Accredited official statistics

Recent changes to visa numbers in Home Office data

Published 23 February 2023

‘Immigration system statistics, year ending December 2022’ contents page.

1. Summary

There are a range of events / developments that are likely to have impacted visa numbers recently (such as coronavirus (COVID-19), and the end of free movement with the EU, alongside policy changes and the introduction of new Protection visas). This means that the Home Office visa statistics at present, include a larger degree of uncertainty around the overall trends.

Global events such as the world recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and international events (war in Ukraine, Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and National Security Law in Hong Kong), along with policy changes introduced as part of the new immigration system and the end of EU freedom of movement, have all had an impact on migration. As a result, we are seeing large increases in numbers of visas granted on some of the most commonly used routes in 2022, with large increases for sponsored study, non-temporary work, as well as on the new humanitarian routes (for people from Ukraine and Afghanistan, and the British National overseas (BN(O) visa route from Hong Kong).

Changes to travel plans caused by the emergence of the pandemic will have led to a higher number of visas being recorded in the most recent period. The reopening of travel opportunities has led to many people changing travel plans, whether for work, study or visits, and in some cases recommencing, or bringing forward journeys they had planned during the pandemic. We saw evidence of this in the spike in passport applications in the UK in 2022 and the strong recovery in air travel shown in the previous Home Office statistical reports on passenger air arrivals. Analysis of Home Office data also suggests that some applications for visas will have been delayed, and some others where travel could not take place repeated, and these may also have caused a higher number of visa applications to be recorded in the most recent periods.

The end of free movement is likely to have had an impact on EU migration, and in turn, non-EU migrants (who require a visa) may fill some of the work and study places previously taken by EU migrants (who may not have required a visa). Other policy changes, such as the expansion of Skilled Work and Health and Care routes, seasonal work and the Graduate route will have increased the attraction of a UK visa.

It is difficult to unpick the extent to which each of these factors is contributing to the current increase in both visa applications and grants, and to understand the longer-term intentions of travellers. For example, whether they might remain in the UK longer-term or leave again. This is apparent in both the main visa routes for work and study as well as protection routes, for example, in the extent to which Ukrainians in the UK might return home in 2023. It may also take some time before the effects from the pandemic are seen to balance out in the data.

2. Visa trends since the pandemic

Figure 1: Visa grants (non-EU nationals) for the visa types that have seen the most notable increases from 2019 to 2022

Source: Entry clearance visa applications and outcomes - Vis_D02

Notes:

1. To ensure the timeseries is comparable, EU (including EEA and Swiss) nationals are excluded from the chart as they did not require visas to work or study in the UK prior to the end of the transition period on 1 January 2021. A small number of EU nationals (as family members) may have been issued BN(O) or Ukraine scheme visas and these are included in the chart.

2. ‘Skilled work’ refers to the ‘Tier 2 – General’ visa and its successors, the ‘Skilled Worker’ and ‘Skilled Worker – Health and Care’ visas.

Figure 1 shows that between 2020 and 2022, for non-EU nationals, there has been a 372% increase to main applicants and dependants for ‘Skilled work’ grants and a 161% increase for sponsored study grants. It also shows the introduction of the Ukraine visa scheme in 2022, under which 210,832 new visas were granted. In contrast, the number of main applicants and dependants granted a BN(O) visa route decreased 29% in 2022 compared to 2021, when the scheme first opened.

There is evidence to suggest that the pandemic caused some students to delay travel before coming to the UK. Similar effects may be seen to a lesser degree for other visa categories. Although our analysis is unable to address these, there will have been similar effects on the plans of British citizens and migrants with a settled status (such as those on the EU Settlement Scheme) to travel abroad or return home to the UK.

3. Student travel patterns during the pandemic

An analysis of Home Office data suggests that less than 1% of student visas with a start date from 2017 to 2019, prior to the pandemic, went unused. This proportion of unused visas grew during the pandemic, and around 7% (14,000) of visas with a start date in 2020 and 3% (13,000) for 2021 were unused. This implies that around 27,000 of those granted visas did not (or could not) come to the UK during the pandemic.

There is also evidence that some post-pandemic visa grants may have been repeat applications by the same individual. Of the 14,000 students with an unused visa in 2020, 30% were granted another visa in 2021 – a much higher proportion than 2018, when just 11% of those with unused visas were granted again in 2019.

Not all visas issued were used to travel to the UK. Our analysis suggests that only about 41% of those issued a subsequent (for example, second) visa in the following year actually used it. This also suggests a small number of students who intended to come to the UK during 2020 did not (or could not) subsequently come in 2021. It remains to be seen if more of those who were issued with a visa but did not use it arrive in 2022, as global travel continues to return to ‘normality’. However, further analysis needs to be undertaken to see if the data continues to follow this trend during 2023.

Figure 2: Sponsored study grants trends, years ending June 2018 to June 2022

Source: Entry clearance visa applications and outcomes - Vis_D02

There is also evidence of students delaying their arrival, with a greater proportion potentially being recorded in 2022 than would normally be the case in a more typical academic year. Figure 2 indicates the peak in student applications granted moving slightly later (from August to September) and this could tip the balance for annual estimates based on the year ending September, causing slightly more of the following year’s student group to be recorded in the year ending September 2022, and again in the following year. The effect will be impossible to isolate but should become clearer if numbers re-balance over the coming years.

4. Evidence from higher education data on migrant student trends

Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data is an important measure of foreign students, although they are currently only published in retrospect so cannot provide an indication of current numbers. The latest available HESA data suggests that the total number of international students studying in the UK grew 9% during the pandemic, between the academic years 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021, from 556,985 to 605,130 international students studying in the UK per year, of whom 152,905 were EU nationals and 452,225 were non-EU nationals. This increase continued in the academic year 2021 to 2022, with 679,970 international students, made up of 559,825 non-EU nationals and 120,140 EU nationals. This translates into an increase of 24% for non-EU nationals but a decrease of 21% for EU nationals compared to the previous year. In contrast, the change in the number of non-EU sponsored study visas over a similar period (the year ending June 2022), was 54% compared to year ending June 2021. Some of the increase is likely due to Brexit changing the rules for studying in the UK, with EU students now needing visas to study and paying international student fees. Overall, this balances out to a 12% increase in all international students between academic years 2020 to 2021 and 2021 to 2022, considerably less than the percentage increases we see in the numbers of visas being granted.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, HESA data showed steady growth year-on-year for non-UK student enrolments, primarily from non-EU nationals who increased from 312,795 for the 2016 to 2017 academic year to 409,065 (+31%) for the 2019 to 2020 academic year. Visa data shows a similar steady growth for non-EU students over this period, increasing from 190,997 grants in the year ending June 2016, to 239,271 (+25%) in the year ending June 2019.

Table 1: Higher education student enrolments by domicile, academic year ending July 2017 to year ending July 2022

Domicile	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
EU	138,040	142,840	146,565	147,925	152,905	120,140	Not announced
Non-EU	312,795	326,315	349,545	409,065	452,225	559,825	Not announced
Total Non-UK	450,835	469,160	496,110	556,985	605,130	679,970	Not announced

Source: Higher Education Student Data, HE student enrolments by domicile

As well as showing an increase in the total student population, HESA data shows that there were 380,000 new ‘first year’ enrolments (students who started their programme of study, including undergraduate and postgraduate courses) in the 2021 to 2022 academic year, a 15% increase compared to the previous academic year, where there were 330,000 new student enrolments. Over this period, new non-EU enrolments increased by 85,000 and new EU enrolments decreased by 35,000.

In the year ending June 2022 (which aligned with the academic year 2021 to 2022), sponsored study visas granted to main applicants showed a strong recovery, increasing by 63% compared to the previous year, and increasing by 70% compared to the year ending September 2019 (pre-pandemic).

Table 2: Sponsored study visas to the UK (main applicants), years ending June 2016 to June 2022

	YE Jun 16	YE Jun 17	YE Jun 18	YE Jun 19	YE Jun 20	YE Jun 21	YE Jun 22
Applications	201,707	210,695	219,945	241,945	239,185	259,265	424,371
Grants	191,002	200,997	211,796	239,271	237,898	249,645	405,779

Source: Entry clearance visa applications and outcomes - Vis_D01 & Vis_D02

Notes:

1. The table shows data for year ending June periods as these align more closely with the academic year.

For further details see ‘Why do people come to the UK? To study.’

5. Other changes in travel patterns

Over time, increases in temporary migration of longer than a year are likely to result in a proportionate increase in outflows as people leave the country as their visa expires. Home Office migrant journey statistics show that only a minority of students and skilled workers remain in the UK longer-term and seek to settle. Around 83% of those with a sponsored study visa and 73% of those on a work visa in 2016 did not hold valid leave 5 years later (most of whom will have left the UK). The introduction of the Graduate route may attract more students to apply to study in the UK, with an intention to remain after their studies, but the numbers of visas issued under the graduate route extension (72,893 main applicants in the year ending December 2022) are currently only a small proportion of the total number of applications for student visas.

For further details see ‘How many people continue their stay in the UK or apply to stay permanently?’

6. Additional impacts from immigration policy changes

There will have been increases in visa numbers for work due to similar changes in policies, such as the introduction of the new immigration system, including the Skilled Work and Health and Care routes.

Additional increases in foreign student numbers may come as a result of new relationships being developed with specific countries, or through the UK International Education Strategy.

At present it is not possible to disentangle the impact of the pandemic from wider policy changes. Monitoring Home Office visa and extensions data as well as higher education enrolment data from HESA will enable us to unpick some of this but only over the course of the year.

7. Further increases in visas linked to protection routes

In addition to policy changes, there have also been large numbers of people granted visas this year under the new humanitarian routes (such as Ukraine and Hong Kong BN(O) visas). It is not known whether the demand for humanitarian visas will continue at the same level as we have seen recently, but numbers in both the Ukrainian and BN(O) schemes have reduced significantly following the peaks that followed their launch, and so numbers over future quarters may be at much lower levels, depending on world events.