Figures to October 2023 (published 14 December 2023)
Updated 21 March 2024
© Crown copyright 2024
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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/historical-statistics-notices-on-agricultural-price-indices-2023/figures-to-october-2023-published-14-december-2023
The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.
1. Key points at October 2023
Outputs
- The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 5.1% in the 12 months to October 2023.
- There were 10 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for October 2023. The largest upward contribution was poultry (+1.2 percentage points), followed by potatoes (+1.1 percentage points), and eggs (+0.7 percentage points).
- There were 6 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for October 2023. The largest downward contribution was milk (-6.3 percentage points), followed by wheat (-2.4 percentage points), and barley (-1.3 percentage points).
- The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 0.2% in the month to October 2023. In comparison, the index decreased by 1.3% in the month to September 2023.
Inputs
- In the 12 months to October 2023, the price index for agricultural inputs decreased by 10.4%.
- There were 5 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for October 2023. The largest upward contribution came from plant protection products (+0.7 percentage points), followed by maintenance of materials (+0.4 percentage points), and materials (+0.2 percentage points).
- There were 7 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for October 2023. The largest downward contribution was fertilisers and soil improvers (-5.5 percentage points), followed by compound feedingstuffs (-3.0 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (-1.6 percentage points).
- The price index for agricultural inputs decreased by 0.6% in the month to October 2023. In comparison, the index increased by 1.1% in the month to September 2023.
2. Summary charts for price indices
Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to October 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 1 illustrates monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs since January 2020. The price indices for both agricultural outputs and inputs began rising steeply around autumn 2021.
The index for output prices peaked a few months after that for input prices, towards the end of 2022, and has remained below the input prices since mid-2021. Despite recent declines in the indices for outputs and inputs, both remain considerably higher than the 2020 baseline.
Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to October 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2020. In 2023 (to date), the annual average price index increased by 1.6% for agricultural outputs and decreased by 4.4% for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs was 2022, with 2023 showing the second largest difference.
| Year | All agricultural outputs | All agricultural inputs |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2021 | 109.9 | 111.4 |
| 2022 | 130.7 | 143.2 |
| 2023 | 132.8 | 136.9 |
3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate
Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs index (-5.1%) from October 2022 to October 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 3 shows the contributions to the -5.1% agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between October 2022 and October 2023. Of the 16 output categories shown 10 reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from poultry, potatoes, and eggs. The largest downward contributions were from milk, wheat, and barley.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Poultry | 1.2 |
| Potatoes | 1.1 |
| Eggs | 0.7 |
| Fresh fruit | 0.6 |
| Pigs | 0.6 |
| Cattle and calves | 0.6 |
| Fresh vegetables | 0.5 |
| Sheep and lambs | 0.5 |
| Forage plants | 0.0 |
| Sugar beet | 0.0 |
| Plants and flowers | -0.0 |
| Oats | -0.1 |
| Oilseed rape | -0.8 |
| Barley | -1.3 |
| Wheat | -2.4 |
| Milk | -6.3 |
Notes:
- Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs index (-10.4%) from October 2022 to October 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 4 shows the contributions to the -10.4% agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between October 2022 and October 2023. The largest upward contributions came from plant protection products, maintenance of materials, and materials. The largest downward contributions were from fertilisers and soil improvers, compound feedingstuffs, and energy and lubricants.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Plant protection products | 0.7 |
| Maintenance of materials | 0.4 |
| Materials | 0.2 |
| Other goods and services | 0.1 |
| Veterinary services | 0.0 |
| Buildings | -0.1 |
| Seeds | -0.1 |
| Maintenance of buildings | -0.1 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | -1.3 |
| Energy and lubricants | -1.6 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | -3.0 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | -5.5 |
Notes:
- Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate
Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, October 2022 to October 2023
Figure 5 illustrates the varying contributions of different agricultural commodity categories to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs over the past year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has ranged from -5.5% to +23.8% during this period. In the 12 months to October 2023, horticulture was the only category that showed growth, contributing +2.2 percentage points to the overall inflation rate. Cereals made the most negative contribution at -3.8 percentage points, followed by livestock and animal products (-2.7 percentage points), and industrial and other crops (-0.9 percentage point).
Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, October 2022 to October 2023
Figure 6 depicts the contributions of various agricultural inputs to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the past year. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs has ranged from -13.2% to +26.4% in the last 12 months. In the 12 months to October 2023 other farm costs stood out as the sole input making a positive contribution to the inflation rate, adding +0.5 percentage points. Crop related costs had the most substantial negative impact, contributing -4.9 percentage points, followed by livestock related costs (-4.3 percentage points) and energy and fuel (-1.6 percentage points).
More information on the contents of each group can be found in the ‘About these statistics’ section below.
5. Summary table of price indices
Table 1: Agricultural Output Price Indices and Inflation Rates (October 2022 - October 2023)
Table 1 displays the price indices for agricultural outputs in October 2022, September 2023, and October 2023, with the base year being 2020 = 100. Additionally, it provides the 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rates for agricultural outputs during this period. The agricultural outputs are split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.
| Category | October 2022 | September 2023 | October 2023 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural outputs | 134.5 | 127.4 | 127.7 | -5.1 | 0.2 |
| Crop products | 136.1 | 124.7 | 127.2 | -6.5 | 2.0 |
| Cereals | 174.6 | 125.9 | 128.8 | -26.2 | 2.3 |
| Wheat | 167.3 | 118.6 | 119.8 | -28.4 | 1.0 |
| Barley | 187.5 | 137.8 | 142.2 | -24.2 | 3.2 |
| Oats | 171.8 | 144.5 | 147.7 | -14.0 | 2.2 |
| Potatoes | 130.2 | 192.2 | 181.6 | 39.4 | -5.5 |
| Oilseed rape | 157.3 | 109.2 | 107.6 | -31.6 | -1.5 |
| Sugar beet | 131.4 | 131.4 | 131.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forage plants | 73.1 | 86.4 | 84.7 | 15.9 | -1.9 |
| Fresh vegetables | 126.8 | 130.1 | 135.2 | 6.6 | 3.9 |
| Fresh fruit | 96.0 | 105.2 | 113.4 | 18.2 | 7.8 |
| Animals and animal products | 133.6 | 129.3 | 127.9 | -4.2 | -1.1 |
| Animals | 115.1 | 127.0 | 124.5 | 8.2 | -2.0 |
| Cattle and calves | 125.8 | 134.6 | 131.7 | 4.7 | -2.1 |
| Pigs | 124.2 | 139.9 | 137.4 | 10.6 | -1.8 |
| Sheep and lambs | 108.1 | 114.6 | 117.2 | 8.5 | 2.3 |
| Poultry | 102.6 | 118.8 | 114.8 | 11.9 | -3.3 |
| Animal products | 170.3 | 133.0 | 134.7 | -20.9 | 1.3 |
| Milk | 177.2 | 127.4 | 129.5 | -26.9 | 1.7 |
| Eggs | 135.0 | 168.8 | 168.8 | 25.0 | -0.0 |
Notes:
-
Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.
-
Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.
-
This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.
-
Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
Table 2: Agricultural Input Price Indices and Inflation Rates (October 2022 - October 2023)
Table 2 displays the price indices for agricultural inputs in October 2022, September 2023, and October 2023, with the base year being 2020 = 100. Additionally, it provides the 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rates for agricultural inputs during this period. The agricultural inputs are split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.
| Category | October 2022 | September 2023 | October 2023 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural inputs | 146.1 | 131.7 | 130.9 | -10.4 | -0.6 |
| Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture | 150.6 | 132.8 | 131.9 | -12.4 | -0.7 |
| Seeds | 107.6 | 105.1 | 105.0 | -2.5 | -0.1 |
| Energy and lubricants | 194.1 | 165.5 | 164.5 | -15.2 | -0.6 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 317.8 | 160.0 | 160.4 | -49.5 | 0.2 |
| Plant protection products | 111.3 | 128.4 | 128.4 | 15.4 | 0.0 |
| Veterinary services | 103.5 | 105.8 | 105.7 | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Animal feedingstuffs | 155.9 | 134.2 | 134.9 | -13.4 | 0.5 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 146.9 | 121.5 | 123.6 | -15.9 | 1.7 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | 159.2 | 139.0 | 139.2 | -12.6 | 0.2 |
| Maintenance of materials | 112.5 | 121.3 | 121.6 | 8.1 | 0.2 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 140.0 | 138.1 | 137.1 | -2.1 | -0.8 |
| Other goods and services | 114.0 | 116.1 | 115.0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| Goods and services contributing to investment | 125.6 | 126.8 | 126.5 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| Materials | 119.6 | 121.7 | 121.6 | 1.6 | -0.1 |
| Buildings | 138.4 | 137.6 | 137.1 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
Notes:
-
Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.
-
This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.
-
Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
Revisions
This release includes revisions to the following price indices:
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Mushrooms (buttons): All prices in this category updated with latest annual data.
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Wool clip: All prices in this category updated with latest annual data.
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Cereal seeds: All prices in this category updated with latest quarterly data.
National Statistics status
National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.
These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.
For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:
Email: info@statistics.gov.uk
Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034
You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/
About these statistics
Background
The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).
The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.
Data uses
Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.
Methodology
Price data
Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.
In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.
Weights
Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The March 2023 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2020, replacing weights based on 2015.
Contributions
It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.
The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.
The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:
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Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.
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Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.
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Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.
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Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.
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Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.
User engagement
As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.
Contact details
Responsible statistician: Mark Kirby
Email: prices@defra.gov.uk
Media enquiries: (0)330 041 6560; newsdesk@defra.gov.uk
Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
3rd floor, Mallard House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX