Official Statistics

Final proven reoffending statistics for Community Rehabilitation Companies and the National Probation Service

Published 28 October 2021

Applies to England and Wales

© Crown copyright 2021

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2020/final-proven-reoffending-statistics-for-community-rehabilitation-companies-and-the-national-probation-service

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October to December 2019

1. Main points

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the October to December 2019 offender cohorts being managed by Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRC) under Payment by Results (PbR) arrangements, and the National Probation Service (NPS).
Community Rehabilitation Companies  
Eighteen CRCs achieved significant reductions in the binary rate Eighteen CRCs in the October to December 2019 cohort will receive a payment for statistically significant reductions in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
None of the CRCs saw significant increases in the binary rate None of the CRCs in the October to December 2019 cohort will receive a financial deduction for statistically significant increases in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
National Probation Service  
Decrease in the overall NPS binary rate The overall binary rate for offenders managed by the NPS in the October to December 2019 cohort was 34.2%, representing a 3.3 percentage point decrease compared to the October to December 2015 cohort.
No change in the overall NPS frequency rate The overall frequency rate for offenders managed by the NPS in the October to December 2019 cohort was 3.97, representing no change compared to the October to December 2015 cohort.

2. Statistician’s comment

“This report covers final proven reoffending results for the October to December 2019 offender cohorts being managed by CRCs under PbR arrangements. A proven reoffence is measured over a one-year follow-up period and a further six-month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court.[footnote 1]

On 23 March 2020, the first set of lockdown restrictions were put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.[footnote 2] These measures, which included limited court activity, led to a sharp decrease in the number of cases processed at the criminal courts between March and May 2020. While more recent figures are showing signs of recovery, the impact of the pandemic on the courts is still evident, particularly in the outstanding caseload and court timeliness performance.[footnote 3] In addition, police recorded crime figures fell substantially during the first lockdown period, decreasing by 19% in April to June 2020 compared to the same quarter in 2019. Specifically, of all main offence groups, the greatest decreases were observed in theft and robbery offences (reductions of 43% and 47% respectively over the same period).[footnote 4]

The October to December 2019 cohort represents the first cohort for which the first national lockdown falls entirely within the reoffending follow-up period. The reoffending results for this cohort show that the measures taken as a result of the pandemic continue to affect the number of CRCs (18 in total) receiving payments for statistically significant reductions in binary reoffending. Additionally, the follow-up period for this cohort now coincides with the second national lockdown which began on 5 November and ended on 2 December 2020, as well as the multi-tiered system of restrictions which followed thereafter. While there were no court closures over the second lockdown and subsequent periods of restriction, crime levels over this time decreased substantially compared to the same time a year ago and this too will likely have some impact on reoffending levels.

While 18 CRCs received payments for improvements in binary reoffending for the latest cohort period, this number has ranged from 15 to 20 for offender cohorts that were affected by the pandemic.[footnote 5] For pre-pandemic offender cohorts[footnote 6] between October 2015 and September 2018, this number has ranged from nine to 17.

It is worth noting that the phased lifting of the first set of lockdown restrictions[footnote 7] also coincides with the follow-up period of the latest offender cohort; future releases of this bulletin will, therefore, help to establish what the likely effects are as the courts work through their backlog of cases.”

3. Introduction

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the July to September 2019 and October to December 2019 offender cohorts that are being managed by CRCs under PbR arrangements. These results reflect the changes to the CRC contracts,[footnote 8] announced in 2018, which resulted in an adjustment to the binary measure and a change to the frequency baseline[footnote 9] against which CRCs are compared.

It is worth noting that a new unified model for Probation Services in England and Wales was introduced at the end of June 2021 when current contracts for CRCs ended. Under the new model, all sentence management for low, medium and high-risk offenders will be carried out by the Probation Service rather than contracted providers. However, given the time lags inherent in the proven reoffending measure, reporting of PbR results will continue until the end of the reoffending follow-up periods for all offender cohorts managed by CRCs under PbR arrangements.

The one-year proven reoffending measures used to assess CRC performance are:

  • the binary rate (proportion of offenders who reoffend); and
  • the frequency rate (the average number of reoffences per reoffender)

The binary rate for each CRC is subject to an adjustment for changes in the case mix of offenders being supervised, using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), version 4/G,[footnote 10] to allow performance to be assessed against the baseline year of 2011.[footnote 11] This is referred to as the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate.

The publication also includes final results for the National Probation Service (NPS). However, please note that final results for the NPS have not changed as a result of the contract variations since they are not compared against a baseline threshold in the same way.

3.1 Contract variation

Under contract variations, the following changes have been made to the binary and frequency measures, for assessing CRC performance:

  1. An additional adjustment has been made to the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate to account for a change in the data source in October 2015, as explained in the published technical note.[footnote 12]

  2. As announced in the ‘Strengthening probation, building confidence’ consultation document,[footnote 13] the baseline year, against which CRC performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared, has now changed. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained the 2011 baseline.

Both adjustments were applied retrospectively to all final CRC cohorts in the October 2018 bulletin.[footnote 14]

To aid the user, and in the interests of transparency, the accompanying tables include the actual binary rates before any adjustments alongside the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary rates and 2018 contract-adjusted binary rates. Further information on these changes is available in section 4.

From this point forward, the 2018 contract-adjusted binary rate will be referred to as the adjusted binary rate.

For technical detail on how proven reoffending is measured, please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 15]

4. Final results

Final results are based on a cohort of offenders being managed by CRCs in the community under PbR arrangements, and by the NPS. All offenders have been subject to the full one-year follow-up period and the additional six-month waiting period as detailed in the guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 16]

Reporting of proven reoffending rates for offenders managed by CRCs is based on comparisons with 2011 baseline reoffending rates. Comparisons of performance between different CRCs and previous cohorts can now be made by comparing the adjusted binary rates.

Payments on the binary rate will be made only for achieving statistically significant reductions in reoffending compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rate. Deductions will be applied for statistically significant increases. We cannot say which CRCs have met their frequency rate targets from a single quarterly cohort as frequency rate targets are based on annual cohorts only.

Commentary within this bulletin on proven reoffending rates for offenders managed by the NPS is based on comparisons against the October to December 2015 offender cohort, i.e. the first cohort for which reoffending rates were measured since the start of Transforming Rehabilitation.[footnote 17]

It remains the case, however, that comparisons cannot be made between CRCs and the NPS due to differences in the offenders being managed.

4.1 Community Rehabilitation Companies

  1. Eighteen of the 21 CRCs in the October to December 2019 cohort will receive a payment for achieving statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

  2. None of the CRCs in the October to December 2019 cohort saw a statistically significant increase in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

  3. The remaining three CRCs in the October to December 2019 cohort will not receive a payment or deduction on the adjusted binary reoffending rate.

Figure 1: Final adjusted binary rates for the October to December 2019 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, October to December 2019, England and Wales)

Final adjusted binary rates for the October to December 2019 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, October to December 2019, England and Wales)

Figure 2: Number of CRCs in the payment, non-payment and deduction regions in each final cohort for the binary measure (Source: Tables A1 to A17, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, and October to December 2019, England and Wales)[footnote 18]

Number of CRCs in the payment, non-payment and deduction regions in each final cohort for the binary measure (Source: Tables A1 to A17, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, and October to December 2019, England and Wales)

4.2 National Probation Service

In October to December 2019, the overall binary reoffending rate for offenders managed by the NPS was 34.2%, representing a 3.3 percentage point decrease compared to October to December 2015. Specifically, six NPS regions saw reductions in the binary rate, while NPS North East saw an increase of 0.8 percentage points. Furthermore, to date, the binary rate for only one NPS region (NPS Midlands) has consistently remained below the binary rate for the October to December 2015 cohort.

At 3.97 reoffences per reoffender, the overall frequency rate for the October to December 2019 cohort remains around the same level observed for the October to December 2015 cohort. Regionally, two NPS regions saw decreases in the frequency rate over the same period (decreases of 4.6% for NPS London and 5.6% for NPS North East), four saw increases ranging from 0.3% (NPS South East and Eastern) to 5.1% (NPS South West and South Central), and NPS Midlands saw no change in its rate. Furthermore, except for the latest cohort, the frequency rate for NPS Midlands has always been higher than the frequency rate for the October to December 2015 cohort.

5. Changes to the CRC contracts and implications for the final results

Adjustment to the binary result

  1. The data source for offender starts in each PbR cohort changed between the procurement process for CRC contracts and the measurement of outcomes for the first PbR cohort: moving from pNOMIS (prison releases) and Form 20 (community order / suspended sentence starts) to nDelius (the case management system for probation).

  2. The MoJ explored the reoffending results and found a difference in the overall binary reoffending measure resulting from the change in the data source.[footnote 19] Further analysis found this would have had a subsequent impact on the PbR mechanism, i.e. the ‘adjusted’ binary rate that incorporates OGRS4/G adjustments.

  3. Consequently, the MoJ decided to make an adjustment to the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate for all CRCs. The adjustment is a reduction in the binary reoffending rate of 0.44 percentage points. Further information on the data source adjustment and the analysis is available in the published technical note.[footnote 20]

Adjustment to the frequency result

  1. In July 2018, the MoJ launched a public consultation about the future of probation services.[footnote 21] In order to stabilise probation delivery in the immediate term, the MoJ announced an adjustment to the baseline year against which performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared. This was to better reflect the performance of providers since contracts began.

  2. As a result, all CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 frequency baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline.

Both the adjustment to the frequency and binary measures were applied retrospectively and revised results for cohorts October to December 2015 through to July to September 2016 were published in October 2018.

6. Further information

Final results presented in this publication are based on a one-year proven reoffending rate. Upcoming publications of final results are listed in the following table:

Cohort Published in
January to March 2020, and 2019/20 January 2022
April to June 2020 April 2022
July to September 2020 July 2022
October to December 2020 October 2022

6.1 Accompanying files

As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

  • A technical document providing detail on how reoffending is measured, information on how the data is collected and processed, and background information on the Transforming Rehabilitation reforms.

  • A data quality statement which outlines our policies for producing quality statistical outputs and the information provided to maintain our users’ understanding and trust.

  • A set of tables providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS.

  • A data tool providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS, by age group and gender.

6.2 Future publications

Our statisticians regularly review the content of publications. Development of new and improved statistical outputs is usually dependent on reallocating existing resources. As part of our continual review and prioritisation, we welcome user feedback on existing outputs including content, breadth, frequency and methodology.

6.3 Contact

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:
    Tel: 020 3334 3536
    Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries and feedback on these statistics should be directed to the Data and Evidence as a Service division of the Ministry of Justice:
    Liz Whiting, Head of Reducing Reoffending and Probation Data and Statistics Team
    Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ
    Email: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Next update: 27 January 2022
URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/payment-by-results-statistics

© Crown copyright
Produced by the Ministry of Justice
Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2021

  1. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2020 ↩

  2. With a phased reopening through to summer 2020 (including a limited number of jury trials resuming from 18 May 2020). ↩

  3. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-court-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2021 ↩

  4. The April to June 2020 figures and trends in police recorded crime can be found at: ↩

  5. Includes offender cohorts between October 2018 and December 2019. ↩

  6. The reoffending follow-up and waiting periods for “pre-pandemic” offender cohorts do not coincide with the COVID-19 lockdown measures. ↩

  7. Including the phased reopening of the courts. ↩

  8. Voluntary ex ante transparency (VEAT) notices for all CRCs were published in July and August 2018. Please see example: https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:335172-2018:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0 ↩

  9. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 frequency baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline. ↩

  10. Further information on the Offender Group Reconviction Scale 4/G can be found in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2020 ↩

  11. The 2011 PbR baselines and associated methodology documents are available at: www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  12. www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-community-rehabilitation-companies-contracts ↩

  13. https://consult.justice.gov.uk/hm-prisons-and-probation/strengthening-probation-building-confidence ↩

  14. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2017 ↩

  15. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2020 ↩

  16. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2020 ↩

  17. www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  18. Two contract variations associated with the binary and frequency measures of reoffending were agreed with CRCs in 2018. ↩

  19. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/658380/how-the-measure-of-reoffending-has-changed-and-the-effect-of-these-changes.pdf ↩

  20. www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-community-rehabilitation-companies-contracts ↩

  21. https://consult.justice.gov.uk/hm-prisons-and-probation/strengthening-probation-building-confidence/ ↩

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