Main findings

This report presents data from August 2023 to October 2024. It includes new data for September and October 2024 and analysis for quarter 3 (July to September) 2024. It also includes revised rates for January to August 2024, due to delayed submissions. For October 2024, data from 28 out of 39 police force areas (PFAs) and 308 out of 367 reported cases contributed to the monthly rates (all cases were used for the quarterly proportions). Data shows that:

• there is no statistically significant difference between suspected suicide rates in October 2024 (directly standardised rate (DSR) of 9.5 deaths per 100,000) compared to September 2024 (10.6 per 100,000), with no evidence of a statistically significant change in recent months
• suspected suicide rates in males (14.4 per 100,000) remain higher than females (5.0 per 100,000), both of which remain similar to the rates in the previous months
• the age group with the highest rate of suspected suicide throughout the reporting period is those aged 45 to 64 (13.3 per 100,000 in October 2024), followed by people aged 25 to 44, then those aged 65 and over, with the lowest rate in those aged 10 to 24 (5.4 per 100,000 in October 2024) - there is no evidence of a statistically significant change compared to recent months in any of these age groups
• the most common method type for deaths by suspected suicide in the latest quarter (July to September 2024) remains ‘hanging, suffocation and strangulation’ (55.2%), followed by ‘poisoning’ (21.6%), ‘jumping or lying in front of a moving object’ (7.2%), ‘fall and fracture’ (5.4%), ‘other’ (4.1%), ‘sharp object’ (3.4%) and drowning’ (3.1%)

Introduction

The purpose of the work is to provide an early warning system for indications of changes in trends in suicide through analysis of data on suspected suicide. This data can inform and enable a more timely and targeted prevention response to changing patterns in suspected suicides at a local and national level.

This report draws upon suspected suicide data from across England supplied by local PFAs submitting to the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) Suicide Prevention Portfolio. The designation ‘suspected suicide’ is provided by the police and the term is used because the cause of death has not yet been confirmed by coroner inquest. When ‘sudden and unexpected’ death occurs, the suspected cause of death is allocated by the attending police officer. There is then a review, based on guidance from the NPCC, before a death is reported as a ‘suspected suicide’.

The report presents data at England level. It includes overall numbers and rates of death by suspected suicide and breaks the data down by age group and sex. This data is presented as monthly DSRs.

The report also includes suspected suicide method, grouped by category. This too has not been confirmed by coroner inquest and should be viewed as provisional. This data is shown as proportions of all suspected suicides and is presented as quarterly figures.  

All data is presented for the most recent available 15 months to enable comparison to the same period in the previous year.

The data outputs from the nRTSSS work programme are primarily for national and local organisations working on suicide prevention.

This report is classified as official statistics in development.

Important to know

To enhance understanding of the report, some important terms and aspects of the work are explained below. Further details on how these terms are defined and used, and on how results were generated, are provided in the methodology section.

Data presented in this report is based on month and year of death occurrence. This differs from ONS suicide statistics which are usually based on date of registration of death. The approach used in this report allows monitoring of monthly and seasonal variation.  

Not all PFAs submit records each month and some PFA submissions are not used in monthly reporting. For records from a PFA to be included, there must be a submission for that month, and it must meet the ‘observed compared to expected’ criteria. This means the number of deaths by suspected suicide are comparable with the number that would be expected, based on recent deaths by suicide for that area (as collected by ONS).  

Data about method is presented by quarter, because the number of method groups would lead to small number suppression if presented monthly. All records received are included in quarterly presentation. The actual number of deaths for each method group are available in the data tables.

Data is presented for a 15 month period to enable comparison to the same months in the previous year. This is because in England there is some evidence of seasonal differences in suicide rates, with higher rates for males between April and June, and for females in the first half of the year.

The monthly data is presented as age DSRs to enable comparison between groups and over time.

Due to relatively small numbers, identified trends in deaths may not have statistical significance. Within this report, where a change is viewed as potentially important, comments are included in the text accompanying the figure.

It is important to note that as rates of death by suicide and suspected suicide vary across the country, while this surveillance is not yet based on all of England, figures will be affected by which PFAs are included. For example, if data from some areas where rates are lower are included, while data from other areas with higher rates excluded, the effect will be that the England rates may appear low.

Although report production is based on allowing sufficient time for data to be representative, it must be recognised that recent months are most likely to be missing some cases.

Delayed records will be included within the next possible update.

New in this update

This surveillance report is revised every 3 months. Each update includes new data for the most recent time period and any additional delayed records for previously published months.

The January 2025 report includes:

• new data for September and October 2024 and the removal of data for June and July 2023 so that reporting covers the most recent 15 month period
• new data for quarter 3 (July to September) 2024 and removal of quarter 2 (April to June) 2023 so that reporting covers the most recent 5 quarters
• additional data for the months January to August 2024, due to delayed submissions by some PFAs
• recalculated monthly rates and quarterly proportions for the months affected by delayed submissions

Findings

Monthly rates

This section presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide in England for the period August 2023 to October 2024. The rates are presented as DSRs per 100,000 population.

Monthly rates are presented for:

• persons
• sex as female and male
• age groups as 10 to 24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and 65 years and over

Between August 2023 and October 2024 out of 5,464 deaths:

• 4,065 (74.4%) were in males and 1,399 (25.6%) in females
• 571 (10.5%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 2,003 (36.7%) in people aged 25 to 44, 2,098 (38.4%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 792 (14.5%) in people aged 65 and over

In October 2024 out of 308 deaths:

• 226 (73.4%) were in males and 82 (26.6%) in females
• 35 (11.4%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 105 (34.1%) in people aged 25 to 44, 124 (40.3%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 44 (14.3%) in people aged 65 and over

Figure 1: suspected suicide rates in England, persons, August 2023 to October 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 1 shows that:

• the DSR for October 2024 is 9.5 deaths per 100,000 population
• October 2024, alongside February 2024 (9.7) and August 2024 and December 2023 (both 10.0) have the lowest rates in the reporting period, however these rates are not statistically significantly different to the majority of reported months
• within the reporting period, January 2024 (12.7) has the highest rate, which is statistically significantly higher than 7 of the reported months
• except for a higher rate in January 2024, months across the reporting period show relatively consistent rates
• where comparable data is presented, for August and October rates are lower in 2024 than in 2023, however these differences are not statistically significant

Figure 2: suspected suicide rates in England, males, August 2023 to October 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 2 shows that:

• the DSR for October 2024 is 14.4 deaths per 100,000 males
• October 2024, alongside August 2024 (14.9) and December 2023 (15.0) have the lowest rates in the reporting period, however these rates are not statistically significantly different to the majority of reported months
• within the reporting period, rates are high in January 2024 (19.1) and in June (17.6) and July 2024 (17.7)
• between February and August 2024 there is some suggestion of increasing rates, however more recent months in the reporting period show lower rates - this will be monitored
• where comparable data is presented, for August and October rates are lower in 2024 than in 2023, however these differences are not statistically significant

Figure 3: suspected suicide rates in England, females, August 2023 to October 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 3 shows that:

• the DSR for October 2024 is 5.0 deaths per 100,000 females
• the rate for October 2024 is 12% lower than September 2024 (5.7), however the difference to the previous and other months in the reporting period is not statistically significant
• the highest rates in the reporting period are in January 2024 (6.6) and October 2023 (6.2)
• where comparable data is presented, rates in 2023 and 2024 are similar for August and September, however October is 19% lower in 2024 - these differences are not statistically significant

Figure 4: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 10 to 24, August 2023 to October 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 4 shows that:

• the DSR for October 2024 is 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population
• the rate for October 2024 is higher than the most recent months, August 2024 (4.1) and September 2024 (5.2), however these differences are not statistically significant
• within the reporting period, high rates are seen in July 2024 and January 2024 (both 7.1), and in April 2024 (6.6)
• where comparable data is presented, rates are higher in 2024 for August (8%), lower for September (10%) and higher for October (15%) compared to 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

Figure 5: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 25 to 44, August 2023 to October 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 5 shows that:

• the DSR for October 2024 is 10.5 deaths per 100,000 population
• February, April and October 2024 (all 10.5) have the lowest rate in the reporting period - these differences are not statistically significant
• October 2024 is 27% lower than September 2024 (14.3) - this difference is not statistically significant
• the highest rates in the reporting period are recorded in January 2024 (14.7), November 2023 (14.6), October 2023 and September 2024 (both 14.3)
• where comparable data is presented, rates are lower in 2024 for August (14%), higher for September (12%), and lower for October (27%) compared to 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

Figure 6: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 45 to 64, August 2023 to October 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 6 shows that:

• the DSR for October 2024 is 13.3 deaths per 100,000 population
• within the reporting period the highest rate is seen in January 2024 (17.1)
• there is a suggestion of decreasing rates across 2024 (January to October), however these differences are not statistically significant
• where comparable data is presented, rates are similar for August and October, but September is 13% higher in 2023 than in 2024 - this difference is not statistically significant

Figure 7: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 65 and over, August 2023 to October 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 7 shows that:

• the DSR for October 2024 is 6.5 deaths per 100,000 population
• October 2024 is the third month in a row that has seen a reduction in rate, however these rates are not statistically significantly different from any month in the reporting period
• the highest rates in the reporting period are seen in July 2024 (9.2), January 2024 (8.7), May 2024 (8.5) and October 2023 (8.3)
• there is some indication of higher rates being seen in the early and mid summer months - this will be monitored
• where comparable data is presented, rates in 2024 are higher for August and September (both 4%) but lower for October (22%) when compared to 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

Method of death by suspected suicide

This section presents quarterly proportions of deaths by suspected suicide in England by method group. The quarters correspond to the following months:

• quarter 1 (Q1) covers January, February and March
• quarter 2 (Q2) covers April, May and June
• quarter 3 (Q3) covers July, August and September
• quarter 4 (Q4) covers October, November and December

The data is for the period Q3 2023 to Q3 2024.

Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, 6,595 suspected suicides were recorded with:

• 1,340 in Q3 2023
• 1,306 in Q4 2023
• 1,354 in Q1 2024
• 1,306 in Q2 2024
• 1,289 in Q3 2024

Data is presented for persons aged 10 and over, using the following method groups:

• hanging, suffocation and strangulation (3,600 deaths)
• poisoning (1,527 deaths)
• jumping or lying in front of a moving object (373 deaths)
• fall and fracture (366 deaths)
• other or unknown (323 deaths)
• drowning (274 deaths)
• sharp object (217 deaths)

Please note that for some deaths more than one method is recorded.

Figure 8: proportion of deaths by suspected suicide method group in England, persons, Q3 2023 to Q3 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 8 shows that:

• across the 5 quarters presented, for method type ‘hanging, suffocation and strangulation’ and ‘jumping or lying in front of a moving object’, the proportions are highest in Q3 2024 - ‘hanging, suffocation and strangulation’ had a similar proportion in Q3 2023, whereas for ‘jumping or lying in front of a moving object’ the proportion has increased across the 5 quarters
• for method type ‘drowning’, the proportion in Q3 2024 (3.1%) is the lowest in the reporting period - there was an increase across the first 3 quarters from Q3 2023 (3.8%) to Q1 2024 (4.8%)
• for ‘poisoning’, the proportion in Q3 2024 is similar to the previous quarter - the proportions are highest in autumn and winter quarters (Q4 2023 and Q1 2024)
• in all reported quarters ‘hanging, suffocation and strangulation’ is the most common method type, accounting for more than half of all deaths
• ‘poisoning’ is the second highest method type across all quarters, accounting for over 20% of all deaths
• there is some indication of an increase in the method type ‘jumping or lying in front of a moving object’ between Q3 2023 (4.6%) and Q3 2024 (7.2%)

For some method groups, the quarterly number of deaths by suspected suicide is small and this should be considered when interpreting changes in proportions. The number of deaths by method group and reporting quarter are available in the data tables.

Basis for reporting

Although from the same source, the basis for monthly and quarterly figures in this report are different. This reflects data quality and approach to data presentation.

Monthly reporting is based on the 15 months from August 2023 to October 2024. Reporting for October 2024 is based on data from 28 of 39 PFAs in England. The data points for the 14 months prior to October 2024 are based on between 28 and 33 PFAs.

The PFAs, and the populations within them, that are excluded from monthly reporting will affect the monthly rates. To help understand this, missing PFAs are categorised as having low, medium or high rates based on historical suicides. Knowing this helps understand if missing data is likely to lead to the reported figures skewing high, low or being broadly representative of England.

For October 2024, missing PFAs accounted for 23.3% of England’s population. Of this population, 7.6% were categorised as low, 13.8% as medium and 2.0% as high. An overview of populations excluded for each month covered in this report is available in the data tables.  

Reporting for October 2024 is based on 308 records. Overall, there were 367 suspected suicide records received. However, due to data quality issues, 59 could not be included. The data points for the 14 months prior to October 2024 are based on between 333 and 442 suspected suicide records, drawn from between 405 and 505 received records. The overall 15 month report is based on 5,464 records.

Reporting for the month October 2024 is based on PFAs that cover 76.7% of the population in England aged 10 and over. The data points for the 14 months prior to October 2024 are based on between 79.9% and 87.9% of this population.

Quarterly reporting is based on the 15 months from July 2023 to September 2024. All PFAs in England submitted some records during that period. However, not all PFAs submitted data every month, and some monthly submissions were likely to be under reporting. Quarterly reporting is based on all records received but it is not based on all suspected suicide cases in England during the period.

Detail on suspected suicide records and proportions of the English population covered for each month are available in the data tables.

Acknowledgement

This report draws upon data from across England supplied by local PFAs submitting to the NPCC. Without their collaboration this work would not have been possible.

Background and further information

This work is supported and enhanced by continuing feedback and input from:

• members of the nRTSSS System Leadership Group

• local suicide prevention teams and police force areas

Responsible statistician:

Head of Intelligence (Mental Health Intelligence Network, the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID))

Product leads:

• Programme Lead (Mental Health Intelligence Network, OHID)

• Deputy Director (Clinical Epidemiology, OHID)

This report complies with: 

• Samaritans’ media guidelines for reporting suicide

• the code of practice for statistics

For queries relating to this publication please contact mhin@dhsc.gov.uk