Accredited official statistics

Housing supply: indicators of new supply, England: July to September 2022

Published 14 December 2022

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

Date of next publication: It is expected that the Housing supply: indicators of new supply, England: October to December 2022 statistics will be published in March 2023 (provisional). The date will be pre-announced on the GOV.UK publication release calendar

1. Key statistics

1.1 Building control figures (seasonally adjusted)

According to building control figures, between 1 July and 30 September 2022, the number of dwellings where building work has started on site was 42,430 (seasonally adjusted). This is a 19% decrease when compared to the previous quarter and is a 2% decrease when compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The number of dwellings completed was 42,950 (seasonally adjusted). This is a 4% decrease when compared to the previous quarter and is stable (0% change) when compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

1.2 Other housing supply indicators

In 2021-22, there were 232,820 net additional dwellings. This is a 10% increase when compared to 2020-21.

In the quarter ending September 2022, there were 61,190 new dwelling EPCs lodged. This is a 3% increase when compared to the same quarter last year.

In the year ending September 2022, there were 246,190 new dwelling EPCs lodged. This is a 1% decrease when compared to last year.

In 2021-22, there were 232,710 net increase in the number of domestic properties with a council tax band. This is a 15% increase when compared to 2020-21.

2. Introduction

The purpose of this release is to provide an indication of the levels of and trends in new housing supply in England (please see the Technical Notes for information on statistics in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland). This statistical release presents National Statistics on building control reported estimates of housing supply in England up to 30 September 2022. This release also presents estimates of housing supply in England using other additional data sources.

The ‘new build dwelling’ figures are based on building control inspection data submitted to the Department by local authorities, the National House Building Council (NHBC) and other independent approved building control inspectors. This series began in 1946 based solely on local authority building control. NHBC data were added from 1985 and, after 2007, legislation allowed data from independent approved inspectors.

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) also publishes an annual release titled ‘Housing supply: net additional dwellings’, which is the primary and most comprehensive measure of housing supply. This includes figures for new house building, conversions (for example a house into flats), change of use of an existing building (for example a shop into a house or a barn conversion), other gains/losses, and demolitions. The next release of ‘Housing supply: net additional dwellings’ will be in November 2023 and will cover the year ending 31 March 2023. The indicators of new supply release should be regarded as a leading indicator of overall housing supply.

Our interactive dashboard illustrates results and historical trends from this release.

3. Building control reported new build starts and completions

It is estimated that the building control sourced data currently provides information on about 80% of house building in England, further details are available in the Technical Notes.

3.1 Quarterly figures for 2022 Q3

Quarterly figures for new build dwelling starts and completions are given on a seasonally adjusted basis. These should be used for quarterly comparisons to see trends.

In 2022 Q3 (1 July to 30 September 2022), new build dwelling starts in England were estimated to be 42,430 (seasonally adjusted), a 19% decrease when compared to 2022 Q2 and a 2% decrease when compared to 2021 Q3. Starts are 19% below their 2022 Q2 peak and are 151% above their 2020 Q2 trough.

New build dwelling completions in England were estimated to be 42,950 (seasonally adjusted), a 4% decrease when compared to 2022 Q2 and stable (0% change) when compared to 2021 Q3. Completions are 11% below their 2007 Q1 peak and are 167% above their 2020 Q2 trough.

As can be seen from Figure 1 below, trends in starts and completions were similar up to 2008. During the economic downturn of 2008, both starts and completions fell. Completions fell more slowly than starts, but over a longer period. From 2009, starts began to recover and during the next three years both series converged and levelled out. From 2013 to 2018, both starts and completions gradually grew again. Since 2019, there was a sustained decrease in starts whilst completions continued to grow. In 2020, there was a steep fall in starts and completions with both reaching their lowest level in the June quarter 2020 reflecting the restrictions introduced during Spring 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Following a sharp uptick in the September quarter 2020, starts and completions both continued to increase up to the March quarter 2021. Starts and completions then both fell to the December quarter 2021. Completions have been broadly level this calendar year, but starts have been more volatile, decreasing this quarter.

Figure 1 Seasonally adjusted trends in quarterly building control reported new build dwelling starts and completions, England, 2006 Q2 to 2022 Q3

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3.2 Quarterly index

The quarterly index starts at 100 in 2007 Q2. This should be used when looking at the rate of change of starts and completions rather than the numeric change.

As can be seen from Figure 2 below, the index shows a similar pattern to the seasonally adjusted quarterly estimates with the recent increase in starts and completions evident.

Figure 2 Index of building control reported new build dwelling starts and completions, quarterly (Seasonally Adjusted), England, 2007 Q2 to 2022 Q3

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3.3 Annual figures

These figures are not seasonally adjusted and give annual estimates for house building over a rolling 12-month period. These can be used to make year on year comparisons.

In the year to 30 September 2022, new build dwelling starts in England were estimated to be 181,030, a 1% increase when compared to the year to 30 September 2021.

New build dwelling completions in England were estimated to be 173,220, a 4% decrease when compared to the year to 30 September 2021.

As can be seen from Figure 3 below, annual new build dwelling starts were broadly increasing from 2002 until achieving a peak of 183,600 in the year ending December 2007. Starts then fell sharply to a low of 75,350 in the year ending June 2009 following the economic downturn. Over the following decade, starts increased to reach 169,200 in the year ending September 2018, before falling gradually to 148,520 in the year ending March 2020. Starts then dropped steeply to 123,030 in the year ending September 2020 due to the restrictions introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, starts have rose sharply and totalled 181,030 in the year ending September 2022.

Similarly, annual new build dwelling completions generally increased from 2002 until reaching 176,640 the year ending December 2007. Completions then gradually fell, reaching a low of 106,720 in the year ending December 2010. Thereafter, completions increased steadily to 177,880 in the year ending December 2019. Completions then dropped steeply in Spring 2020 to 144,980 in the year ending September 2020 due to the restrictions introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Completions recovered to a peak of 181,900 in the year ending June 2021 and have since fallen to 173,230 in the year ending September 2022.

Figure 3 Trends in building control reported estimates of starts and completions, 12-month rolling totals (not seasonally adjusted), England, 2002 to 2022

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4. Further indicators of supply

This section provides analysis of other indicators of housing supply. It is intended that these indicators, along with the building control data, provide a suite of information which give a rounded estimate of the current trends in housing supply and an indication of what the more complete estimate of housing supply, net additional dwellings, will show when it becomes available in November 2023.

4.1 Energy Performance Certificates

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) publishes quarterly experimental official statistics on the Energy Performance of Buildings Certificates (EPCs) in England^{[footnote 1]} which includes statistics on EPCs lodged for new dwellings.

The EPC statistics can be compared to the previously mentioned annual ‘Housing supply: net additional dwellings’ release, which is the primary and most comprehensive measure of housing supply. As with the net additional dwellings figures, those from the EPC data include new build dwellings, conversions and change of use. EPCs provide a very close estimate to net additions.

Since 2012-13, the low point following the economic downturn, both net additional dwellings and EPCs lodged for new dwellings in England have been steadily increasing. In 2019-20, net additions reached 242,700 and new dwelling EPCs totalled 254,720. In 2020-21, net additions fell to 211,870, a 13% decrease from 2019-20, and new dwelling EPCs fell to 220,730, also a 13% decrease from 2019-20. In 2021-22, net additions increased to 232,820, a 10% increase from 2020-21, although a 4% decrease from the 2019-20 peak, and new dwelling EPCs increased to 239,840, a 9% increase from 2020-21, although a 6% decrease from the 2019-20 peak.

The EPC figures are not a direct comparison with the building control figures shown earlier in this release. However, since 2009-10, the quarterly EPCs lodged for new dwellings have followed a similar trend to quarterly new build dwelling completions. There were 61,190 new dwelling EPCs lodged in England in 2022 Q3, representing a 3% increase when compared to the same quarter last year. Similarly, there were 40,650 new build dwelling completions (not seasonally adjusted) in 2022 Q3, a 1% decrease when compared to the same quarter last year. The number of new dwellings EPCs lodged are higher than the quarterly new build completion figures as they comprise of new builds, conversions and change of use. One of the reasons for the difference between the two sets of figures is partly due to an increase in the number of new dwellings created through change of use.

In 2020, DLUHC also started publishing weekly EPC data because they were judged to be of immediate value to interested parties to help meet the demands for statistics measuring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Weekly data is timelier than the quarterly statistics, but differs from the quarterly figures due to overlaps in the weekly figures. For example, the week commencing 27 June 2022 contains days in June 2022 which would count in the June quarter 2022 as well as containing days in July 2022 which would instead count in the September quarter 2022. Further, at the end of each year, decreases in the weekly EPC series do not necessarily reflect the trends in housing completions as fewer EPCs are lodged in the Christmas period. Following publication, weekly EPC data may also contain certificates that are cancelled or not for issue and will therefore be an overcount. This represents around 2 per cent of weekly EPC data.

There were 70,100 EPCs lodged for new build dwellings in the 13 weeks to the week commencing 5 December 2022, a 6% increase on the 13 weeks to the week commencing 6 December 2021.

As can be seen from Figure 4 below, the 13-week rolling totals closely follow the quarterly series.

Figure 4 Quarterly building control reported new build dwelling completions (not seasonally adjusted), quarterly EPCs lodged for new build dwellings, 13-week rolling EPCs lodged for new build dwellings totals, England, 2019 Q1 to 2022 Q4 (to date)

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4.2 Council Tax Stock of Properties

The Valuation Office Agency (VOA) publishes annual official statistics on the number of domestic properties with a council tax band in England^{[footnote 2]} which includes statistics on the net increase in the stock of domestic properties.

The Council Tax statistics can similarly be compared to the annual ‘Housing supply: net additional dwellings’ release, which is the primary and most comprehensive measure of housing supply. However, it is an approximate comparison as the Council Tax figures include communal accommodation and properties moving between the business rates list and the council tax list (for example, re-classification of holiday lets to a dwelling). This can over or under-estimate net additional dwellings. As with the net additional dwellings figures, the Council Tax stock of properties also includes new build dwellings, conversions and change of use. The Council Tax figures are therefore also not a direct comparison with the building control figures shown earlier in this release.

Net additional dwellings and the change in the Council Tax stock of properties in England have both been steadily increasing from 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively, the low point following the economic downturn, reaching a recent peak in 2019-20. The decrease in 2020-21, may in part, be due to the restrictions introduced in Spring 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021-22, net additions increased to 232,820, a 10% increase from 2020-21 (211,870), although a 4% decrease from the 2019-20 peak (242,700). In 2021-22, the change in Council Tax stock of properties totalled 232,710, a 15% increase from 2020-21 (201,850), although a 5% decrease from the 2019-20 peak (243,720).

Figure 5 Net additional dwellings, annual change in the Council Tax stock of properties, 12-month EPCs lodged for new build dwellings totals, 12-month building control reported new build dwelling completions totals (not seasonally adjusted), England, 2009-10 to 2021-22

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5. Regional figures

In the year to 30 September 2022, starts increased in London, the East Midlands and the East of England from the previous year. The largest percentage increases were 20% in London and 13% in the East Midlands.

Completions increased in the East Midlands, the East of England, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and the East of England from the previous year. The largest percentage increase was 8% in the East Midlands. In London, completions experienced a 32% decrease in the year to 30 September 2022 from the previous year.

As can be seen from Figure 6 below, the highest rates of annual starts per 1,000 dwellings was in the East Midlands and the highest rates of annual completions per 1,000 dwellings was also in the East Midlands.

Figure 6^{[footnote 3]} Starts per 1,000 dwellings (left) and completions per 1,000 dwellings (right), by English region, year to 30 September 2022

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6. New build completions final tenure estimate

The final tenure is the final usage of the new dwelling, whether they are for private ownership, housing associations or local authority housing stock. This is different to the tenure of the developer as private developers also build dwellings for housing associations and local authorities. Since 2006-07, this has been estimated using a modelled approach based on the Affordable Housing Supply Statistics. Further details are in the methodology section below.

In 2021-22, it is estimated that Private Enterprise (new dwellings built for private sale, private renting, and by non-registered providers) delivered 76%, Housing Associations 22% and Local Authorities 2% of total new build dwellings.

Figure 7^{[footnote 4]} New build dwellings completed, by final tenure, England, 1969-70 to 2021-22

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In 2021-22, it is estimated that 47% of the completions delivered through Housing Associations or Local Authorities were under Section 106 (nil grant) agreements.

Figure 8 New build dwellings completed, by final tenure and the number of units whose final tenure is either Housing Association or Local Authorities having been provided under Section 106 (nil grant) agreements, England, 2011-12^{[footnote 5]} to 2021-22

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6.1 Methodology

Prior to 2005-06, the tenure split was estimated using the building control reported data, which reports on the provider type. However, this is not the same as providing an estimate of the final tenure of the dwellings once they are completed since it is not always possible, nor is it the responsibility, of a building control inspector to know the final tenure. This is likely to have caused an over estimation of the supply for private enterprise.

From 2006-07 onwards, net additional dwellings and the affordable housing statistics are used to model the tenure split. The estimated final tenure split uses the total new build completions component from the net additional dwellings statistics and the completions delivered by Housing Associations and Local Authorities from the Affordable housing supply statistical release to estimate the Private Enterprise delivery. This method will be more accurate in providing the final tenure of new housing supply. This series begins at 2006-07 as this is when the new build component in the net additional dwellings estimates was first published.

7. Planning Applications

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) also produces planning applications statistics measuring the number of applications submitted and granted.

7.1 Residential Units

The figures collected by the department are the numbers of decisions on planning applications submitted to local planning authorities, such as the number of homes in the case of housing developments, rather than the number of units included in each application. The department supplements this information by obtaining statistics on housing permissions from a contractor, Glenigan^{[footnote 6]}.

Revisions have been made following a review by Glenigan of the most relevant types of planning approval to be included in the figures to achieve accurate measurement whilst minimising double counting. These figures are provided here to give contextual information to users and have not been designated as National Statistics. Further details are provided in the Planning applications statistical release.

The latest provisional figures show that permission for 286,000 homes was given in the year to 30 September 2022, a 12% decrease from the 325,000 homes granted permission in the year to 30 September 2021.

As can be seen from Table 1 below, the number of housing units granted planning permission show a similar trend to the building control reported starts and completions.

Table 1 Number of housing units granted planning permission, England, annual totals, 30 September 2016 to 30 September 2022

Year Ending	Units Granted	Percentage Change
30-Sep-16	306,000
30-Sep-17	332,000	8%
30-Sep-18	301,000	-9%
30-Sep-19	329,000	9%
30-Sep-20	295,000	-10%
30-Sep-21	325,000	10%
30-Sep-22	286,000	-12%

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When considering the above figures in relation to the central governments ambition of raising housing supply to 300,000 homes per year on average by the mid-2020s, it should be noted that, in practice, many permissions do not result in a home being delivered. This is due to a range of reasons relating to the circumstances of landowners and developers as well as the local and national economy. In addition, i) time lags in building can affect the number of homes built in a particular period; and ii) the methodology used cannot guarantee that all double counting of permissions is removed from the above figures.

8. Accompanying tables and open data

8.1 Tables

Accompanying tables are available to download alongside this release.

8.2 Open data

The EPC statistics are available in fully open and linkable data formats at Open Data Communities.

9. Technical Notes

Please see the accompanying technical notes for further details.

10. Enquiries

Media enquiries: Office hours: 0303 444 1209

Email: NewsDesk@levellingup.gov.uk

Public enquiries and Responsible Statistician: Jade Berry

Email: housing.statistics@levellingup.gov.uk

Information on Official Statistics is available via the UK Statistics Authority website

Information about statistics at DLUHC is available via the Department’s website.

1. Whilst the Energy Performance of Building Certificates statistical release covers England and Wales, the accompanying tables also have data for England and Wales separately. ↩

2. Whilst the Council Tax statistical release covers England and Wales, the accompanying tables also have data for England and Wales separately. ↩

3. Figure 6 shows the number of starts and completions per 1,000 dwellings in each of the 9 English regions over the year to 30 September 2022. To show house building in proportion to the size of each district we divide the number of starts or completions in the year by the existing dwelling stock. The result is multiplied by 1,000 to give a figure that is easier to interpret. For example, a region with 100,000 dwellings where, over the previous year, 570 new dwellings are started would give a value of 5.7 new dwellings per thousand of existing stock and would therefore be shaded in light blue in the coloured map for starts. ↩

4. In Figures 7 and 8, non-registered providers and unknown providers contributing towards affordable housing delivery are included in the Private Enterprise estimate. ↩

5. The Section 106 (nil grant) figures before 2011 are not included as the data were not collected. ↩

6. Glenigan routinely collects data on planning applications submitted to all English local planning authorities and records the information by maintaining a ‘planning application’ for every project. The data have been updated over time as subsequent applications are submitted and decisions made, with all new applications being matched against the existing database at entry stage. This has involved an automated process supplemented by manual checking to identify any further matching project. ↩