Accredited official statistics

Figures to January 2024 (published 27 March 2024)

Updated 21 November 2024

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at January 2024

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 5.6% in the 12 months to January 2024.
• There were 8 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for January 2024. The largest upward contribution was potatoes (+1.9 percentage points), followed by sheep and lambs (+0.9 percentage points), and cattle and calves (+0.8 percentage points).
• There were 6 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for January 2024. The largest downward contribution was milk (-5.9 percentage points), followed by wheat (-2.6 percentage points), and oilseed rape (-0.7 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 0.6% in the month to January 2024. In comparison, the index increased by 0.6% in the month to December 2023.

Inputs

• In the 12 months to January 2024, the price index for agricultural inputs decreased by 11.3%.
• There were 6 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for January 2024. The largest upward contribution came from maintenance of materials (+0.4 percentage points), followed by plant protection products (+0.2 percentage points), and buildings (+0.1 percentage points).
• There were 6 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for January 2024. The largest downward contribution was fertilisers and soil improvers (-5.8 percentage points), followed by compound feedingstuffs (-3.8 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (-1.6 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural inputs increased by 0.9% in the month to January 2024. In comparison, the index decreased by 0.4% in the month to December 2023.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to January 2024 (2020 = 100)

Figure 1 illustrates monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs since January 2020. The price indices for both agricultural outputs and inputs began rising steeply around autumn 2021.

The index for output prices peaked a few months after that for input prices, towards the end of 2022, and has remained below the input prices since mid-2021. Despite recent declines in the indices for outputs and inputs, both remain considerably higher than the 2020 baseline.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to January 2024 (2020 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2014. In 2024 (to date), the annual average price index decreased by 0.5% for agricultural outputs and decreased by 3.5% for agricultural inputs. The year with the largest difference between the agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs was 2022, with 2019 showing the second largest difference.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2014	95.3	94.3
2015	86.5	89.6
2016	85.5	87.5
2017	93.8	92.8
2018	97.4	100.1
2019	96.5	101.8
2020	100.0	100.0
2021	109.9	111.4
2022	130.6	143.2
2023	132.4	136.1
2024	131.8	131.4

3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 3: Contributions to change in the agricultural outputs index (-5.6%) from January 2023 to January 2024 (2020 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the -5.6% agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate between January 2023 and January 2024. Of the 16 output categories shown 8 reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from potatoes, sheep and lambs, and cattle and calves. The largest downward contributions were from milk, wheat, and oilseed rape.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Potatoes	1.9
Sheep and lambs	0.9
Cattle and calves	0.8
Eggs	0.4
Pigs	0.3
Fresh fruit	0.2
Fresh vegetables	0.1
Forage plants	0.1
Sugar beet	0.0
Plants and flowers	0.0
Oats	-0.0
Poultry	-0.3
Barley	-0.7
Oilseed rape	-0.7
Wheat	-2.6
Milk	-5.9

Notes:

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

Figure 4: Contributions to change in the agricultural inputs index (-11.3%) from January 2023 to January 2024 (2020 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the -11.3% agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate between January 2023 and January 2024. The largest upward contributions came from maintenance of materials, plant protection products, and buildings. The largest downward contributions were from fertilisers and soil improvers, compound feedingstuffs, and energy and lubricants.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Maintenance of materials	0.4
Plant protection products	0.2
Buildings	0.1
Materials	0.1
Other goods and services	0.1
Veterinary services	0.0
Maintenance of buildings	-0.1
Seeds	-0.1
Straight feedingstuffs	-1.1
Energy and lubricants	-1.6
Compound feedingstuffs	-3.8
Fertilisers and soil improvers	-5.8

Notes:

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, January 2023 to January 2024

Figure 5 illustrates the varying contributions of different agricultural commodity categories to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs from January 2023 to January 2024. The 12 month inflation rate for agricultural outputs has ranged from -6.7% to +19.5% during this period.

For January 2024, horticulture was the only category that made a positive contribution to the 12-month inflation rate, contributing +2.2 percentage points. Livestock and animal products at -3.9 percentage points made the most negative contribution, followed by, cereals (-3.2 percentage points) and industrial and other crops (-0.7 percentage point).

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, January 2023 to January 2024

Figure 6 depicts the contributions of various agricultural inputs to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs from January 2023 to January 2024. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs ranged from -12.9% to +15.3% during this period.

For January 2024 other farm costs was the only input that made a positive contribution to the 12-month inflation rate, adding +0.7 percentage points. Crop related costs had the most substantial negative impact, contributing -5.6 percentage points, followed by livestock related costs (-4.8 percentage points) and energy and fuel (-1.6 percentage points).

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the ‘About these statistics’ section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Agricultural Output Price Indices and Inflation Rates (January 2023 - January 2024)

Table 1 displays the price indices for agricultural outputs in January 2023, December 2023, and January 2024, with the base year being 2020 = 100. Additionally, it provides the 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rates for agricultural outputs. The agricultural outputs are split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	January 2023	December 2023	January 2024	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	139.5	131.0	131.8	-5.6	0.6
Crop products	137.4	129.6	130.4	-5.1	0.6
Cereals	164.6	130.4	128.3	-22.1	-1.6
Wheat	159.0	120.3	120.9	-24.0	0.4
Barley	182.9	143.3	147.4	-19.4	2.8
Oats	176.3	166.0	172.6	-2.1	3.9
Potatoes	126.0	199.5	206.8	64.1	3.6
Oilseed rape	148.9	106.6	105.8	-29.0	-0.8
Sugar beet	131.4	131.4	131.4	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	73.1	99.2	109.6	50.0	10.5
Fresh vegetables	131.9	133.9	136.0	3.1	1.5
Fresh fruit	97.0	103.4	113.5	17.1	9.8
Animals and animal products	140.6	131.7	132.5	-5.8	0.6
Animals	124.9	128.4	130.3	4.3	1.5
Cattle and calves	133.7	138.6	141.2	5.6	1.9
Pigs	126.1	134.1	132.4	5.0	-1.2
Sheep and lambs	108.3	122.8	130.0	20.0	5.8
Poultry	121.0	118.8	117.7	-2.7	-1.0
Animal products	169.0	137.0	136.4	-19.3	-0.4
Milk	173.0	132.3	131.8	-23.8	-0.4
Eggs	151.4	168.2	168.2	11.2	0.0

Notes:

• Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.

• Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.

• This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

Table 2: Agricultural Input Price Indices and Inflation Rates (January 2023 - January 2024)

Table 2 displays the price indices for agricultural inputs in January 2023, December 2023, and January 2024, with the base year being 2020 = 100. Additionally, it provides the 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rates for agricultural inputs. The agricultural inputs are split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	January 2023	December 2023	January 2024	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs	148.1	130.2	131.4	-11.3	0.9
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	152.6	130.7	132.1	-13.5	1.1
Seeds	108.3	106.6	106.2	-2.0	-0.4
Energy and lubricants	184.6	155.2	153.9	-16.6	-0.8
Fertilisers and soil improvers	268.3	160.7	163.2	-39.2	1.6
Plant protection products	120.4	128.1	127.1	5.6	-0.8
Veterinary services	104.6	105.8	106.0	1.3	0.2
Animal feedingstuffs	154.3	132.2	131.7	-14.7	-0.4
Straight feedingstuffs	142.6	127.2	123.6	-13.3	-2.9
Compound feedingstuffs	158.4	134.2	134.5	-15.1	0.3
Maintenance of materials	114.0	122.4	124.5	9.2	1.7
Maintenance of buildings	138.4	136.4	136.2	-1.6	-0.2
Other goods and services	118.3	118.0	119.1	0.7	0.9
Goods and services contributing to investment	125.7	128.2	128.0	1.8	-0.2
Materials	120.3	122.5	121.9	1.4	-0.4
Buildings	137.1	140.5	140.9	2.7	0.3

Notes:

• Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.

• This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

What you need to know about this release

Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. An explanation can be found on the Office for Statistics Regulation website. Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in 2014. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards (see contact details below). Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.

Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

• updated the range of prices collected based on availability and quality
• improved weighting methodology.

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The March 2023 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2020, replacing weights based on 2015.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.

Contact details

Responsible statistician: Mark Kirby

Email: prices@defra.gov.uk

Media enquiries: (0)330 041 6560; newsdesk@defra.gov.uk

Department for Environment, Food And Rural Affairs
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York
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