Official Statistics

Justice Data Lab statistics: October 2021

Tailored reports assessing the impact on rehabilitation programmes on reoffending behaviour analysed within the previous quarter, and summary of results to date.

Documents

RESOLVE Supplementary Appendix

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RESOLVE Descriptive Statistics Annex

Justice Data Lab General Annex

Details

The report is released by the Ministry of Justice and produced in accordance with arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority. For further information about the Justice Data Lab, please refer to the following guidance.

Key findings this quarter

One report is being published this quarter: Resolve accredited programme supplementary appendix.

Note: the original impact evaluation of the prison-based Resolve offending behaviour programme is included in Justice Data Lab statistics: January 2021.

Resolve accredited programme (supplementary appendix)

RESOLVE is an accredited programme designed and delivered by Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS). The programme is a cognitive-behavioural therapy-informed offending behaviour programme which aims to improve outcomes related to violence in adult males who are of a medium risk of reoffending.

The aim of this appendix is to provide analysis and descriptive statistics to supplement the findings from the original impact evaluation published in January 2021, which assessed the impact of prison-based RESOLVE on proven reoffending.

The analyses presented here include an additional proven reoffending measure, based on the violent offence classification used for the OASys Violence Predictor. When selecting RESOLVE participants, important factors in the eligibility criteria include a violent offence in the previous two years and/or OASys Violence Predictor scores within a specified range. As such, filtering reoffences by the set of OASys Violence Predictor offences provides an alternative outcome to measure programme impact. This measure incorporates a broader range of offences, including some less serious violent offences, than the violent reoffending measure used in the original evaluation, providing further insight into programme impact.

The headline two-year results for the additional proven reoffending measure, OASys Violence Predictor reoffences, did not show that the programme had a statistically significant effect on a person’s reoffending behaviour.

Further analyses on OASys Violence Predictor reoffences were also conducted to examine the specific effects of RESOLVE on two sub-groups, again over the two-year follow-up period. The ‘programme integrity broadly maintained (2016-2019 assessment)’ sub-group were statistically significantly less likely to reoffend than those who did not take part. When combined with the original published analysis this suggests that quality of programme delivery can be an important factor when reducing proven reoffending. There were no statistically significant findings among the ‘ideal suitability’ sub-group.

Justice Data Lab service: available reoffending data

Organisations can submit information on the individuals they were working with between 2002 and the end of 2019.

Pre-release access

The bulletin is produced and handled by the Ministry’s analytical professionals and production staff. Pre-release access of up to 24 hours is granted to the following persons: Ministry of Justice Secretary of State, 2 Ministers of State, Permanent Secretary, Director General of Policy and Strategy Group, Director General for Prisons, Director General for Probation, Chief Financial Officer, Head of News, Deputy Head of News, Chief Press Officer, 18 policy and analytical advisers for reducing reoffending and rehabilitation policy, special advisors, 4 press officers, and 4 private secretaries.

Updates to this page

Published 14 October 2021

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