheat	190.2	130.6	123.8	-34.9	-5.2
Barley	198.3	140.9	131.4	-33.8	-6.8
Oats	200.8	146.5	134.4	-33.1	-8.2
Potatoes	84.1	149.4	149.4	77.5	0.0
Oilseed rape	240.8	115.4	106.1	-55.9	-8.0
Sugar beet	131.4	131.4	131.4	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	81.4	71.4	71.4	-12.2	0.0
Fresh vegetables	124.5	148.9	145.5	16.8	-2.3
Fresh fruit	93.8	133.4	99.9	6.4	-25.1
Animals and animal products	131.4	133.3	132.3	0.8	-0.7
Animals	120.9	133.0	132.9	9.9	-0.1
Cattle and calves	129.5	144.5	141.2	9.0	-2.3
Pigs	114.8	138.0	139.8	21.7	1.3
Sheep and lambs	139.9	148.0	136.0	-2.8	-8.1
Poultry	104.1	109.1	117.2	12.6	7.5
Animal products	147.0	133.8	131.6	-10.5	-1.7
Milk	152.4	128.9	126.1	-17.3	-2.2
Eggs	116.5	166.3	166.3	42.8	0.0

Notes:

• Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.

• Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.

• This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to June 2023 (2020 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	June 2022	May 2023	June 2023	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs	148.2	135.6	133.5	-9.9	-1.5
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	153.1	137.8	135.2	-11.7	-1.9
Seeds	110.3	106.6	106.9	-3.1	0.3
Energy and lubricants	189.7	169.8	161.2	-15.0	-5.0
Fertilisers and soil improvers	313.7	184.6	162.6	-48.2	-11.9
Plant protection products	109.2	126.4	126.4	15.7	0.0
Veterinary services	102.2	105.7	105.8	3.5	0.0
Animal feedingstuffs	153.4	141.7	142.0	-7.4	0.2
Straight feedingstuffs	155.3	126.8	126.3	-18.7	-0.4
Compound feedingstuffs	152.6	148.1	148.2	-2.9	0.1
Maintenance of materials	110.6	118.2	117.6	6.3	-0.5
Maintenance of buildings	143.7	142.6	140.7	-2.0	-1.3
Other goods and services	111.0	116.0	116.3	4.7	0.2
Goods and services contributing to investment	125.7	125.6	125.6	-0.1	-0.0
Materials	119.2	119.2	119.0	-0.1	-0.1
Buildings	139.6	139.4	139.6	0.0	0.2

Notes:

• Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.

• This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: info@statistics.gov.uk

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Revisions

In this release, revisions have been made to the price indices for February and April 2023 to correct an error in the weightings that were used. The all agricultural outputs and all agricultural inputs values were impacted by <1% in both months.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The March 2023 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2020, replacing weights based on 2015.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.

Contact details

Responsible statistician: Katie Fisher

Email: prices@defra.gov.uk

Telephone: (0)208 565 4419

Media enquiries: (0)330 041 6560; newsdesk@defra.gov.uk

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
3rd floor, Mallard House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX