Official Statistics

Final proven reoffending statistics for Community Rehabilitation Companies and the National Probation Service, January to March 2020 and 2019/20

Published 27 January 2022

Applies to England and Wales

© Crown copyright 2022

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-march-2021/final-proven-reoffending-statistics-for-community-rehabilitation-companies-and-the-national-probation-service-january-to-march-2020-and-201920

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1. Main points

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the January to March 2020 and 2019/20 offender cohorts managed by Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRC) under Payment by Results (PbR) arrangements, and the National Probation Service (NPS).
January to March 2020  
Twenty CRCs achieved significant reductions in the binary rate Twenty CRCs in the January to March 2020 cohort will receive a payment for statistically significant reductions in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
None of the CRCs saw significant increases in the binary rate None of the CRCs in the January to March 2020 cohort will receive a financial deduction for statistically significant increases in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
Decrease in the overall NPS binary rate The overall binary rate for offenders managed by the NPS in the January to March 2020 cohort was 34.1%, representing a 3.4 percentage point decrease compared to the October to December 2015 cohort.
Decrease in the overall NPS frequency rate The overall frequency rate for offenders managed by the NPS in the January to March 2020 cohort was 3.93, representing a decrease of 0.9% compared to the October to December 2015 cohort.
2019/20  
Twenty-one CRCs achieved significant reductions in the binary rate All 21 CRCs in the 2019/20 annual cohort will receive a payment for statistically significant reductions in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
None of the CRCs saw significant increases in the binary rate None of the CRCs in the 2019/20 annual cohort will receive a financial deduction for statistically significant increases in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline.
Sixteen CRCs met their frequency rate targets and passed their binary hurdle Sixteen CRCs will receive a payment for meeting their frequency rate targets and achieving an improvement in the binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline (binary hurdle).
Five CRCs did not meet their frequency rate targets Financial deductions will apply to the remaining five CRCs as they did not meet their frequency rate targets.

2. Statistician’s comment

“This report covers final proven reoffending results for the January to March 2020 and 2019/20 offender cohorts managed by CRCs under PbR arrangements.[footnote 1] A proven reoffence is measured over a one-year follow-up period and a further six-month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court.[footnote 2]

The reoffending follow-up period for the January to March 2020 offender cohort continues to overlap with the first set of lockdown restrictions; these restrictions included limits on court activity which led to sharp decreases in the number of cases processed at the criminal court.[footnote 3] The reoffending follow-up period for this cohort also begins to overlap with both the second and third national lockdowns.[footnote 4] While there were no court closures during these two latter lockdowns, police recorded crime data have shown overall reductions in the reporting and recording of many crime types during periods of lockdown.[footnote 5] Additionally, the tail-end of the January to March 2020 offender cohort period itself also coincides with the first lockdown period, which may have contributed to a slightly lower volume of individuals entering the cohort.

While 20 CRCs received payments for improvements in binary reoffending for the latest quarterly cohort, this number has ranged from 15 to 20 for offender cohorts that were affected by the pandemic.[footnote 6] For pre-pandemic offender cohorts[footnote 7] between October 2015 and September 2018, this number has ranged from nine to 17.

Results for the 2019/20 annual offender cohort show that all 21 CRCs will receive a payment on the binary measure of reoffending. Furthermore, 16 CRCs in this annual cohort will receive a payment for meeting their frequency rate targets and achieving an improvement in the adjusted binary rate (also known as the binary hurdle).

It is worth noting that the impact of the pandemic on reoffending figures yet to be reported may continue for some time as the offender cohorts themselves as well as associated reoffending follow-up and waiting periods progress through the periods of lockdown.”

3. Introduction

This publication provides the final proven reoffending results for the January to March 2020 and 2019/20 offender cohorts managed by CRCs under PbR arrangements. These results reflect the changes to the CRC contracts,[footnote 8] announced in 2018, which resulted in an adjustment to the binary measure and a change to the frequency baseline[footnote 9] against which CRCs are compared.

It is worth noting that, at the end of June 2021, CRC contracts ended and a new unified model for Probation Services was introduced in England and Wales. Under the new model, all sentence management for low, medium and high-risk offenders is carried out by the Probation Service rather than contracted providers. To note, though, offender management transitioned earlier from Wales CRC to the unified model area of NPS Wales in December 2019. Given the time lags inherent in the proven reoffending measure, reporting of the reoffending results under PbR arrangements will continue until the measurement period of proven reoffending for all offender cohorts managed by the CRCs and the NPS has come to an end.

The one-year proven reoffending measures used to assess CRC performance are:

  • the binary rate (proportion of offenders who reoffend); and
  • the frequency rate (the average number of reoffences per reoffender)

The binary rate for each CRC is subject to an adjustment for changes in the case mix of offenders being supervised, using the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), version 4/G,[footnote 10] to allow performance to be assessed against the baseline year of 2011.[footnote 11] This is referred to as the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate.

The publication also includes final results for the NPS. However, please note that final results for the NPS have not changed as a result of the contract variations since they are not compared against a baseline threshold in the same way.

3.1 Contract variation

Under contract variations, the following changes have been made to the binary and frequency measures, for assessing CRC performance:

  1. An additional adjustment has been made to the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate to account for a change in the data source in October 2015, as explained in the published technical note.[footnote 12]

  2. As announced in the ‘Strengthening probation, building confidence’ consultation document,[footnote 13] the baseline year, against which CRC performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared, has now changed. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained the 2011 baseline.

Both adjustments were applied retrospectively to all final CRC cohorts in the October 2018 bulletin.[footnote 14]

To aid the user, and in the interests of transparency, the accompanying tables include the actual binary rates before any adjustments alongside the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary rates and 2018 contract-adjusted binary rates. Further information on these changes is available in the section on ‘Changes to the CRC contracts and implications for the final results’.

From this point forward, the 2018 contract-adjusted binary rate will be referred to as the adjusted binary rate.

For technical detail on how proven reoffending is measured, please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 15]

4. Final results

Final results are based on a cohort of offenders who were managed by CRCs in the community under PbR arrangements, and by the NPS. All offenders have been subject to the full one-year follow-up period and the additional six-month waiting period as detailed in the guide to proven reoffending statistics.[footnote 16]

Reporting of proven reoffending rates for offenders who were managed by CRCs is based on comparisons with 2011 baseline reoffending rates. Comparisons of performance between different CRCs and previous cohorts can be made by comparing the adjusted binary rates.

Payments on the adjusted binary rate will be made only for achieving statistically significant reductions in reoffending compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rate. Deductions will be applied for statistically significant increases.

Payments or deductions on the frequency rate are made on the annual cohort only. In addition, payments will only be made for improvements on the frequency rate if the adjusted binary rate is lower than the 2011 baseline reoffending rate (the binary hurdle).

Commentary within this bulletin on proven reoffending rates for offenders who were managed by the NPS is based on comparisons against the October to December 2015 offender cohort, i.e. the first cohort for which reoffending rates were measured since the start of Transforming Rehabilitation.[footnote 17]

Comparisons cannot be made between CRCs and the NPS due to differences in the offenders being managed.

4.1 Community Rehabilitation Companies

January to March 2020

  1. All 20 CRCs in the January to March 2020 cohort will receive a payment for achieving statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates. Note that in this and future quarterly cohorts, there will be no results for Wales CRC as offender management transferred to NPS Wales in December 2019.

  2. None of the CRCs in the January to March 2020 cohort saw a statistically significant increase in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

2019/20

The results for the 2019/20 annual cohort combine the final results from the quarterly cohorts: April to June 2019, July to September 2019, October to December 2019 and January to March 2020.

  1. All 21 CRCs in the 2019/20 cohort will receive a payment for achieving statistically significant reductions in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates. Note that, due to the transition of offender management from Wales CRC to NPS Wales in December 2019, the 2019/20 annual cohort for Wales CRC is based upon three quarterly cohorts only (i.e. it excludes the cohort period for January to March 2020).

  2. None of the CRCs in the 2019/20 cohort saw a statistically significant increase in the adjusted binary reoffending rate when compared to the 2011 baseline reoffending rates.

  3. Sixteen CRCs in the 2019/20 cohort will receive a payment for meeting their frequency rate targets and achieving an improvement in the adjusted binary rate compared to the 2011 baseline (binary hurdle).

  4. Financial deductions will apply to the remaining five CRCs as they did not meet their frequency rate targets.

Figure 1: Final adjusted binary rates for the January to March 2020 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, January to March 2020and 2019/20, England and Wales)[footnote 18]

Figure 1: Final adjusted binary rates for the January to March 2020 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table A1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, January to March 2020 and 2019/20, England and Wales)

Figure 2: Final frequency rates for the 2019/20 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table C1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, January to March 2020 and 2019/20, England and Wales)[footnote 19]^,^[footnote 20]

Figure 2: Final frequency rates for the 2019/20 Payment by Results offender cohorts, by CRC (Source: Table C1, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, January to March 2020 and 2019/20, England and Wales)

Figure 3: Number of CRCs in the payment, non-payment and deduction regions in each final cohort for the binary measure (Source: Tables A1 to A18, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, January to March 2020 and 2019/20, England and Wales)[footnote 21]^,^[footnote 22]

Figure 3: Number of CRCs in the payment, non-payment and deduction regions in each final cohort for the binary measure (Source: Tables A1 to A18, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, Jan to Mar 2020 and 2019/20, England and Wales)

Figure 4: Number of CRCs in payment, non-payment and deduction regions for the frequency measure in each final cohort (Source: Tables C1 to C5, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, January to March 2020 and 2019/20, England and Wales)[footnote 23]^,^[footnote 24]

Figure 4: Number of CRCs in payment, non-payment and deduction regions for the frequency measure in each final cohort (Source: Tables C1 to C5, Final proven reoffending statistics for CRCs and the NPS, January to March 2020 and 2019/20, England and Wales)

4.2 National Probation Service[footnote 25]

In January to March 2020, the overall binary reoffending rate for offenders managed by the NPS was 34.1%, representing a 3.4 percentage point decrease compared to October to December 2015. Over this period, all seven NPS regions saw reductions (ranging from 0.4 percentage points for NPS South East and Eastern to 8.44 percentage points for NPS Midlands) in the binary rate. Furthermore, in the latest cohort, NPS Wales continues to have the highest binary rate at 38.0%, while NPS Midlands and NPS South West and South Central have the lowest at 30.6%.

The overall frequency rate for the January to March 2020 cohort decreased by 0.9% to 3.93 reoffences per reoffender compared to October to December 2015. Regionally, NPS Midlands and NPS North East saw decreases of 1.0% and 7.8% respectively in the frequency rate over the same period, while the remaining five NPS regions saw increases ranging from 0.3% for NPS North West to 3.9% for NPS South West and South Central. NPS South West and South Central continues to have the highest rate at 4.26 reoffences per reoffender. Meanwhile, NPS London has the lowest at 3.65 reoffences per reoffender.

It is worth noting that, as both the overall binary and frequency rates continue to fall, they are now at their lowest levels since the introduction of the Transforming Rehabilitation reforms.

5. Changes to the CRC contracts and implications for the final results

5.1 Adjustment to the binary result

  1. The data source for offender starts in each PbR cohort changed between the procurement process for CRC contracts and the measurement of outcomes for the first PbR cohort: moving from pNOMIS (prison releases) and Form 20 (community order / suspended sentence starts) to nDelius (the case management system for probation).

  2. The MoJ explored the reoffending results and found a difference in the overall binary reoffending measure resulting from the change in the data source.[footnote 26] Further analysis found this would have had a subsequent impact on the PbR mechanism, i.e. the ‘adjusted’ binary rate that incorporates OGRS4/G adjustments.

  3. Consequently, the MoJ decided to make an adjustment to the OGRS4/G-adjusted binary reoffending rate for all CRCs. The adjustment is a reduction in the binary reoffending rate of 0.44 percentage points. Further information on the data source adjustment and the analysis is available in the published technical note.[footnote 27]

5.2 Adjustment to the frequency result

  1. In July 2018, the MoJ launched a public consultation about the future of probation services.[footnote 28] In order to stabilise probation delivery in the immediate term, the MoJ announced an adjustment to the baseline year against which performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared. This was to better reflect the performance of providers since contracts began.

  2. As a result, all CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 frequency baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline.

Both the adjustment to the frequency and binary measures were applied retrospectively and revised results for cohorts October to December 2015 through to July to September 2016 were published in October 2018.

6. Further information

Final results presented in this publication are based on a one-year proven reoffending rate. Upcoming publications of final results are listed in the following table:

Cohort Published in
April to June 2020 April 2022
July to September 2020 July 2022
October to December 2020 October 2022

6.1 Accompanying files

As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

  • A technical document providing detail on how reoffending is measured, information on how the data is collected and processed, and background information on the Transforming Rehabilitation reforms.

  • A data quality statement which outlines our policies for producing quality statistical outputs and the information provided to maintain our users’ understanding and trust.

  • A set of tables providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS.

  • A data tool providing final proven reoffending data for the CRCs and NPS, by age group and gender.

6.2 Future publications

Our statisticians regularly review the content of publications. Development of new and improved statistical outputs is usually dependent on reallocating existing resources. As part of our continual review and prioritisation, we welcome user feedback on existing outputs including content, breadth, frequency and methodology.

6.3 Contact

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:
    Tel: 020 3334 3536
    Email: newsdesk@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Other enquiries and feedback on these statistics should be directed to the Data and Evidence as a Service division of the Ministry of Justice:
    Liz Whiting, Head of Reducing Reoffending and Probation Data and Statistics Team
    Ministry of Justice, 7th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ
    Email: statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

Next update: 28 April 2022
URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/payment-by-results-statistics

© Crown copyright
Produced by the Ministry of Justice
Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk

  1. To note, offender management transitioned from Wales CRC to the unified model area of NPS Wales in December 2019 so will not have associated PbR-based figures for the quarterly period January to March 2020. ↩

  2. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-march-2021 ↩

  3. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-court-statistics-quarterly-april-to-june-2021 ↩

  4. The first national lockdown was implemented on 23 March 2020 and transitioned to phased reopening until August 2020 (including a limited number of jury trials resuming from 18 May 2020). The second national lockdown was implemented on 5 November 2020 and returned to a three-tier restriction system from 2 December 2020. The third national lockdown was implemented on 6 January 2021 and transitioned to phased reopening until June 2021. ↩

  5. Police recorded crime figures (including monthly trends) can be found at: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingjune2021#overall-estimates-of-crime ↩

  6. Includes offender cohorts between October 2018 and December 2019. ↩

  7. The reoffending follow-up and waiting periods for “pre-pandemic” offender cohorts do not coincide with the COVID-19 lockdown measures. ↩

  8. Voluntary ex ante transparency (VEAT) notices for all CRCs were published in July and August 2018. Please see example: https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:335172-2018:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0 ↩

  9. All CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 frequency baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline. ↩

  10. Further information on the Offender Group Reconviction Scale 4/G can be found in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-march-2021 ↩

  11. The 2011 PbR baselines and associated methodology documents are available at: www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  12. www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-community-rehabilitation-companies-contracts ↩

  13. https://consult.justice.gov.uk/hm-prisons-and-probation/strengthening-probation-building-confidence ↩

  14. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-december-2017 ↩

  15. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-march-2021 ↩

  16. A full description of the measure of reoffending is provided in the guide to proven reoffending statistics, which is available at: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/payment-by-results-statistics-october-2015-to-march-2021 ↩

  17. www.gov.uk/government/collections/transforming-rehabilitation ↩

  18. There are no results for Wales CRC as, under the Probation Reform Programme, offender management transferred to NPS Wales in December 2019. ↩

  19. In 2018 an adjustment was made to the baseline year against which performance on the frequency of reoffending is compared. As a result, all CRCs are now compared against a 2015/16 baseline, with the exception of Merseyside CRC, which has retained its 2011 baseline. ↩

  20. Due to the transition of offender management from Wales CRC to NPS Wales in December 2019, the 2019/20 annual cohort for Wales CRC is based upon three quarterly cohorts only. ↩

  21. Two contract variations associated with the binary and frequency measures of reoffending were agreed with CRCs in 2018. ↩

  22. There are no results for Wales CRC in the January to March 2020 offender cohort as, under the Probation Reform Programme, offender management transferred to NPS Wales in December 2019. ↩

  23. Two contract variations associated with the binary and frequency measures of reoffending were agreed with CRCs in 2018. ↩

  24. Due to the transition of offender management from Wales CRC to NPS Wales in December 2019, the 2019/20 annual cohort for Wales CRC is based upon three quarterly cohorts only. ↩

  25. It is worth noting, in relation to this latest quarterly cohort period, there will have been an increase in the number of offenders supervised by NPS Wales as a result of the early transition of offender management from Wales CRC in early December 2019. ↩

  26. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/658380/how-the-measure-of-reoffending-has-changed-and-the-effect-of-these-changes.pdf ↩

  27. www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-community-rehabilitation-companies-contracts ↩

  28. https://consult.justice.gov.uk/hm-prisons-and-probation/strengthening-probation-building-confidence/ ↩

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