Accredited official statistics

About the figures

Published 27 August 2015

This section, ‘About the figures’, provides extra information designed to assist in the interpretation of this release.

The User Guide to Home Office Immigration Statistics additionally provides more detailed information including definitions used, other sources of information, how figures are compiled, data quality and issues arising from figures based on data sourced from an administrative database. The user guide is structured in the same way as ‘About the figures’.

For further information on changes to immigration legislation affecting the statistics, see the Policy and Legislative Changes Timeline published alongside the user guide.

1. Work, Study and Family

There are a range of measures that can be used to monitor those who are subject to immigration control and are coming to the UK for work, study or family reasons. These include:

• grants of visas for entry clearance, providing information on those intending to come
• admissions data, providing information on migrants at the border
• estimates on non-EU immigration from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) on migrants intending to stay for at least a year
• extensions of stay for work, study or family purposes providing information on case work relating to migrants in-country
• settlement data, providing information on the number of people who are granted or refused permission to stay permanently (settlement) which is an indicator of longer term migration
• data from the Migrant Journey Analysis on outcomes (5 years later) of those receiving work, study or family visas

Trends in extensions and in permission to stay permanently will depend on admissions and immigration in previous years.

ONS figures on long-term immigration relate to non-EU nationals whilst other figures (visas, admissions, extensions, permission to stay permanently) relate to non-EEA nationals.

The various statistics and research presented can appear to give different pictures of immigration for work, study or family. Often this is because the latest data for different measures cover different time periods. In addition, they also count different aspects of the immigration process, with some showing intentions or permissions, while others show actual events. The Before Entry section of the User Guide to Home Office Immigration Statistics includes a discussion on the differences between the various data sources presented on immigration.

ONS has conducted a review (see ‘Quality of Long-Term International Migration Estimates from 2001 to 2011’) of the quality of Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) estimates over the decade from 2001 to 2011 which predominantly are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). The review follows research conducted in light of the results of the 2011 Census for England and Wales, which found that the Census-based mid-year population estimate was 464,000 higher than the mid-year population estimates rolled forward from the 2001 Census base. Several possible causes for the difference were cited but it was considered that the ‘largest single cause is most likely to be underestimation of long-term immigration from central and eastern Europe in the middle part of the decade’, ‘Methods used to revise the national population estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2010’,ONS, 2012 (171.1 Kb Pdf). The review extends this work to compare LTIM estimates to further data from the 2011 Census, as well as a range of other data sources across the decade from 2001 to 2011. IPS figures are compared with visa figures in the section briefs for work, study and family. However, the IPS estimates used solely relate to non-EU nationals as visas are not required for EU nationals (or other EEA nationals) visiting the UK.

Data include dependants unless stated otherwise.

IPS and LTIM figures for 2013 are final. All other data from 2014 onwards are provisional.

Figures for admissions and immigration are estimates rounded to the nearest thousand. Figures for immigration in the work, study and family sections relate to non-EU nationals whilst other figures (visas, admissions, extensions) relate to non-EEA nationals.

Work: Recent falls for work-related visas, admissions and immigration are likely to be partly due to policy changes that came into effect from 2011. The Post-Study work route was closed to new applications on 6 April 2012 but existing applications continued to be processed after this date. From December 2010, Tier 1 General was closed to applicants who are outside the UK and it was closed to migrants who were already in the UK, in most immigration categories, from April 2011. Details of these policy changes, together with information on changes to immigration legislation affecting the statistics, can be found in the Policy and Legislative Changes Timeline published alongside the user guide. Following the accession of Croatia to the EU on 1 July 2013 similar transitional restrictions to those that previously related to Bulgarians and Romanians were placed on Croatians working in the UK. A link to more information on these restrictions can be found in the user guide.

Study: Data for visas and admissions exclude student visitors unless stated otherwise. The student visitor category provides for persons who wish to come to the UK as a visitor and undertake a short period of study. Visa data on student visitors include those who applied on the ‘short-term student’ endorsement prior to the introduction of the ‘student visitor’ endorsement in September 2007. For admissions short-term students may have been classified as visitors prior to September 2007; for consistency and comparability over time they are excluded from study-related totals.

Family: The numbers of applications and decisions made reflect changes in levels of immigration over time, as well as policy and legislative changes, including changes to immigration legislation. The availability and allocation of resources within UK Visas and Immigration can also affect the number of decisions on applications. In July 2012, changes were made to the family Immigration Rules which apply to applications made on or after 9 July 2012. It is not possible to identify separately applications made under the previous and new rules. Spouse, partner and child applications which fell for refusal solely because they did not meet the new minimum income threshold had been subject to a hold on decision-making following a High Court judgment in July 2013. On 11 July 2014 the Court of Appeal upheld the lawfulness of the minimum income threshold for spouses/partners and children applying in the family route. From 28 July 2014, the 4,000 individuals whose applications (visa or extension) were then on hold, pending the Court of Appeal judgment, will receive a decision.

More detailed analysis on family visas and extensions and additional tables for years ending June were included in the ‘Immigration Statistics July to September 2014’ release to assist users in understanding the trends in family data before and after the changes to the Immigration Rules in July 2012.

2. Visas and sponsorship

Before travelling to the UK, a person may be required to apply for and be granted an entry clearance visa, depending on their nationality, purpose of visit and intended length of stay. On arrival at UK ports, or UK border controls in France and Belgium (often termed ‘juxtaposed’ controls), all individuals have to satisfy a Border Force officer that they have the right to enter the country before being admitted to the UK.

The data in this section include dependants and exclude those visiting the UK or in transit, unless stated otherwise.

Data for visas prior to 2005 are not comparable. All figures for the first two quarters of 2015 are provisional.

EEA nationals do not require an entry clearance visa. Two-hundred-and-seventy-one visas were recorded as granted to EEA nationals in 2013, with 249 of these recorded as nationals of Cyprus, but most likely these people are from the area not under the effective control of the Republic of Cyprus. The ‘Visas’ data tables and section of the User Guide to Home Office Immigration Statistics provide more information.

3. Admissions

All people admitted are subject to immigration control except British, other European Economic Area (EEA) and Swiss nationals.

Most data in this briefing are rounded to 3 significant figures. All data include dependants.

For arriving passengers subject to immigration control, who have previously obtained leave to enter, the journey is recorded as ‘returning after a temporary absence abroad’ within the ‘other’ category. Due to the volume of passengers arriving at Heathrow and Gatwick some data are estimated from monthly samples.

Some major components of the total (visitors, passengers returning and passengers in transit) reflect, to a large extent, trends in international tourism. The number of other admissions (for example, for work, study or family reasons) are likely to reflect trends in international migration and related policy and legislative changes affecting those subject to immigration control, for example changes in immigration legislation, enlargement of the European Union, and the introduction of the Points-Based System for work and study in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Total passenger arrival data are available up to the year ending June 2015 (Table ad 01 q); data on the purpose of journey (e.g. visit, work, study; Table ad 02 q); and data for individual nationalities are available up to the end of 2014 (Tables ad 02 and ad 03).

Further information on visitors to the UK is published by the Office for National Statistics in ‘Overseas Travel and Tourism - Monthly Release, Provisional Results for May 2015’.

The refusal of entry to passengers relates to non-asylum cases dealt with at ports of entry.

4. Asylum

This briefing excludes numbers of dependants, unless stated otherwise. One person (the main applicant) can apply for asylum on behalf of themselves and others (dependants).

All data, except data on asylum support, from 2014 onwards are provisional.

The method for processing figures for asylum support changed from the first quarter of 2013. Since 2013, figures have been produced using a new method which facilitates access to the data for data quality purposes and improved reconciliation with administrative records. The data source for both new and previous methods remains the same. Caution should be taken when comparing earlier data with figures from the first quarter of 2013 onwards, as the figures are not directly comparable.

The table for non-suspensive appeals has been redesigned to provide more detailed information and clarity of definitions. ‘Total eligible for the non-suspensive appeals process’ includes main applicants who have been refused asylum, humanitarian protection (HP) or discretionary leave (DL) where the refusal was certified as clearly unfounded. Previously this category included a broader definition; main applicants refused asylum, HP or DL.

5. Extensions of stay

EEA nationals are not subject to immigration control so are not included in these figures. When a country joins the EU its nationals are no longer included in these figures e.g. Bulgarian and Romanian nationals are not included from 2007 onwards.

The data in this briefing include dependants, except where stated otherwise, and take account of the outcomes of reconsiderations and appeals. All figures from 2014 onwards are provisional.

The numbers of applications and decisions made reflect changes over time in levels of immigration, as well as policy and legislative changes, including changes to immigration legislation and changes to the length of leave granted (either for initial entry clearance or for subsequent extensions). The availability and allocation of resources within the Home Office can also affect the number of decisions.

Data on migration applications decided within published standards, and the cost per decision for all permanent and temporary migration applications are published as Official Statistics by the Home Office as part of their performance data. Details are given on the GOV.UK website at Migration transparency data.

A short statistical article on ‘Extensions of stay by previous category’ has also been published alongside the Immigration Statistics April to June 2013 release to provide further detailed information.

6. Settlement

EEA nationals are not subject to immigration control and so are not included in these figures. When a country joins the EU its nationals are no longer included in these figures e.g. Bulgarian and Romanian nationals are not included from 2007 onwards.

The numbers of applications and decisions about permission to permanently stay reflect changes over time in levels of those entering the country, as well as policy and legislative changes. These may affect the number of people potentially eligible to permanently stay. The availability and allocation of resources within the Home Office can also affect the number of decisions.

All the figures include spouses and dependants, unless stated otherwise. All data from 2014 onwards are provisional.

From 2003 onwards, dependants of EEA and Swiss nationals in confirmed relationships may be shown separately in figures on issues and refusals of permanent residence documents, rather than in figures about settlement. Figures on issues and refusals of permanent residence documentation to EEA nationals and their family members are shown in EEA table ee 02. Further information can be found in the Family section.

Data on migration applications decided within published standards, the cost per decision for all permanent and temporary migration applications are published as Official Statistics by the Home Office as part of their immigration performance data. Details are given on the Migration transparency data webpage.

Migrant journey analysis is able to look at those who apply for settlement or indefinite leave to remain (ILR) and which visas they used to arrive at that point. This analysis shows that the proportion of settlement grants made to people who initially arrived on a temporary visa rose between 2009 and 2013. For example, those originally entering the UK on a student visa comprised 11% of settlement grants in 2009 and 19% in 2013. Source: Home Office, Migrant Journey Fifth Report.

7. Citizenship

There are no separate figures for dependants because all applications for citizenship are from individuals treated as applicants in their own right (including those made on the basis of a relationship with an existing British citizen). The data also reflect the outcome of reconsidered decisions. All data from 2014 onwards are provisional.

Citizenship is granted under the British Nationality Act 1981 which came into force on 1 January 1983, subsequently amended by the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002.

The number of applications and decisions made reflect changes over time in levels of those entering the country, as well as policy and legislative changes, which, for example, may affect the number of people potentially eligible to apply. The availability and allocation of resources within the Home Office can also affect the number of decisions.

8. Detention

Children are those recorded as being under 18 years of age. All data from 2014 onwards are provisional.

The information on detainees held in prison establishments in England and Wales solely under Immigration Act Powers has been supplied by the National Offender Management Service (an Executive Agency of the Ministry of Justice). It is based on weekly manual returns from individual prisons, which, as with any large-scale manual recording system, is subject to possible error(s) with individual data entry and processing.

9. Removals and voluntary departures

Numbers of enforced removals include people deported. Deportations are a subset of departures which are enforced either following a criminal conviction or when it is judged that a person’s removal from the UK is in the public’s interest; a person who has received a deportation order is not allowed to return to the UK, unless the order is cancelled. Most illegal immigrants are removed from the UK under administrative or illegal entry powers and not deported. Published information on those deported from the UK is not separately available.

As the data-matching for the other confirmed voluntary departures is undertaken retrospectively this means these figures are particularly subject to greater upward revision than would be the case for other categories of departure. In the light of the high use of retrospective data-matching to check departures, figures are reviewed each quarter to decide whether they require revision. Figures for notified voluntary departures and other confirmed voluntary departures are revised for two consecutive quarters.

In the Immigration Statistics October to December 2014 quarterly release we highlighted that provisional data-matching figures had been reviewed, following the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration’s Inspection of Overstayers (see 2014 Inspection Reports). Home Office Science worked closely with the data owners to review and revise data. For example, this work addressed inconsistencies in the interpretation of new guidance on the classification of individuals whose leave to remain had been curtailed, but who departed before the expiry of a grace period. As a result of this, the voluntary departures figures were revised.

All data include dependants, unless otherwise stated, and are provisional from 2014 onwards.