Official Statistics

Annex: analysis of modern slavery NRM referrals from asylum, small boats and detention cohorts

Updated 11 July 2024

1. Introduction

This analysis explores the different types of people who enter the National Referral Mechanism (NRM), the Home Office’s identification framework for all potential victims of modern slavery. While we have a good understanding of who is in the NRM^{[footnote 1]}, there remain gaps in how these individuals interact with the immigration system. Existing Home Office releases look at small boat arrivals referred to the NRM^{[footnote 2]}, and issues raised by those in detention^{[footnote 3]}. These show that while the proportion of NRM referrals from small boat arrivals has remained relatively steady, increasing proportions from certain populations detained for return are being referred to the NRM. This study builds on that by bringing together analysis on the extent to which people claiming asylum, people arriving on a small boat and people detained for return are also referred into the NRM^{[footnote 4]}.

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour^{[footnote 5]}. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK that come to the attention of authorised ‘first responder’ organisations are referred to the NRM^{[footnote 6]}. First responders include the police, local authorities and Home Office agencies. The Home Office aims to make an initial decision of whether there are reasonable grounds to believe that an individual is a victim of modern slavery within 5 days of the NRM referral. Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can then access support (including accommodation, subsistence, legal aid and counselling), pending a ‘conclusive grounds’ decision on their case. Local authorities support children. Individuals can also benefit from several protections by entering the NRM, one of which for non-British nationals is the protection from removal from the UK until their referral is concluded. As a result, there has been increasing interest in how the NRM interacts with other parts of the Home Office, particularly Immigration Enforcement.

The annual NRM statistics show that 16,938 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the NRM in 2022, a 33% increase on 2021, and a 230% increase since 2017. The number of NRM decision makers has not kept pace with increasing referrals, resulting in conclusive grounds decision times increasing from an average of 238 days in 2017 to 543 days in 2022. The combination of the increase in decision-making times and the protections offered to those awaiting a decision (such as, protection from removal) has led to concerns that the NRM is being used to facilitate people remaining in the UK, or to frustrate removal from the country. Moreover, in most cases it is not appropriate to detain the person while awaiting a conclusive grounds decision^{[footnote 7]}.

Within this analysis, the following groups are considered:

• NRM referrals: all people referred into the NRM because they are potential victims of modern slavery
• asylum claimants: all people who arrive in the UK and make an asylum claim
• small boat arrivals: those arriving on small boats^{[footnote 8]} who have come to the attention of the authorities
• different groups of individuals awaiting return from the UK: foreign national offenders (FNOs) liable to deportation, other people detained for administrative removal, and people detained for return after arriving on small boats

2. Key findings

From January to September 2022, people arriving via small boats were of similar likelihood to be referred into the NRM (about 7%) to those referred from the asylum population (about 9%). However, people detained for removal, especially after arriving on a small boat (65%), were more likely to be referred to the NRM.

Figure 1 shows the relative sizes of the populations of interest and the number/proportion of people entering the NRM during January to September 2022^{[footnote 9]}. During this same period, 12,520 people were referred into the NRM with the majority (74%; 9,254) of those being subject to immigration controls. The proportion of NRM referrals subject to immigration controls^{[footnote 10]} has remained broadly similar since 2017^{[footnote 11]}.

Figure 1: Number of people in specific group of interest and the number/proportion who made an NRM claim (January to September 2022)^{[footnote 12]}

Source: See ‘Data and methodology’ section.

In the period of analysis (January to September 2022):

• over 63,000 people claimed asylum, of whom 9% (5,562) were referred into the NRM
• of those who arrived on small boats (just over 33,000 people), 7% (2,458) were referred to the NRM^{[footnote 13]}
• of the 3,454 people who received a first deportation decision after being convicted of a criminal offence and receiving a custodial prison sentence, 13% (466) have been referred to the NRM while liable to deportation. The number and proportion of referrals are very likely to rise^{[footnote 14]}
• a further 1,900 people were referred to the NRM while detained for administrative removal (41% of the 4,590 detentions in the period); of the 1,305 people detained for return after arriving on a small boat, 65% were referred (842 people)

This analysis shows that people who have been detained are more likely to be referred to the NRM than people claiming asylum or arriving in the UK on a small boat. However, it is important to note that NRM referrals can be made at any time after arrival into the country, therefore figures for NRM referrals in any year of arrival are likely to increase over time. Given that the period we are considering here is relatively recent, it is likely that the numbers and proportions would increase if updated now due to this lag.

3. How many people entering the NRM are subject to immigration controls?

In the period January to September 2022, 9,254 people entering the NRM were subject to immigration controls, making up 74% of all individuals referred into the NRM.

People subject to immigration controls are of particular interest due to the impact and timeliness an NRM outcome can have on other decisions the Home Office may be required to undertake, such as an asylum decision or enforcement action.

In recent years, the proportion of NRM referrals subject to immigration controls has stayed relatively stable. Of the referrals during January to September 2022, 74% were subject to immigration controls, compared to 75% for the same period in 2017^{[footnote 15]}. This is despite the large increase in people referred into the NRM, which increased by 34% to 12,520 during January to September 2022, from 9,375 during January to September 2021.

However, there was a change in this pattern between 2017 and 2019. The proportion of NRM referrals subject to immigration controls fell slightly from 75% to 70% and those not subject to immigration controls rose. This latter increase was predominantly driven by British children being criminally exploited^{[footnote 16]}.

Figure 2: NRM referrals for people subject to immigration control, and proportion of all NRM referrals where the person was subject to immigration controls, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

4. How many people making an asylum claim enter the NRM?

In the period January to September 2022, 9% (5,562) of all asylum claimants were referred to the NRM. Between 2017 and September 2022, the annual proportion of asylum claimants referred to the NRM has not exceeded 14%. Between 2017 and 2019, the average proportion of asylum claimants referred to the NRM was 11%.

People making an asylum claim can be referred to the NRM as a potential victim of modern slavery. This referral may happen at any point following an asylum claim, therefore the numbers and proportions discussed here could still increase.

During January to September 2022, there were 63,032 asylum claimants. Figure 3 shows how many people have made an asylum claim, and whether they were referred to the NRM. During January to September 2021 and January to September 2022, the number of asylum claimants entering the NRM has increased by 38%, from 4,030 to 5,562, but the percentage of NRM referrals has decreased from 12% to 9%^{[footnote 17]}.

NRM referrals can be made at anytime, meaning that they may increase over time, therefore it is helpful to look at historical data of when NRM referrals are made. These historical records suggest that half (50%) of asylum claimants referred to the NRM are referred within 20 days of their asylum claim, while others can take several months. Moreover, between 2017 and 2020, in the region of 11% and 14% of asylum claimants were also referred to the NRM. This has not increased or been consistently exceeded, even with increases in the numbers of asylum claims. This suggests that the increase in the number of NRM referrals reflects an increase in asylum claims rather than a change in the behaviour of asylum seekers.

Figure 3: Number of asylum claimants (people) with NRM referrals, and proportion of asylum claimants in each quarter who have so far been referred to the NRM, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

5. How many people who arrived on small boats enter the NRM?

In the period January to September 2022, 2,458 of the people who arrived on small boats entered the NRM, equivalent to 7% of all small boat arrivals.

One of the most common known routes of irregular entry into the country at present is small boats. Small boat arrivals were rare prior to 2019, with just 1,843 people arriving via this route in 2019. In contrast, the number of people arriving via a small boat increased by 93%; from 17,084 during January to September 2021 to 33,029 during January to September 2022^{[footnote 18]}. People arriving on small boats made up 84% of detected attempts to enter the UK irregularly (up from 76% in the same period in 2021)^{[footnote 19]}.

As with those making an asylum claim, individuals arriving on small boats may be referred to the NRM. Similarly, a referral into the NRM may happen at any point following arrival on a small boat, therefore the numbers and proportions discussed here could still increase.

During January to September 2022, 2,458 of the people who arrived on small boats entered the NRM, a relatively small proportion at 7% of arrivals. This number has increased from 1,564 during January to September 2021 (9% of arrivals). As with the increase in the number of asylum claimants, this suggests that the increase in the number of small boat arrivals referred to the NRM reflects an overall increase in small boats rather than a change in behaviour of those individuals referred.

Figure 4: Number of people detected arriving in the UK via small boats referred into the NRM, and proportion of people arriving via small boat in each quarter who have so far been referred to the NRM, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

6. How many people entering the NRM and subject to immigration controls claim asylum and arrive on a small boat?

In the period January to September 2022, 6,701 (73%) people who entered the NRM and were subject to immigration controls also made an asylum claim, and 2,658 (29%) people who entered the NRM and were subject to immigration controls had arrived into the UK on a small boat.

In January to September 2022, 74% of individuals referred to the NRM were subject to immigration controls. Here we explain in more detail how NRM referrals are made up of people subject to immigration controls, people who are asylum claimants, and people who arrived in the country in small boats. There is overlap in these different populations, with most small boat arrivals also claiming asylum. This is presented in Figures 5 and 6.

As shown previously, a relatively small proportion of individuals with asylum claims, and small boat arrivals, are referred to the NRM. However, because of the relatively small number of NRM referrals (12,520 in January to September 2022), asylum claimants and small boat arrivals make up an increasing proportion of all NRM referrals.

During January to September 2022, asylum claimants made up 73% of NRM referrals subject to immigration control (6,701 people), compared to 66% (4,010 people) in the same period in 2021, and 84% (2,264 people) in the same period in 2017.

The overlapping population of small boat arrivals shows that in January to September 2022, small boat arrivals made up 29% of NRM referrals (2,658 people), compared to 18% of NRM referrals in the same period in 2021 (1,067 people). In 2019 (the earliest time point we can compare to with small boats, given the small numbers prior to that), 1% (39 people) of NRM referrals came from small boat arrivals. This increase in part reflects the increase in arrivals on small boats since 2019.

This analysis demonstrates that the behaviour of asylum claimants and those arriving on small boats (noting overlap in those cohorts) does not appear to be drastically changing (demonstrated by the consistency in the proportion of those populations who are referred to the NRM). However, these populations are increasing within the NRM as a number and a proportion of all NRM referrals (for small boat arrivals only), placing increasing demands on the NRM system.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals for asylum claimants (people) subject to immigration control, and proportion of NRM referrals for people subject to immigration controls who also made an asylum claim, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals for small boat arrivals (people) subject to immigration control, and proportion of NRM referrals for people subject to immigration controls who also arrived via small boat, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

7. How many people enter the NRM while awaiting return?

In the period January to September 2022, 585 FNOs were referred to the NRM while liable to deportation. The referral rate for FNOs who received a first deportation decision in this period was 13%, and very likely to rise.

In the same period, a further 1,900 people were referred to the NRM while in detention awaiting administrative removal (41% of detentions). Of those who entered the UK on small boats (a subset of these 2 cohorts), 842 people were referred to the NRM while detained for return (65% of detentions).

People subject to immigration controls can be referred into the NRM at any point after entering the country. In recent years there has been an increase in the number and proportion of people referred to the NRM while awaiting return^{[footnote 20]}. As set out above, a referral to the NRM protects the person from return until after a modern slavery decision is made and, in most cases, the person is released from detention for the recovery and reflection period and conclusive grounds decision process^{[footnote 21]}. This suggests that the prospect of having to leave the UK may act as a trigger for people to raise issues related to modern slavery, or that enforcement processes may help first responders identify potential victims.

The analysis below considers 2 main cohorts – FNOs liable to deportation and people detained for administrative removal^{[footnote 22]}. These 2 groups total 2,485 referrals between January and September 2022, which account for most of the immigration enforcement related referrals^{[footnote 23]}. To get a sense of how many immigration enforcement related referrals there are, we can look at the total number of referrals into the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA). The IECA was introduced in November 2021 specifically to deal with adult NRM referrals who are also in the returns process^{[footnote 24]}. During January to September 2022, the IECA received 2,969 of the total 12,520 referrals in the period (24%).

This section also separately considers people detained for return after arriving on a small boat. This cohort is a subset of the other 2 cohorts and is included due to a general interest in this sub-cohort.

7.1 Foreign national offenders (FNOs) liable to deportation

FNOs are generally liable to deportation if convicted of an offence in the UK and sentenced to a period of imprisonment of at least 12 months, or where the Secretary of State deems their deportation to be conducive to the public good, such as, with persistent offenders, offenders who have caused serious harm, and people convicted of offences outside of the UK and considered a threat to the public.

During January to September 2022, 585 FNOs were referred to the NRM while liable to deportation, and 905 people were referred in 2021.

The deportation process can span many years and people can be referred to the NRM at any point during the process, including: (i) while held on remand awaiting trial or sentencing; (ii) while serving a custodial prison sentence; (iii) while in immigration detention awaiting return; or (iv) while released on bail but still liable to deportation. Some of these 585 people were referred at the beginning of the deportation process, and some had been liable to deportation for several years before being referred. As a result, we cannot accurately express this figure as a percentage.

To give an indication of the proportion of FNOs referred to the NRM, we can look at everyone who received a first deportation decision in each year, and count the number referred to the NRM at any subsequent point in the deportation process. During January to September 2022, 3,454 people received a first deportation decision, and 13% have so far been referred to the NRM (466 people). This percentage is very likely to rise as many people who received their first deportation decision recently will still be serving their sentence or awaiting deportation, and so those who have not been referred may yet do so as they approach the point of deportation. The referral rate varies by nationality, with 23% of non-EU nationals being referred (426 out of 1,882 people), but only 3% of EU nationals (40 out of 1,572 people).

Figure 7: Number of FNOs referred to the NRM while liable to deportation, and proportion of FNOs who received a first deportation decision in each quarter who have so far been referred, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

Notes:

1. The numbers for the later quarters will increase over time. Many people who received their first deportation decision recently will still be serving their sentence or awaiting deportation, and so those who have not been referred may yet do so as they approach the point of deportation. Therefore, the apparent levelling and decrease in the referral rate in 2021 and 2022 should not be interpreted as NRM referrals becoming less common. Similarly, the referral numbers for the most recent quarters are also likely to rise, as some people referred to the NRM at this time may not yet be recognised as FNOs awaiting deportation – for example, where a person was referred to the NRM while on remand or early on in their custodial sentence, and an initial deportation decision had not yet been made at the time the data were extracted.

7.2 People detained for administrative removal

People may be detained for administrative removal if they have overstayed their leave to remain, breached the terms of their leave (for example, by working illegally), entered the country irregularly, or had their leave to remain curtailed.

During January to September 2022, 4,590 people were detained for administrative removal (excluding people detained on arrival at a UK port). Of these, 41% were then referred to the NRM while in detention (1,900 people), with almost all subsequently released from detention (1,886 people).

Figure 8: Number of people referred to the NRM while detained for administrative removal, and proportion of detentions during which a referral was made, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

7.3 People detained for return after arriving on a small boat

This cohort is a subset of the previous 2 groups – people ‘detained for return after arriving on a small boat’ are also counted as ‘people detained for administrative removal’, except for a few people who were FNOs and so are instead counted as ‘FNOs liable to deportation’. However, the cohort is included here separately due to the current interest in people arriving on small boats.

In 2021, 404 people were detained for return after arriving in the UK on a small boat, 294 (73%) of whom were referred to the NRM while in detention. During January to September 2022, 1,305 people were detained for return, leading to an even greater number of referrals to the NRM (842 people), albeit a slightly smaller proportion (65%). This is a large increase from earlier years, where just 6% of the 831 people detained for return in 2019 were referred to the NRM while in detention (50 people). So far, only a minority of people who arrived on small boats have been detained for return, but if enforcement activity is expanded and this rate of referral continues, then the number of referrals could be substantially higher.

Figure 9: Number of people referred to the NRM while detained for return after arriving on a small boat, and proportion of detentions during which a referral was made, by quarter

Source: See Data and methodology section.

8. Data and methodology

NRM

Data on all NRM referrals are taken from published data. More details are in the Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics collection.

NRM and immigration control

Data in ‘How many people entering the NRM are subject to immigration controls?’ are taken from internal management information. The data was extracted in March 2023.

The analysis is based on the date of the NRM referral. The nationalities not subject to immigration controls are British, Irish and EU/EAA nationals before the EU exit (unless FNO or not exercising treaty rights). EU/EEA nationals are subject to immigration control since the EU exit. Nationality recorded on the system may be incorrect and lead to a few cases incorrectly not identified as subject to immigration controls.

NRM and asylum

Data in ‘How many people making an asylum claim enter the NRM?’ are taken from internal management information. The data was extracted in March 2023.

The analysis is based on the date of the asylum claim. The NRM referral could have been made in a different time period. The number of asylum claimants in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

NRM and small boats

Data in ‘How many people who arrived on small boats enter the NRM?’ comes from a combination of published and unpublished data.

Data on people arriving on small boats are taken from published data. More details are in the Irregular migration to the UK statistics collection.

Data on NRM referrals from people arriving on small boats are taken from internal management information. The data was extracted on 11 January 2023.

The analysis is based on the date of the small boat arrival. The NRM referral could have been made in a different time period. The number of individuals arriving on a small boat in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

NRM, asylum and small boats

Data in ‘How many people entering the NRM and subject to immigration controls claim asylum and arrive on a small boat?’ are taken from internal management information. The data was extracted in March 2023.

The analysis is based on the date of the NRM referral. The person could have made an asylum claim or arrived on a small boat in a different time period. More details on the availability and reliability of the small boats data are in the ‘About the statistics’ section of the Irregular migration to the UK statistics collection.

NRM while awaiting return

Data on NRM referrals for FNOs liable to deportation, and from people awaiting administrative removal is taken from internal management information. The data was extracted on 20 March 2023.

Details on the data on NRM referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats are in the research report Modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats.

Details on the data on the number of NRM referrals handled by the IECA are in the published modern slavery statistics collection.

The number of individuals liable to deportation in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people approach their date of deportation.

1. Modern slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics collection. ↩

2. Irregular migration to the UK statistics. ↩

3. Modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats report; Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention report. ↩

4. These populations of interest overlap. Some people will appear in more than one of these over the period as they progress through Home Office systems. For example, an individual could enter the country by small boat, claim asylum and be detained for return and therefore may be in all 3 populations. ↩

5. As set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. ↩

6. For more information on referral and first responders see guidance for how to identify and support victims. ↩

7. Caselaw states that a person should only be detained where there is a reasonable prospect of removal within a reasonable timescale (known as the Hardial Singh principles). ↩

8. A ‘small boat’ is one of a number of vessels used by individuals who cross the English Channel, with the aim of gaining entry to the UK without a visa or permission to enter – either directly by landing in the UK or having been intercepted at sea by the authorities and brought ashore. It does not include larger vessels (clandestine or not), those intercepted by French authorities or prevented from leaving France or small boats that go undetected. ↩

9. This time period reflects the point in time that the analysis was carried out. ↩

10. A person who requires leave to enter or remain in the UK (whether or not such leave has been given). ↩

11. Excluding during quarters where coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions saw a drop in the proportion of NRM referrals subject to immigration controls. ↩

12. It is possible that since the date of data extraction, additional referrals will have been made and these numbers/proportions will be higher. See Data and Methodology section for more details. ↩

13. Further referrals may be made if immigration enforcement action is taken against arrivals. ↩

14. Many people who received their first deportation decision in this period will still be serving their prison sentence or awaiting deportation. Therefore, those who have not been referred may still do so as they approach the point of deportation. ↩

15. The proportion dipped to 66% in January to September 2021 which would have been driven by COVID-19 travel restrictions. ↩

16. Modern slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics, July to September 2022. ↩

17. This relates to people who claimed asylum in this period and had a referral to the NRM. ↩

18. Irregular migration to the UK statistics, year ending September 2022. ↩

19. See Irregular migration to the UK statistics, year ending September 2022 for more information about small boat arrivals and other methods of irregular migration. ↩

20. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention report. ↩

21. Caselaw states that a person should only be detained where there is a reasonable prospect of removal within a reasonable timescale (known as the Hardial Singh principles). ↩

22. These groups were selected for consideration/inclusion here as they make up the majority of immigration-enforcement related NRM referrals. Other types of enforcement action will be taken, and these are less likely to involve a referral to the NRM. ↩

23. It does not include referrals from: (i) FNOs in prison liable to administrative removal rather than deportation; (ii) people detained for return on arrival at a UK port; (iii) people encountered on enforcement operations but released without being taken to a residential detention facility (perhaps because issues were raised before reaching detention); or (iv) people subject to enforcement action but not detained (for example people on reporting). ↩

24. See the modern slavery statutory guidance for England and Wales and non-statutory guidance for Scotland and Northern Ireland for information on the cohort of individuals that the IECA make decisions on. ↩